Is There a Forest Transition? Deforestation,Reforestation, and Development1

Abstract Environmental social scientists have recently begun to use the term 'forest transition' to describe how forest cover changes as economic development occurs in nations. The hypothesized transition occurs as follows. An initial surge in economic activity in impoverished societies spurs deforestation, but as economic activity continues to intensify and cities grow larger, a 'turnaround' occurs, and deforestation gives way to reforestation. This paper uses cross-national data from five successive surveys of world forest resources to assess this empirical claim. A turnaround in forest cover trends does occur in a significant number of nations. The paper also evaluates two explanations for the turnaround, a wood scarcity hypothesis derived from microeconomic theory and an industrialization hypothesis linked to central place theory. It finds period specific support for the industrialization hypothesis. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of these findings for proposals to alleviate the biodiversity crisis through programs of reforestation.     

Calculating the total vote where the district magnitude is greater than one: A test of some algorithms using British local election data

Electoral analysis using aggregate data relies on the availability of accurate voting statistics. One vital piece of information, often missing from official electoral returns, particularly British local government elections, is the total number of valid ballot papers. This figure is essential for the calculation of electoral turnout. When voters have a single vote and official information about the number of ballot papers issued is missing, a figure for the total vote can still be derived. However, local elections in Britain frequently use a system of multiple-member wards, where voters have as many votes as there are seats to be filled. In such cases, calculating the total vote and, hence, the turnout does present a real problem. It cannot be assumed that all voters will use their full quota of votes or that voters will cast a ballot in favour of a single party. This paper develops and tests diff erent algorithms for calculating the total vote in such circumstances. We conclude that the accuracy of an algorithm is closely related to the structure of party competition. The findings of this paper have a number of important implications. First, the difficulties in calculating the turnout in multiple-member wards are identified. This will inform the debate about public participation in the local electoral process. Second, the method for deriving a figure for the total vote has an important bearing on a number of other statistics widely employed in electoral analysis.     

Statistical Methods and Graphical Displays for Analyzing How the Association Between Two Qualitative Variables Differs Among Countries, Among Groups, Or Over Time: A Modified Regression-Type Approach

Many interesting sociological questions pertain to how the association between two variables depends on a third variable. In sociological applications, the third variable often pertains to countries, to subgroups of a population, or to time periods. We propose a regression-type approach that specifies that the log-odds- ratios that describe the two-way association of interest are a linear function of latent scores for the third variable. Additive and multiplicative models currently in use by researchers are special cases of the regression-type model. To illustrate the utility of the regression-type approach, we apply this approach to analyze (1) data on occupational mobility in the United States, Britain, and Japan (comparing mobility in these countries) and (2) data on the association between religion and voting behavior in U.S. presidential elections from 1968 to 1992 (comparing this association in the different elections). We also introduce here graphical displays that can be used to obtain worthwhile information about goodness-of-fit and to aid in substantive interpretation.     

Media Technologies, Images of Drugs, and an Evocative Telepresence

I regard electronic media technologies as framing devices for how viewers perceive issues associated with illegal drugs. Controllers of electronic media technologies produce and disseminate images of illegal drugs and users of such drugs to which viewers respond. People who control the images of electronic media production create an evocative telepresence, or a visual context that relies on appeals to authority and emotion. However, viewers do not merely respond to images of illegal drugs; rather, they actively interpret such images and draw their own conclusions. To demonstrate the complex relationship between electronic stimuli and viewer responses, I report on a classroom experiment comparing those who saw and heard a heroin user with those who only heard this user. I also report findings from student perceptions of and reactions to four drug films. Results of the experiment and the readings of films indicate that viewers, especially those who can see and hear electronic displays, are sophisticated consumers who respond to immediate stimuli while making reference to distal stimuli. In the main, I contend that electronic images of illegal drugs and users in an evocative telepresence are powerful stimuli, but they do not cause viewer perceptions.     

Lessons from the trenches in physician integration

Beyond the theoretical basis for integration, three core considerations stand out as the primary reasons for pursuing integration from a physician's perspective. In the authors' experience, the ability to make a case for physician integration stands or falls based on the ability of the integrated delivery system to address these considerations: Gain greater access to capital; develop human resources with talents in managed care and the full spectrum of care services; and sustain an information infrastructure. This article explores the lessons learned in pursuing physician integration.     

Refugees of Turkish origin: "coerced immigrants" to Turkey since 1945

"While several studies (in both Turkish and English) have been made on migration to the Ottoman Empire from the Caucasus and the Balkans during the nineteenth century...very little systematic and comprehensive research on migration has been undertaken on the period since the establishment of the Turkish Republic. This article, which aims to partially fill the gap, is divided into three parts: the issue of national refugees (refugees of Turkish origin) in relation to Turkey's overall refugee policy; Turkey's policy towards national refugees; and the volume and causes of refugee migration to Turkey since 1945." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Bequests as a heir "disciple device."

This paper develops a model ofinter vivos gifts and bequests in a setting of moral hazard and adverse selection. Altruistic parents do not perfectly know how much effort their children make to earn their living, nor do they know their true level of ability.Inter vivos gifts take place prior to the realization of the children's earnings whereas at the moment of bequests, parents do observe them. We show that an optimal transfer policy generally uses a mix ofinter vivos gifts — deemed as more efficient — and bequests — deemed as more redistributive.We are thankful to Allessandro Cigno, Jacques Cremer, Claude d Aspremont and anonymous referees for their comments.Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno