Modernization and the Demographic Transition: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of a Revised Model

Abstract

We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Building cultural competence: A systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of culturally sensitive interventions with ethnic minority youth

Growing diversity within the US population accentuates the need for the development and implementation of culturally competent services in the field of child welfare. Despite this, few studies exist that examine the effectiveness of culturally sensitive interventions (CSIs) with ethnic minority populations, who are considerably more at risk of developing psychosocial problems including substance and alcohol abuse, delinquency, low academic achievement, and poor self-esteem. With the demand for evidence-based practice it is imperative that we examine the effectiveness of CSIs designed to prevent and treat youth problems. The main goal of this review was to systematically analyze the methodology of recent CSI research with populations of ethnic minority youth in order to evaluate each intervention's ability to adhere to existing standards of evidence-based practice. The fifteen CSI studies examined in this review illustrate progress in their attempt to adhere to the methodological rigor required of evidence-based practice. This review encourages the field of child welfare to position itself analogously with and embrace the movement toward building cultural competence by further investigating the effectiveness of culturally-sensitive interventions with ethnic minority youth.     

Embedded cultural values and international transaction cost advantages

Culturally embedded differences in self-interested behavior and perceptions of trust violate the universal assumption of moral hazard held by transaction cost economic theorists. A model of transaction cost advantage is derived and propositions developed using the cultural value diversity literature to test the universal assumptions of transaction cost economics.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Interjurisdictional placement of children in foster care

As the population of children in foster care has increased and more children are freed for adoption, foster and adoptive families are needed in ever increasing numbers. One avenue for expanding the pool of families is through placement of children with families in other counties and states. This article considers the policy and practice implications of interjurisdictional placement in the context of foster care, adoption, and kinship care and suggests directions for interjurisdictional adoption practice and policy.     

Physical and mental health effects of being stalked for men and women

Stalking is relatively common yet little is known of the longer-term health effects of stalking. Using the National Violence Against Women survey, we estimated lifetime stalking victimization among women and men, ages 18 to 65, identified correlates of being stalked, and explored the association between being stalked and mental and physical health status. With a criterion of being stalked on more than one occasion and being at least "somewhat afraid," 14.2% of women and 4.3% of men were victims. Among those stalked, 41% of women and 28% of men were stalked by an intimate partner. Women were more than 13 times as likely to be "very afraid" of their stalker than men. Negative health consequences of being stalked were similar for men and women; those stalked were significantly more likely to report poor current health, depression, injury, and substance use. Implications for victims, service providers, and the criminal justice system were reviewed.     

Parenting Assessment in a Psychiatric Mother and Baby Unit

Correspondence to Dr Gertrude Seneviratne, Section of Perinatal Psychiatry, Division of Psychological Medicine, Institute of Psychiatry, De Crespigny Park, London SE5 8AF, UK. E-mail: G.Seneviratne{at}iop.kcl.ac.uk Summary Courts and social services often seek the advice of mental healthprofessionals in deciding whether a mentally ill mother shouldremain the primary carer of her infant. This paper describesthe referral pathways, outcomes at discharge and subsequently,of a sample of mothers referred for parenting assessments toa psychiatric Mother and Baby Unit. A further aim was to examinefactors predicting outcome. A casenote study of sixty-one consecutivereferrals for in-patient parenting assessment over a six-yearperiod is described. Social Services were contacted to establishdevelopments at least nine months after discharge. Fewer thanhalf of the mothers were discharged together with their babiesat the end of the assessment period, and at follow-up, lessthan a third were still caring for their children. Diagnosisof the mother's illness was the main factor determining whethershe continued to care for her child both at discharge and atfollow-up; mothers with depression were more likely to remainprimary carers. Variations in the timing and process of referralsrelated to a lack of antenatal planning were associated withincreased rates of separation of mother and infant before theassessment. The findings illustrate the need for more integratedco-ordination between professionals in mental health and children'sservices to ensure early planning for mothers and infants atrisk.