THE EFFECT OF PROVIDER CONTROL OF BLUE SHIELD PLANS ON HEALTH CARE MARKETS

Blue Shield plans often are granted regulatory advantages by the states in which they operate. Run efficiently, such not-for-profit firms should use these lower costs to eliminate their less advantaged rivals, the commercial insurers. However, these higher-cost commercial providers have been able to offer insurance coverage at prices competitive with the Blues, as evidenced by the fact that Blue plans have, on average, less than 50 percent market share. Similar prices with lower overall costs implies that economic rents are being earned, rents which a not-for-profit firm cannot distribute to owners. In this paper we argue that when there are competing goals among the groups controlling the Blue Shield plans, the different possible "uses" of the regulatory advantage become endogenously determined, necessitating the use of simultaneous equation estimation. Testing this model we find the major effect of doctor-control of Blue Shield plans is to raise doctors' fees while lowering the amount of rents captured by both consumers and administrators.     

Voting cycles and the structure of individual preferences

Empirical studies have shown that cyclical preferences are infrequent, but they have been less clear about why. Using thermometer ratings from nationally-representative samples of the U.S., we examine preferences for presidential candidates in order to determine what it is about them that leads to few cycles. Single-peaked preferences as usually construed (meaning that all of a set of preferences satisfy single-peakedness criteria) are, of course, rare. Yet we find a high degree of unidimensionality in the sense that for any given set of preferences, a relatively high proportion of the preference orders are consistent with single-peakedness. We also find that the highest amounts of unidimensionality often do not occur along partisan or left/right lines. Strong feelings for or against candidates, often not derived from an issue base, form the basis for the dimensionality discovered.We would like to thank Daniel Severance for programming the random model calculations and three anonymous referees, whose comments were very helpful in clarifying the presentation in this paper.     

Irregular migration: a rising issue in developing countries

The growing concern with illegal, or undocumented, migration in developing countries is described. The author notes that although such migration occurred in the past without causing concern, changing economic, political, and social factors since the 1970s have caused governments to attempt to control such flows. A review of regional trends is included, and the consequences of illegal migration for both countries of origin and destination are examined. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Job transfers: a neglected aspect of migration in Malaysia

"This article examines the incidence of [job-related] transfers in Malaysia. The retrospective migration data from the Malaysia Family Life Survey [conducted in 1976-1977] are used to demonstrate that transfers comprise 18 percent of all migration in the country and that there has been a rise in the incidence of transfers over a 35 year period. Factors underlying this trend are outlined. Furthermore, significant differences in age, educational attainment and other characteristics between transferees and other types of migrants are identified and their implications discussed."     

Chaos and transformation: implications of nonequilibrium theory for social science and society

This article deals with all levels of both living (biological, psychological, sociological, and cultural) and nonliving (physical, chemical, and mathematical) systems. The idea of applying the natural scientific self-organizing, evolutionary, and non-equilibrium or "chaos" theory associated with the names of Prigogine and others to world problems of impending social, political, economic, and ecological "chaos" is gaining ground. The leap from natural science to social action, however, is impossible without considerable attention to the main intervening step: the development of "chaos"-equivalent, evolution-, systems-, and action-oriented social theory. Construction of such theory requires understanding by social scientists of natural scientific "chaos" theory as well as their own "chaos" theoretical heritage, of natural scientists of the now seemingly far distant social problem-solving potential of their nonequilibrium and self-organizing theories, and of both natural and social scientists of how advancement at both levels could help gain a peaceful as well as humanistic "order out of chaos" in this troubled world of ours. This paper surveys relevant concepts, problems, theorists, research, and works in progress within a perspective of the challenge of survival at a critical juncture in the evolution of our species.     

Average life expectancy of the population of the USSR

Mortality trends in the USSR from the middle of the nineteenth century to the present day are analyzed, with a focus on changes in life expectancy. The authors note that life expectancy increased up to 1964-1965, declined subsequently, and stabilized during the 1980s. Life expectancy has again started to rise since 1985. More detailed analyses of mortality differentials by sex and age and for the rural and urban populations are included. (SUMMARY IN ENG)