QUESTION WORDING AND PARTISANSHIP: CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PARTY LOYALTIES DURING THE 1992 ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Gallup macropartisanship varies more over time than aggregatemeasures of partisanship employing the standard Michigan SurveyResearch Center (SRC) party identification measure, but previousanalyses do not provide direct evidence about why Gallup macropartisanshipis more variable. Although these differences could result fromthe short-term focus of the Gallup party affiliation question,aggregate-level analyses cannot test the effects of questionwording directly. Between March and October 1992, we conducteda series of question-wording experiments, employing six statewidecomputer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) surveys of Michiganadults, including a four-wave panel study. Our analyses stronglysuggest that the Gallup measure responds more to short-termpolitical conditions and clearly demonstrate that the Gallupmeasure is less stable over time. These individual-level resultshelp explain why Gallup macropartisanship varies more over timethan aggregate measures of partisanship employing the standardSRC measure and raise questions about the degree to which onecan generalize from analyses using the Gallup data to the researchliterature on party identification.     

Surname analysis for estimating local concentration of Hispanics and Asians

Surname analysis is a potentially useful technique for identifying members of particular racial, ethnic, or language communities within a population. We review the existing state of the art for identifying persons of Hispanic or Asian origin, based on surnames distinctive of each group. We describe the logic of surname analysis, profile several available surname dictionaries, and illustrate their applications in local redistricting. Results of our ongoing validation studies suggest promising future directions for improving accuracy and broadening applications.This article is based on a paper presented at the annual Population Association of America meetings at Cincinnati, 1 April 1993.     

Local polynomial estimation of Poisson intensities in the presence of reporting delays

Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.     

Case study in the Bayesian analysis of a cost‐effectiveness trial in the evaluation of health care technologies: Depression

We present a case study based on a depression study that will illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics in the economic evaluation of cost‐effectiveness data, demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian approach (whilst honestly recognizing any deficiencies) with respect to frequentist methods, and provide details of using the methods, including computer code where appropriate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

"Her" Marriage after the Revolutions

Recent social changes have made husbands' emotional investments and wives' perceptions of equity in the division of housework crucial for women's marital happiness. But wives are also happiest in their marriages when they share a strong normative commitment to lifelong marriage with their husbands and when their husbands take the lead in breadwinning. Thus our research suggests that elements of the new and the old promote marital happiness among contemporary wives.     

Communicating Global Activism

Many observers doubt the capacity of digital media to change the political game. The rise of a transnational activism that is aimed beyond states and directly at corporations, trade and development regimes offers a fruitful area for understanding how communication practices can help create a new politics. The Internet is implicated in the new global activism far beyond merely reducing the costs of communication, or transcending the geographical and temporal barriers associated with other communication media. Various uses of the Internet and digital media facilitate the loosely structured networks, the weak identity ties, and the patterns of issue and demonstration organizing that define a new global protest politics. Analysis of various cases shows how digital network configurations can facilitate: permanent campaigns; the growth of broad networks despite relatively weak social identity and ideology ties; transformation of individual member organizations and whole networks; and the capacity to communicate messages from desktops to television screens. The same qualities that make these communication-based politics durable also make them vulnerable to problems of control, decision-making and collective identity.