Is There a “Pessimistic” Bias in Individual Beliefs? Evidence from a Simple Survey

It is an important issue for economic and finance applications to determine whether individuals exhibit a behavioral bias toward pessimism in their beliefs, in a lottery or more generally in an investment opportunities framework. In this paper, we analyze the answers of a sample of 1,540 individuals to the following question “Imagine that a coin will be flipped 10 times. Each time, if heads, you win $10\texttt{C}\!\!\!\rule[2.3pt]{.4em}{.3pt}\!\!\rule[3.3pt]{.4em}{.3pt}It is an important issue for economic and finance applications to determine whether individuals exhibit a behavioral bias toward pessimism in their beliefs, in a lottery or more generally in an investment opportunities framework. In this paper, we analyze the answers of a sample of 1,540 individuals to the following question “Imagine that a coin will be flipped 10 times. Each time, if heads, you win . How many times do you think that you will win?” The average answer is surprisingly about 3.9 which is below the average 5, and we interpret this as a pessimistic bias. We find that women are more “pessimistic” than men, as are old people relative to young. We also analyze how our notion of pessimism is related to more general notions of pessimism previously introduced in psychology.     

The impact of serial transitions on behavioral and psychological problems among children in child protection services

This study focuses on the impacts of serial transitions on externalized and internalized behavior disorders, anxiety, and depression among children in child protection services. The research was carried out with a sample of 741 children. The findings demonstrate that the number of times a family is blended is a stronger predictive factor for children's adjustment than is the family structure at the time of the interview. In predicting externalized and internalized behavior problems among children, however, the effect of family structure disappears in favor of the variables associated with family functioning and family climate.     

Information technology (IT) accessibility: implications for employment of people with disabilities

Online technology has made significant inroads into human resource (HR) processes such as recruitment, benefits, and training, yet many web sites are inaccessible to people with disabilities. Cornell University surveyed 433 HR representatives regarding their organizations' use of information and Web technology in HR processes. Survey results report that nine of the ten organizations use Web processes for job postings, eight of ten for online benefits information dissemination, and about six out of ten for online benefits self service and online employee training. Employee use of computers was extensive, with the majority using computers more than half the workday. Knowledge of assistive technologies for computer users with disabilities and of Web accessibility considerations was low, but nearly half the respondents reported having made some type of adaptation to make a computer accessible to an employee with a disability. Very few organizations had trained any of their staff in Web accessibility topics or in making computers accessible, and the majority desired more information on those topics. These findings have implications not only for people with disabilities, but for the general workforce, which is aging.     

Welfare recipients’ quality of life: lessons from the United Nations’ Human Development Index for the US welfare policy La calidad de vida de las beneficiarias del bienestar social: lecciones del Indice de Desarrollo Humano (IDH) de las Naciones Unidas para la política de bienestar social de los Estados Unidos de América

This article is part of a study on single mothers who were welfare recipients in Georgia, US (n?=?53,323) in the year 2000 which used the Human Development Index (HDI) to measure their quality of life (QOL) and that of the overall Georgia population by race. The United Nations created the HDI in 1990 to compare QOL across nations, but the HDI has also proved to be suitable for sub-populations within countries. Based on the QOL study in Georgia, the first one to use the HDI to measure QOL of women on welfare, this article discusses lessons derived from the use of the HDI that can be drawn for the US welfare policy. Specifically, the discussion focuses on: (1) the role of health coverage; (2) the role of infant mortality rate; (3) the role of maternal mortality rate; (4) the mismatch between education and standard of living; and (5) the need for a welfare policy with a human development approach. These issues are also relevant to other welfare nations where their restructuring, especially welfare-to-work policies, have most affected lone mothers.

Este artículo es parte de un estudio sobre madres solteras beneficiarias del sistema de bienestar social en el estado de Georgia, Estados Unidos de América (n?=?53,323) en el año 2000, el cual utilizó el Indice de Desarrollo Humano (IDH) de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) para medir su calidad de vida (CDV), así como la de la población general de Georgia según su raza. La ONU creó el IDH en 1990 para comparar la CDV entre naciones, pero el IDH también ha demostrado ser útil para sub-poblaciones dentro de las diferentes naciones. Basado en el estudio sobre CDV en Georgia, el primero en utilizar el IDH para medir la CDV entre beneficiarios/as del bienestar social, este artículo discute las lecciones derivadas del uso del IDH que pueden aplicarse a la política de bienestar social de los EUA. Específicamente, la discusión se enfoca en: (1) el papel que desempeña la cobertura en salud; (2) el papel de la tasa de mortalidad infantil; (3) el papel de la tasa de mortalidad maternal; (4) la disyunción entre nivel de educación y estándard de vida; (5) la necesidad de una política de bienestar social enfocada en el desarrollo humano. Estos temas son igualmente relevantes para otras naciones bienestaristas en donde las reestructuraciones, en particular las políticas de transición de bienestar a trabajo obligatorio, han afectado especialmente a las madres solteras/solas.     

Writing ‘Conflict’: Whispers as a ‘Restorative’ Narrative

Abstract

This paper examines contemporary Kenyan popular fiction as a site of cultural production, where the contradictions of African modernity are played out. The paper focuses on one of Kenya's oldest popular fiction columns, Whispers, published in local newspapers since 1983. Constructed around a Kenyan family, which is deployed as an allegorical trope to read modern Kenya, the paper explores how the column introduces us to the anxieties that define life in contemporary Kenya. Although the narrative comprises many thematic concerns, reference is particularly made to the restive masculinity threatened by social change. The paper also provides a discussion of the constant ‘backward glance’, an attempt to look for stability in the past, part of the society's relentless search for models that could help Kenyans make sense of an uncertain present, and an even more doubtful future. The paper also engages with the narrative mode of this fiction, examining how humour, satire and parody deceptively make light of what are important issues affecting society.     

From Rights to Responsibilities: Identity Politics and Ethnographic Methodology,Dialogues with South African Musicians

Abstract

The ethnographic endeavour is often riven by a tension between two claims to the ‘right’ to research asserted either on the basis of identity claims or professional expertise. A closely associated debate within the academy is characterised by an oscillation between concern about uneven power relations and the desire to maintain effective research practice. Attempting to address the absence of voices of ‘subjects’ in this debate, I discuss the issue with musicians who critique both notions of identity and academic expertise as providing ethnographic authority, and propose a shift in discourse from rights to responsibility. This progresses beyond essentialism but insists that structural power inequalities between researchers and researched be accounted for, thus moving towards more situated, responsible ethnographic theory and practice.     

Youth-Driven HIV Prevention Programmes in South Africa: Social Capital,Empowerment and Conscientisation

Abstract

The community-level attributes of two youth HIV prevention initiatives in a single community are examined using the concepts of social capital, empowerment and critical consciousness. The school-based peer education programme and youth-initiated public clinic ‘add-on’ facility for the treatment of adolescent sexually transmitted diseases had differing experiences in terms of implementation, community acceptance, sustainability and achieving their goals. By examining the role of conscientization, networks for accessing resources and power, and community acceptability of adolescent HIV prevention, this paper describes the differing experiences of these two programmes. The paper indicates the need for true adolescent agency in challenging the social constructions of adolescent HIV risk at the social and community levels.     

La New Day Co-op est-elle (réellement) une coopérative ? Revisiter les théories sur la coopération à partir d'une expérience de pensée

De manière similaire aux sciences physiques, la méthode d'expérience de pensée permet d’étudier la validité des théories dans un « contexte limite », où le chercheur manque de données expérimentales. The Wire (sur écoute), série policière ambitieuse des années 2000, peut être vu comme un tel objet d’études riche pour les chercheurs en sciences sociales à la fois comme reflet de la réalité mais aussi comme objet autonome proposant une certaine interprétation des problèmes économiques et sociaux. En tant qu’expérience de pensée de sciences sociales, sa mise en scène provocante de la vie quotidienne d'une coopérative de revente de drogues, la New Day Co-op, interroge les concepts clés des travaux portant sur la coopération, et notamment l'assimilation habituelle entre justice sociale, transformation sociale et démocratie économique. « Matériel empirique » important dans le cadre d'une théorie anti-essentialiste des organisations coopératives, elle est également un appel à la prise en compte d'une démarche réflexive en sciences sociales.     

Alcohol Measures and Terms: A Perfect Storm for Chronic Confusion

Abstract

Members in the prevention and treatment fields continue to examine how to most effectively assess and label high volume alcohol consumption. Terms such as “binge” drinking have resulted in considerable controversy and debate. Conventionally the criteria for assessing high-risk drinking includes: five or drinks for men and four or more drinks for women during a sitting/event/occasion within the previous two weeks. Several standardized instruments simply use the cut off for high-risk drinking as five or more drinks and do not include the gender variable when defining this behavior. Both of these measures have undergone criticism for not including a more specific time element. Yet asking respondents to recall specific time frames from a night of heavy drinking may also compromise validity. Further the 5+/4+ or 5+ drinking criterion does not adequately assess intoxication levels or more extreme levels of alcohol consumption. A variety of special measures and terms have been created to capture heavy drinking behaviors and ritualistic behavior. Researchers and practitioners may benefit by using different measures and terms based on context and their specific prevention goals.