Competing for the diaspora's influence at home: party structure and transnational campaign activity in El Salvador

ABSTRACT

How do parties in migrant-sending countries engage with the diaspora? Migrants exercise an increasingly important voice in electoral politics in their home countries, though they often either cannot legally vote or vote in very low numbers, yet parties attempt to leverage the influence they believe migrants have over voters at home. However the degree and manner by which parties reach out to diaspora citizens varies widely. A case study of El Salvador points to party organisation as a determinant of variation among parties in diaspora campaigning, based on interviews with Salvadoran party elites in the U.S. and El Salvador, party documents, and historical comparison of campaign activities of El Salvador's two major parties, ARENA and FMLN, over three presidential elections and one mayoral election. FMLN, with a hierarchical model and base committee structure, more effectively mobilizes diaspora support while ARENA, with a horizontal model and sectoral structure, exhibits difficulties in party-diaspora coordination and largely makes indirect and symbolic references to diaspora issues.     

An exploratory study of acculturation among Muslims in Australia

Muslims constitute 2.2% of the Australian population. Given the current socio-political climate and the limited research, the present exploratory study explores the relationship between acculturation, ethnic identity, self-identity, generational status, religiosity, and demographics among adult Australian Muslims.

A cross-sectional convenience sample of 324 adult Australian Muslims completed either online or paper-based questionnaires in either English or Arabic. Recruitment was via convenience sampling and social media advertisements. Acculturation, ethnic identity (MEIM), religiosity, and demographic variables were measured.

The study sample was young and mostly female, with high religiosity levels. Acculturation was negatively correlated with ethnic identity. From multiple regression analysis, acculturation was predicted independently by religiosity (low), age (young), gender (male) and ethnic identity (low).

First generation Australian Muslims were older, had stronger ethnic identity and religiosity, and more commonly self-identified as non-Australian. By contrast second- and third-generation were more likely to self-identify as bicultural or Australian.

In summary, acculturation of Australian Muslims is influenced by multiple variables, particularly ethnic identity, religiosity, and generation; hence all these variables need to be included in policy regarding successful integration of migrants.     

A Level Playing Field: An Optimal Weighting Scheme of Dismissal Protection Characteristics

In collective redundancies, employers are forced to regard certain characteristics when deciding who to dismiss. This paper develops a procedure to derive an empirical‐based weighting scheme between protection characteristics in Germany (age, disability, dependencies, and tenure). Up to now, an objective weighting scheme is missing, and employers bargain with employee's representatives about the weighting of the characteristics. In the suggested procedure, the relationships of the four characteristics with reemployment probabilities and the quality of the new job are estimated. Then, the relevant outcome variable is chosen applying life satisfaction analysis. Finally, based on the empirical results, a weighting scheme for the characteristics is proposed, which serves as a guideline in the process of collective redundancies.     

Studying Complexity of Model-based Clustering

Cluster analysis is a popular statistics and computer science technique commonly used in various areas of research. In this article, we investigate factors that can influence clustering performance in the model-based clustering framework. The four factors considered are the level of overlap, number of clusters, number of dimensions, and sample size. Through a comprehensive simulation study, we investigate model-based clustering in different settings. As a measure of clustering performance, we employ three popular classification indices capable of reflecting the degree of agreement in two partitioning vectors, thus making the comparison between the true and estimated classification vectors possible. In addition to studying clustering complexity, the performance of the three classification measures is evaluated.     

Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Cell Phone Survey Feasibility in The U.S.: Sampling and Calling Cell Numbers Versus Landline Numbers

In 2004, we conducted a nationwide dual frame survey of landlineand cell phone numbers to evaluate the feasibility of includingcell phone numbers in a random digit dial telephone survey.Households with both landline and cell phones were eligiblefor selection in both samples. This article describes our designand data collection methods; compares the results from the twosamples (with an emphasis on operational characteristics); andpresents the outcomes of two experimental manipulations designedto improve the cell phone response rate.     

Sampling Telephone Numbers and Adults, Interview Length, and Weighting in The California Health Interview Survey Cell Phone Pilot Study

This article describes several features included in a CaliforniaHealth Interview Survey cell phone pilot study that differ fromearlier cell phone surveys conducted in the United States. Onedifference is that the study used a screening design and onlyadults living in cell-only households were interviewed. Mostof the previous studies used dual frame designs. Another differencewas the development and implementation of a within-householdadult sampling procedure to cover adults when cell phones wereshared in the household. The study was also intended to determineif conducting a cell phone interview of the same scope and lengthas a regular telephone interview was feasible. Most previoussurveys were focused on cell phone topics and were shorter thanthe comparable landline surveys. We then explore some interestingproblems that arise in weighting a cell phone survey using ascreening design. We conclude with a discussion of planninga new cell phone survey in 2007 that incorporates findings fromthis study.     

Mitofsky Waksberg: Learning From The Past

Warren Mitofsky and Joseph Waksberg were two of the most influentialresearchers in telephone surveys and survey research methods.Their development of the Mitofsky–Waksberg method forrandom digit dialing sampling revolutionized telephone samplingand surveys. Jointly and separately, Waksberg and Mitofsky wereinstrumental in the development of many innovative methods andapplications. This article reviews some of their contributionsand discusses how their approaches to these problems may bea model for addressing issues that are being encountered currentlyin the United States in cell phone research.     

Where local and national evaluators meet: unintended threats to ethical evaluation practice

The ethical work of program evaluators is based on a covenant of honesty and transparency among stakeholders. Yet even under the most favorable evaluation conditions, threats to ethical standards exist and muddle that covenant. Unfortunately, ethical issues associated with different evaluation structures and contracting arrangements have received little attention in the evaluation research literature. This article focuses on the unintended ethical threats associated with multitiered evaluation contexts. After briefly reviewing the various frames through which evaluation theory and ethics are commonly viewed, we discuss ethical challenges associated with multitiered evaluation designs including examples drawn from our evaluation projects. The article concludes with specific findings and recommendations for evaluators, grantors, grantees, and researchers.