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991.
Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems—such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations—it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums. 相似文献
992.
Using data from 7272 adolescent US girls, we explore how girls’ race/ethnic group status affects their bodyweight, perceptions of overweight, and weight control practices. We hypothesize that a girl’s race/ethnic status influences her basic identity which in turn prompts her to adopt or reject a “drive for thinness.” After controlling for family and peer support, school engagement, family SES, maturation, and family structure, we find that girls’ race/ethnic status influences their susceptibility to the thinness ideals of mainstream culture. African American girls weigh more than Asian, Hispanic, or White girls, but at any given weight they perceive themselves as overweight and attempt to control their weight less. Asian American and White girls invest most in thinness dynamics. Some evidence also suggests girls from lower SES families are less driven to be thin. Our results affirm the utility of viewing material bodies as “situations” that are experienced and interpreted in accord with identity group relations and dynamics. 相似文献
993.
Expected Utility Consistent Extensions of Preferences 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
We consider the problem of extending a (complete) order over a set to its power set. The extension axioms we consider generate
orderings over sets according to their expected utilities induced by some assignment of utilities over alternatives and probability
distributions over sets. The model we propose gives a general and unified exposition of expected utility consistent extensions
whilst it allows to emphasize various subtleties, the effects of which seem to be underestimated – particularly in the literature
on strategy-proof social choice correspondences.
相似文献
994.
Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows
probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the
Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead
to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations
can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces
people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments
do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing
Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and
regret all interact and effect decision quality.
相似文献
995.
Eric G. Lambert Nancy L. Hogan O. Oko Elechi Shanhe Jiang John M. Laux Paula Dupuy Angela Morris 《The Social Science Journal》2009
Working in corrections is not only a demanding job, but a socially important one. While a growing number of studies have examined how the work environment impacts the job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment of staff, very few studies have examined how working in corrections impacts the life satisfaction of workers. The current study utilized OLS regression to examine the antecedents of life satisfaction among staff at a Midwestern private prison. Job satisfaction had a positive relationship with life satisfaction, while age, work on family conflict, family on work conflict, and job involvement all had statistically significant negative effects. Finally, perceptions of the level of financial rewards, job stress, organizational commitment, gender, race, educational level, tenure, supervisory status, position, marital status, and having children, all had non-significant associations with overall satisfaction with life. 相似文献
996.
Curtis M. Jolly Budry Bayard Richard T. Awuah Simon C. Fialor Johnathan T. Williams 《Journal of Socio》2009,38(2):280-287
This study uses a modified health belief model (HBM) within a socio-economic framework to evaluate the influence of awareness and knowledge on actions to reduce aflatoxin (AF) contamination in groundnuts (peanuts). Data were collected in 2002 through a self-administered questionnaire from a sample of 367 individuals. Socio-economic factors affecting perceptions, awareness, knowledge, and action were examined using structural equation modeling. The perceived benefits of good quality groundnuts and/or groundnut products were the most important determinants of awareness and knowledge of AF among agricultural and health professionals in Ghana. Awareness, in turn, had a significant causal effect on the professionals’ decisions to take actions to increase the level of awareness of AF in the society. Demographic factors, such as gender and level of education significantly influenced knowledge of AF and the perception of the benefits of good quality groundnut. Type of profession had a significant influence on awareness and perceived seriousness of the AF problem. Education was a significant determinant of awareness of AF in groundnuts. The study generates important information for policy decision making when considering resource allocation to reduce food contamination in developing economies. 相似文献
997.
While utilizing social networks is common in labor markets and may benefit both firms and laborers, social networks are argued to be unusually important in the popular arts. Prior work in economics on the role of relationships in labor markets has generally focused on the benefits and not the costs. This paper takes a different approach by focusing on both costs and benefits, by examining a specific market where relationships are particularly important. This paper argues that in addition to reducing diversity and creating inherent inequalities, excessive reliance on networks can lead to higher agency costs and lower product quality. 相似文献
998.
Dalkhat M. Ediev 《Revue europeenne de demographie》2018,34(3):441-457
This paper aims to improve the accuracy of parametric extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, is not sufficient for reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Human Mortality Database and the use of the Horiuchi–Coale and Mitra formulas for reducing the bias of life expectancy in the open age interval. We show that extrapolation accuracy is substantially improved when the extrapolation is constrained by either the empirical life expectancy or the Horiuchi–Coale or Mitra estimates. Unconstrained extrapolations and those constrained by conventional life table estimates of life expectancy in the open age interval show substantial biases and should be avoided. Combining extrapolation with life expectancy estimates which are robust to the effects of age exaggeration appears to be a valuable way of improving mortality estimation. 相似文献
999.
René M. Bakker 《国际管理评论杂志》2010,12(4):466-486
This paper brings together the research on temporary organizational forms. Despite a recent surge in publications on this topic, there have been few attempts to integrate knowledge on what we know of such temporary forms of organization. In order to correct this, an integrative framework is proposed around four central themes: time, team, task and context. Within each of these themes, the paper offers an overview of the literature, the gaps in what we know, and what future directions might be taken by scholars hoping to contribute to this important and rapidly growing field. 相似文献
1000.
Researchers have long recognized that subjective perceptions of risk are better predictors of choices over risky outcomes than science‐based or experts’ assessments of risk. More recent work suggests that uncertainty about risks also plays a role in predicting choices and behavior. In this article, we develop and estimate a formal model for an individual's perceived health risks associated with arsenic contamination of his or her drinking water. The modeling approach treats risk as a random variable, with an estimable probability distribution whose variance reflects uncertainty. The model we estimate uses data collected from a survey given to a sample of people living in arsenic‐prone areas in the United States. The findings from this article support the fact that scientific information is essential to explaining the mortality rate perceived by the individuals, but uncertainty about the probability remains significant. 相似文献