Declining world fertility: trends,causes, implications

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."     

Toward an assessment of the social role of rural midwives and its implication for the family planning program: an Iranian case study

An axiom of family planning programming is the importance of culturally-appropriate communicators and motivators. Traditional midwives seem ideal for this task but few studies have been done to verify this assumption by analyzing the midwife's social role as perceived by the community. 325 married women and 81 unmarried girls from a "model village" near Shiraz were interviewed by female undergraduates. 82.5% of the women are of childbearing age; 66% married before 14 years; 33% use contraception, mostly the pill, but most want large families because they expect high child mortality rates. Most of the older women are able to assist in childbirth but none, except the village's one recognized midwife, who is considered to have divine backing, will do so except in an emergency. The midwife's activities cause her to be held in low esteem by the community because 1) she has contact with a woman's sexual parts and this fact is public; 2) she has contact with vaginal excretia which are, in Islam, polluting; and 3) she is paid for her services, which labels her as a woman "without shame". The midwife is, however, widely used since women and their husbands fear the trip to the hospital and treatment by a male doctor much more than a midwife-supervised birth. The midwife in the study village had been there only 2 years and feels that she is not fully trusted. She is not consulted on birth control at all, because women expect the pill to be dispensed by doctors and consider other methods as a matter strictly between husband and wife. The midwife's role seems to complement that of the government health authorities rather than compete. The midwife's low status and circumscribed sphere of activity, the weak respect in which her advice is held and the pattern of having only 1 recognized midwife in a village at a time make the midwife a poor agent for family planning services. Her effectiveness as an agent of social change could be improved by training her in hygienic practices of childbirth and by redefining her role-relationship with the community. Studies should be done to identify the areas where traditional birth attendants are the best family planning communicators and those where that role is best left to others.     

The problem of reconciling divergent perspectives on urban crime: Personal experience,social ideology and scholarly research

The author examines influences of his personal experience with crime, his ideology, and his theoretical knowledge on his approach to the study of crime. Personal experience led to observations that (a) responses to crime are often gut-level rather than rational, (b) both street crime and the criminal justice system are characterized by incompetence, and (c) the retributive impulse must be considered in the study of crime. The radical ideology of the author led to the conclusion that crime is linked with the structure of the economic system. Finally, the author's scholarly knowledge led to recognition of the importance of the causality/meaning and determinism/voluntarism debates for the study of crime and for policy planning. He concludes that one must recognize the importance of all three sources of one's understanding of crime in order to engage in criminological research.

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Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

Blacks, whites, and attitudes towards abortion

This article examines patterns of black and white support forabortion from 1972 to 1980. The findings reveal that black-whitedifferences are present on the abortion issue. Many of the differencesare due to the different demographic characteristics of blacksand whites and the greater degree of religiosity of blacks.     

The "Positivity Bias" inEvaluations of Public Figures:Evidence Against Instrument Artifacts

The "positivity bias" is a term used to describe the consistentfavorable evaluation of public figures found in surveys overthe past 40 years. This paper explored several possible artifactualexplanations for this bias,focusing on the survey instrumentitself. Two experiments varied the labeling and ordering ofscale endpoints, the affective value of the initial contextevaluated, and the presence or absence of a prestigious jobtitle associated with the nameof the public figure. None ofthe variations produced significantly different levels of positivitythan the standard control condition used in each experiment.RichardR. Lau is a graduate student in social psychology at the Universityof California, Los Angeles. David O. Sears is Professor of Psychologyand Political Science at UCLA. Richard Centers is Professorof Psychology at UCLA. This research was supported in part byGrant #SOC73-09153 A03 from the National Science Foundationto David O. Sears. The authors wish to expess their thanks toMark Williams, who did most of the coding and checking involvedin the survey.     

TEACHING THE INDEPENDENCE OF X AND S2 IN APPLIED STATISTICS*

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The increase in marital status differences in mortality up to the oldest age in seven European countries, 1990-99

We investigate mortality differentials by marital status among older age groups using a database of mortality rates by marital status at ages 40 and over for seven European countries with 1 billion person-years of exposure. The mortality advantage of married people, both men and women, continues to increase up to at least the age group 85-89, the oldest group we are able to consider. We find the largest absolute differences in mortality levels between marital status groups are at high ages, and that absolute differentials are: (i) greater for men than for women; (ii) similar in magnitude across countries; (iii) increase steadily with age; and (iv) are greatest at older age. We also find that the advantage enjoyed by married people increased over the 1990s in almost all cases. We note that results for groups such as older divorced women need to be interpreted with caution.