A fortran implementation of univariate fourier series density estimation

A set of Fortran-77 subroutines is described which compute a nonparametric density estimator expressed as a Fourier series. In addition, a subroutine is given for the estimation of a cumulative distribution. Performance measures are given based on samples from a Weibull distribution. Due to small size and modest space demands, these subroutines are easily implemented on most small computers.     

A comparison of some conditional and unconditional exact tests for 2x2 contingency tables

In 1935, R.A. Fisher published his well-known “exact” test for 2x2 contingency tables. This test is based on the conditional distribution of a cell entry when the rows and columns marginal totals are held fixed. Tocher (1950) and Lehmann (1959) showed that Fisher s test, when supplemented by randomization, is uniformly most powerful among all the unbiased tests UMPU). However, since all the practical tests for 2x2 tables are nonrandomized - and therefore biased the UMPU test is not necessarily more powerful than other tests of the same or lower size. Inthis work, the two-sided Fisher exact test and the UMPU test are compared with six nonrandomized unconditional exact tests with respect to their power. In both the two-binomial and double dichotomy models, the UMPU test is often less powerful than some of the unconditional tests of the same (or even lower) size. Thus, the assertion that the Tocher-Lehmann modification of Fisher's conditional test is the optimal test for 2x2 tables is unjustified.     

An empirical study of the type I error rate and power for some selected normal-theory and nonparametric tests of the independence of two sets of variables

Normal-theory tests of the hypothesis of no relationship among two sets of variables require assumptions of independence, hamoscedasticity, and normality. If, however, the assumption of normality is not tenable, there are few guidelines for properly using these tests. Historically, the lack of a comprehensive hypothesis-testing framework in the nonparametric case has provided few alternatives to normal-theory procedures. Fortunately, this situation has changed with the introduction of nonparametric, general linear model-based tests that can be used with existing computing packages. Multivariate-nonparametric tests due to Puri and Sen (1969, 1971, 1985) and Conover and Iman (1981) are outlined, and the results of a simulation study of the performance of three nonparametric and one normal-theory test of the hypothesis of no relationship among two sets of variables are presented. These results suggest that multivariate-nonparametric tests should be considered for a variety of data conditions. especially heavy-tailed and badly skewed data for small samples and a large number of variates.     

Local predictive influence in bayesian linear models with conjugate priors

Cook (1986) presented the idea of local influence to study the sensitivity of inferences to model assumptions:introduce a vector δ of perturbations to the model; choose a discrepancy function D to measure differences between the original inference and the inference under the perturbed model; study the behavior of D near δ = 0, the original model, usually by taking derivatives. Johnson and Geisser (1983) measure influence in Bayesian inference by the Kullback-Leibler divergence between predictive distributions. I~IcCulloch (1989) is a synthesis of Cook and Johnson and Geisser, using Kullback-Leibler divergence between posterior or predictive distributions as the discrepancy function in Bayesian local influence analyses. We analyze a special case for which McCulloch gives the general theory; namely, the linear model with conjugate prior. We present specific formulae for local influence measures for 1) changes in the parameters of the gamma prior for the precision, 2) changes in the mean of the normal prior for the regression coefficients, 3) changes in the covariance matrix of the normal prior for the regression coefficients and 4) changes in the case weights. Our method is an easy way to find locally influential subsets of points without knowing in advance the sizes of the subsets. The techniques are illustrated with a regression example.     

Model diagnostics for marginal regression analysis of correlated binary data

We propose several diagnostic methods for checking the adequacy of marginal regression models for analyzing correlated binary data. We use a parametric marginal model based on latent variables and derive the projection (hat) matrix, Cook's distance, various residuals and Mahalanobis distance between the observed binary responses and the estimated probabilities for a cluster. Emphasized are several graphical methods including the simulated Q-Q plot, the half-normal probability plot with a simulated envelope, and the partial residual plot. The methods are illustrated with a real life example.     

Asymptotic expansions in non-linear renewal theory

We obtain first order asymptotic expansions for the distribution of the excess of a standard normal random walk over a curved boundary and the error probabilities of some repeated significance tests. The key step in the analysis is an asymptotic expansion for the conditional probability that the random walk has not crossed the boundary before the N step, given that it is near the boundary after the n^th step.