Adjustment of provisional mortality series: the dynamic linear model with structured measurement errors

The authors "consider the problem of adjusting provisional time series using a bivariate structural model with correlated measurement errors. Maximum likelihood estimators and a minimum mean squared error adjustment procedure are derived for a provisional and final series containing common trend and seasonal components. The model also includes measurement errors common to both series and errors that are specific to the provisional series. [The authors] illustrate the technique by using provisional data to forecast ischemic heart disease mortality."     

Family ties and economic stability concerns of migrant labour families in Jordan

74 labor migrant families from various socioeconomic classes in Amman, Jordan were interviewed to examine changes in relationships among family members, extended family, and neighbors and their concerns about economic stability in the host country, Jordan, and the world market. Another purpose was to determine how current migration policies of the Arab oil-producing countries which prohibit labor migrants from bringing their families to the host country affect labor migration among families. The families consisted of either those who did or did not accompany the labor migrant. Overall labor migration affected unaccompanied families more than accompanied families, e.g., only 19% of the unaccompanied families reported increased family unity compared with 56% of accompanied families. Problems within unaccompanied families increased in 43% of the cases but in only 6% of the accompanied families. Many of these problems resulted in children dropping out of school which reflected the control fathers had within the family, separation, or divorce. Yet labor migration reduced family ties with extended family members and neighbors almost equally for both groups. Accompanied families were not as concerned about economic stability in Jordan as unaccompanied families (38% vs. 50%). Perhaps these families tended not to invest remittances received from the labor migrants working in Arab oil-producing countries in Jordan. Both groups were quite concerned about the economic stability in the host countries (66% and 72%, respectively) and the world market (59% and 62%, respectively), however. Since family unity suffers when families do not accompany labor migrants, it is suggested that oil-producing nations that depend on foreign labor should guarantee family unity as a human right.     

The challenge of world health

2 development specialists have expounded on the demands world health has placed on public health. Striking declines in infant and child mortality occurred with the advent of biomedical and technical interventions in developing countries after World War II. At the same time, these interventions promoted longer lives by curing and/or treating chronic diseases in developed countries. In the 1970s, however, it was apparent that the hospital based, curative approach could not meet health needs and was very costly. In developed countries, biomedical and social sciences showed that chronic diseases did not occur due to modernization but from unhealthy behaviors, diet, and lifestyle. In fact, in 1975, the US Centers for Disease Control announced that unhealthy lifestyles contributed to 50% of all deaths while the medical system was responsible for only 11%. The US and other developed countries then began to promote healthy lifestyles, and in the 1980s, considerable improvements in health occurred, especially among adults. Developing countries which depended on the Western medical model did not experience health gains in the 1970s. Yet developing countries where health systems concentrated on carrying essential services to all people and promoted basic hygiene and sound dietary practices continued to achieve considerable health gains. In 1978, WHO an UNICEF hosted the International Conference on Primary Health Care in Alma Ata, the Soviet Union to hold these developing countries with community based health systems as models of primary health care (PHC). The 1980s witnessed the spread of PHC especially in the form of child survival which focused on oral rehydration therapy and breast feeding. The biomedical and social sciences are needed to move this health policy and program strategy forward. Governments must see to policies that promote healthy people. Political will is needed to make human welfare a high priority.     

Business restructuring,management control,and corporate organization

Conclusions After half a century of growing dominance of the large corporation by non-owning managers, the 1980s were marked by a slowing or even reversing of their quiet revolution. Professional managers had come to control the corporation on the premise that they could more efficiently produce shareholder value than the original founder-owners. They turned shareholding into a passive investment on the same premise. As companies faced increasingly competitive pressures during the 1980s, however, the legitimacy of the rule of incumbent management came under challenge. No longer could government interference be blamed for many of the problems facing business; fingers pointed at management itself. As the criticism of corporate leadership gathered momentum, a leading diagnosis focused on one of managerial capitalism's crowning achievements: the autonomous power of professional management.The critique viewed the managerial autonomy as excessively permissive, the agency system as no longer effective. Professional managers had come to show too much concern for the social welfare of various stakeholder groups, including themselves, and too little concern for the financial welfare of the only stakeholder group that should really count — the shareholders. Many of the restructuring efforts were thus undertaken in the name of returning companies to the single-minded pursuit of ownership interests. What had stood in the way of such a pursuit was less a matter of government constraint and more a matter of inadequate stockholder vigilance by their appointed agents.Mindful of the critique, incumbent managements moved during the mid- to late-1980s to improve stockholder returns by paring the workforce and cutting other costs. Corporate acquisitions and leveraged buyouts brought new management teams to the fore where others had seemingly fallen short. The resulting restructuring reached a large proportion of the nation's major companies. Half or more of the largest companies had undergone a significant reduction in their workforce. And the dollar value of company resources changing ownership hands expanded considerably. The aggregate purchase price of mergers and acquisitions of publicly-traded firms in 1988 was nearly three times greater than in 1981. Even more striking was the sharp increase in the number of publicly-traded companies and divisions that were taken private. The aggregate dollar value of such buyouts in 1988 had increased almost 25 times over that in 1981. This opening of the market for corporate control among major U.S. firms brought a significant fraction of the nation's large corporations more directly under the immediate oversight of ownership interests.The reassertion of ownership control over large corporations was usually taken in the name of improving corporate earnings. Would be takeover groups generally promised more internal discipline and stronger financial performance. Whatever the actual financial impact of the intensification of ownership interests, available research suggests that it has had organizational impact. General company strategies may come to be more centrally guided while specific operating actions are devolved further down the organization.Ownership change and other restructuring steps have also ramified into corporate social and political action. That outreach is likely to be less vigorous and more divided. It is also being redirected. During the 1970s and early 1980s, corporate energies focused on reducing government regulation and improving community opinion. Those energies are now increasingly focused on facilitating or resisting restructuring. Companies have fought legislation that would limit the process of plant closings, but they have also sought legislation to protect themselves against hostile takeovers.The evidence also suggests that considerable managerial discretion remains in shaping company response to the restructuring pressures. Although market and organizational factors are sure to act as constraints, top management, whether a relatively autonomous non-owning management group or an owner-dominated management, retains an important independent capacity to exercise strategic choice. That choice is likely to receive special shaping by the long-term ascendance of financial managers and the decline of manufacturing personnel at the executive level.Yet corporate change must not be viewed as isolated managerial responses to changing market conditions. Companies and managements frequently look to one another for guidance in coping with ambiguous circumstances. DiMaggio and Powell's analysis of organizational isomorphism, for example, suggests that firms frequently adopt organizational practices not because they are dictated by the firm's market strategies, but rather because they are already used by other companies. Similarly, Granovetter's analysis of the social embeddedness of economic action indicates that company decisions are partially shaped by top management's contacts with their counterparts in other firms. Understanding company responses to restructuring pressures therefore requires a focus on inter-company flows of ideas and doctrines as well as purely internally generated responses specific to the company. Reactions to the restructuring pressures that are collectively developed and defined in the broader business community may prove to be as critical as individually fashioned solutions in guiding management approaches to restructuring during the years to come.

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Application of Stein-type estimation in combining regression estimates from replicated experiments

This paper considers the application of Stein-type estimation procedure for the coefficients in a linear regression model when data are available from replicated experiment. Two families of estimators characterized by a single scalar are proposed and their large sample asymptotic properties are derived. These are utilized for comparing the performances of the two estimators along with the conventional estimator and conditions for the superiority of one estimator over the other are deduced.     

Age at marriage,sex-ratios,and ethnic heterogamy

"This paper focuses on the effects of age at marriage and the sex-ratio on patterns of ethnic homogamy among Israeli women. We hypothesize that later marriages are more likely than early marriages to be heterogamous as the 'marriage market' shifts from school to the work-place. By the same token, when facing severe marriage squeezes women will be forced to out-marry. Employing data from the 1983 census, we model mate selection of women from Afro-Asian and Euro-American origin in various birth-cohorts. The results do not fully support our hypotheses: we find that in and of itself, age at marriage does not enhance ethnic heterogamy."     

DO SURVEYS OVERSTATE PUBLIC CONCERNS?

Because the item, "How concerned are you about...?" asks respondentsto indicate their level of concern about an issue, some respondentsmay sense it assumes they are concerned or should be concernedabout the issue. Using a filter question to first determineif people are concerned about the issue before asking for theirdegree of concern may help solve this problem. To test thishypothesis, a split-ballot experiment was embedded in a nationalrandom digit dialing telephone survey on food-related issues.For the four items included in the experiment, the group receivingthe filter versions of the questions gave roughly double thepercentages of "not concerned" responses as the group receivingstandard items, and the filter group also gave fewer responsesat the upper end of the response scale.