On the coefficient of variation for residence time distributions of some stochastic compartmental models

The study of residence time distributions is motivated by the desire to develop new practical tools for the statistical analysis of compartmental systems. In particular, Gibaldi and Perrier (1982) describe three alternative models for a two-compartment system, which were noted to be "indistinguishable based solely on plasma or urinary excretion data," defining a residence time distribution. In this paper, properties of the coefficient of variation of the residence time distributions are developed for these three models. In addition to the standard Markovian model with exponential retention times, properties are also derived for a non-Markovian model with gamma retention times. A coefficient of variation may be estimated from commonly available elimination data, and may be used in principle to discriminate between these three models.     

Estimation of covariance matrices based on hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors

This paper focuses on Bayesian shrinkage methods for covariance matrix estimation. We examine posterior properties and frequentist risks of Bayesian estimators based on new hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors. More precisely, we give the conditions for the existence of the posterior distributions. Advantages in terms of numerical simulations of posteriors are shown. A simulation study illustrates the performance of the estimation procedures under three loss functions for relevant sample sizes and various covariance structures.     

Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting

This article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner (1987) and extended by Zellner and Hong (1987) to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries. This forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven Ohio metropolitan areas. We compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators. We conclude that the ridge estimator, which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques, may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts.     

A Simulation Study of Predicting Flush Date

For Canada's boreal forest region, the accurate modelling of the timing of the appearance of aspen leaves is important to forest fire management, as it signifies the end of the spring fire season that occurs after snowmelt. This article compares two methods, a midpoint rule and a conditional expectation method used to estimate the true flush date for interval-censored data from a large set of fire-weather stations in Alberta, Canada. The conditional expectation method uses the interval censored kernel density estimator of Braun et al. (2005 Braun , J. , Duchesne , T. , Stafford , J. E. ( 2005 ). Local likelihood density estimation for interval censored data . Canadian Journal of Statistics 33 : 39 – 60 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The methods are compared via simulation, where true flush dates were generated from a normal distribution and then converted into intervals by adding and subtracting exponential random variables. The simulation parameters were estimated from the data set and several scenarios were considered. The study reveals that the conditional expectation method is never worse than the midpoint method, and that there is a significant advantage to this method when the intervals are large. An illustration of the methodology applied to the Alberta data set is also provided.     

A Multivariate Synthetic Control Chart for Monitoring the Process Mean Vector of Skewed Populations Using Weighted Standard Deviations

This article proposes a multivariate synthetic control chart for skewed populations based on the weighted standard deviation method. The proposed chart incorporates the weighted standard deviation method into the standard multivariate synthetic control chart. The standard multivariate synthetic chart consists of the Hotelling's T ² chart and the conforming run length chart. The weighted standard deviation method adjusts the variance–covariance matrix of the quality characteristics and approximates the probability density function using several multivariate normal distributions. The proposed chart reduces to the standard multivariate synthetic chart when the underlying distribution is symmetric. In general, the simulation results show that the proposed chart performs better than the existing multivariate charts for skewed populations and the standard T ² chart, in terms of false alarm rates as well as moderate and large mean shift detection rates based on the various degrees of skewnesses.     

An empirical study of the type I error rate and power for some selected normal-theory and nonparametric tests of the independence of two sets of variables

Normal-theory tests of the hypothesis of no relationship among two sets of variables require assumptions of independence, hamoscedasticity, and normality. If, however, the assumption of normality is not tenable, there are few guidelines for properly using these tests. Historically, the lack of a comprehensive hypothesis-testing framework in the nonparametric case has provided few alternatives to normal-theory procedures. Fortunately, this situation has changed with the introduction of nonparametric, general linear model-based tests that can be used with existing computing packages. Multivariate-nonparametric tests due to Puri and Sen (1969, 1971, 1985) and Conover and Iman (1981) are outlined, and the results of a simulation study of the performance of three nonparametric and one normal-theory test of the hypothesis of no relationship among two sets of variables are presented. These results suggest that multivariate-nonparametric tests should be considered for a variety of data conditions. especially heavy-tailed and badly skewed data for small samples and a large number of variates.     

Accent on Teaching Materials

Estimation of covariance components in the multivariate random-effect model with nested covariance structure is discussed. There are two covariance matrices to be estimated, namely, the between-group and the within-group covariance matrices. These two covariance matrices are most often estimated by forming a multivariate analysis of variance and equating mean square matrices to their expectations. Such a procedure involves taking the difference between the between-group mean square and the within-group mean square matrices, and often produces an estimated between-group covariance matrix that is not nonnegative definite. We present estimators of the two covariance matrices that are always proper covariance matrices. The estimators are the restricted maximum likelihood estimators if the random effects are normally distributed. The estimation procedure is extended to more complicated models, including the twofold nested and the mixed-effect models. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the use of the estimation procedure.