DEMOCRATIC POLITICS AND THE LONG MARCH ON GLOBAL WARMING: Comments on McCright and Dunlap

The political impasse over global warming legislation stems from obstacles in the mass media arena, public awareness, electoral politics as well as governmental policy. Advocates of global warming policy have to be simultaneously successful in all four major public arenas to prevail. This article provides an overview of the obstacles in each public arena in the United States highlighting the broader context in which McCright and Dunlap's analysis of polarized public opinion operates. Global warming advocates have had their greatest success in the media arena but are checked by the rise of a conservative counter‐campaign as well as media reporting norms, which have contributed to polarized public opinion and limited salience of the issue. Global warming never ranks in the top issue list to which electoral candidates attend, giving it little priority in national electoral contests. Although the House of Representatives passed the Waxman‐Markey Bill in 2009, the bill died in the Senate and will not resurface until the Democratic margin is again large enough to overcome opposition vetoes. At the same time, major legislation has often incubated on the margins of these public arenas for significant time until a political crisis removes the normal obstacles to such major “watershed” legislation. For global warming, the long march through American public arenas appears to have begun.     

Economic infrastructure and the development of state autonomy: A case study of U.S. maritime policy

This paper interprets the development of the U.S. maritime industry as reflecting changes in the economic substructure of American capitalism. The analysis seeks to explain how the changing interests of the state, as well as the changing balance of power between capitalists, workers and the state stimulated changes in the maritime industry. Three time periods are used: the Revolution until 1867; 1868 to 1897; and 1898‐on. These three periods represent distinct periods of policy change and strategies of capital accumulation for the state and for capitalists. A combination of Marxian and Weberian theories of political economy are used to explain these capital‐state relations.     

Election Day Registration's Effect on U.S. Voter Turnout

Objective . Early voter registration deadlines make voting more difficult for many American citizens. In an attempt to facilitate voting, several U.S. states now permit registration on election day, at the height of the campaign. This article examines the turnout effects of adopting election day registration (EDR) and other smaller reductions in closing dates. Methods . Primarily using the Current Population Study (1972-1996), we estimate the turnout advantage of EDR for citizens having low, middle, and high socioeconomic status. Results . The elimination of closing dates, through EDR, is predicted to produce about a 7-percentage-point turnout boost in the average state. Those having a high school education and middle incomes are expected to see the largest turnout gains, with the less educated and poorer citizens doing almost as well. No evidence is found to link the implementation of EDR to subsequent changes in the electorate's partisan balance. Conclusions . Even the most dramatic easing of voter registration costs has a modest effect on the total number of voters and little impact on the long-standing skew toward greater representation of those having higher status in the voting electorate of the United States.     

Prior elicitation in the classification problem

Results are developed concerning the asymptotic behaviour of the Bayes classification rule as the number of unclassified observations grows without bound. It is shown that unclassified observations serve only to estimate the individual population parameters in an unlabeled sense and do not provide information about the labels that are attached to the populations. Prior construction is approached through investigation of prior odds over regions of the joint parameter space (across all populations) deemed likely to contain the true joint parameter vector. It is shown that consideration of these prior odds can lead to more robust a posteriori classification of individual observations.     

Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses

The mathematics of stable populations recently has been generalized to cover populations with time-varying fertility and mortality by a modification incorporating the sum of age-varying growth rates in place of the fixed growth rate of a stable population. Equations that characterize nonstable populations apply to any cohort-like phenomenon with a measurable property that cumulates gains or losses through time. In particular, the equations fit the relation between a population's average parity at a given age and age-specific fertility rates previously experienced at lower ages. Techniques devised to derive an intercensal life table from single-year age distributions in two censuses are adapted to estimate accurate intercensal fertility schedules from distributions of parity by age of woman in two censuses. Birth-order specific fertility schedules are also estimated.     

Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening Mechanisms

Objective . We draw on ecological modernization theory and international political economy arguments to examine the sources of an environmental Kuznets curve (or EKC) that produces an inverted U-shaped rate of deforestation relative to economic development. Method . We use ordinary least squares regression with White's (1978) correction for possible heteroskedasticity to examine the rate of deforestation (1980–1995) in less developed countries. Results . Net of controls for initial forest stock and the quality of deforestation estimates, we find strong evidence for an EKC driven by (1) agglomeration effects linked to the level of urbanization, (2) rural-to-urban migration that partially offsets rural population pressure, (3) the growth of services-dominated urban economies, and (4) strong democratic states. We find little evidence that foreign debt or export dependence influence the deforestation rate. Conclusions . Although deforestation continues to pose pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, there is evidence of self-corrective ecological and modernization processes inherent in development that act to mitigate these risks.     

Using Remote Sensing to Evaluate Environmental Institutional Designs: A Habitat Conservation Planning Example

Objective. Satellite-based remote-sensing analysis is a beneficial, yet underused, tool for environmental policy, planning, and evaluation. We identify its benefits and costs to encourage social scientists to consider the use of remote sensing as a tool for planning and evaluating environmental institutions. Methods. We analyze two multispectral Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images to evaluate a habitat conservation plan (HCP) implemented pursuant to the Endangered Species Act. Results. Image analysis provides useful broad spatial scale information on HCP performance that is not discernible to the naked eye or through other methodologies. Conclusions. Satellite image analysis should be considered as a tool for planning and evaluating environmental institutional designs—despite the financial costs and requisite technical training. These images provide ecological and land cover change information that may not be available elsewhere. We provide lessons learned to help make analysts cognizant of some important issues surrounding the use of satellite-based imagery for environmental institutional analysis.     

ASA certification as cooptation

We provide a brief overview of the American Sociological Association’s Ph.D. Certification Program and question the need for, and justification of, certifying sociologists. Essentially, the ASA certification mechanism, as implemented, is nonsociological, emphasizing presumed defects in the individual to the neglect of wider, systemic forces impinging on our discipline. If certification of sociologists is warranted, a view difficult to support given the small number of applicants for certification since 1986, we suggest departmental accreditation—a more sociological approach that emphasizes the value of the discipline, in and of itself. His research interests include political sociology, stratification and contemporary issues affecting the discipline. His research foci include rural and agricultural issues and the sociological employment market and profession.     

Public Opposition to a Proposed Nuclear Waste Repository in Canada: An Investigation of Cultural and Economic Effects

Residents of four northern communities were surveyed about Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's proposal to site an underground repository for high-level nuclear waste somewhere in the Canadian Shield. Opposition to the repository was relatively strong in all communities, but was strongest among aboriginal respondents. Path analysis revealed that trust in nuclear regulators, faith in science and technology, and anticipated net costs were important mediators of this effect. Aboriginals were less trusting, exhibited less faith in science and technology, and perceived the costs associated with the repository to be higher than their nonaboriginal counterparts. No support was found for the hypothesis that, after controlling for aboriginal status, financially insecure individuals would display greater support for the nuclear waste repository than financially secure individuals. Policy implications for balancing perceived risks and siting needs are discussed.