Asymptotic behaviour of binned kernel density estimators for locally non-stationary random fields

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of binned kernel density estimators for dependent and locally non-stationary random fields converging to stationary random fields. We focus on the study of the bias and the asymptotic normality of the estimators. A simulation experiment conducted shows that both the kernel density estimator and the binned kernel density estimator have the same behavior and both estimate accurately the true density when the number of fields increases. We apply our results to the 2002 incidence rates of tuberculosis in the departments of France.     

Correlation and variable importance in random forests

This paper is about variable selection with the random forests algorithm in presence of correlated predictors. In high-dimensional regression or classification frameworks, variable selection is a difficult task, that becomes even more challenging in the presence of highly correlated predictors. Firstly we provide a theoretical study of the permutation importance measure for an additive regression model. This allows us to describe how the correlation between predictors impacts the permutation importance. Our results motivate the use of the recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm for variable selection in this context. This algorithm recursively eliminates the variables using permutation importance measure as a ranking criterion. Next various simulation experiments illustrate the efficiency of the RFE algorithm for selecting a small number of variables together with a good prediction error. Finally, this selection algorithm is tested on the Landsat Satellite data from the UCI Machine Learning Repository.     

Everyday tragedy and creation: Translated from the French by Karen Isabel Ocaña

In this essay, Michel Maffesoli exalts the poetry of the everyday, and a way of being that, paradoxically, opens one up to life through rituals that smack of a quest for divine nothingness. ‘Everyday Tragedy and Creation’ traces a series of connections: between Benjamin’s particular form of empirical mysticism and the notion of messianic time, the vitalism of Nietzsche (and tangentially his rediscovery of the Greek notion of tragedy and destiny), that of Bergson with his concept of duration, as well as the sociological hermeneutics of Dilthey. In the course of his discussion, Maffesoli invokes Verlaine, Rimbaud, street theatre and Eliot, and proposes a Zen-like approach to everyday happiness. More generally, Maffesoli rejects the temporality of modernism and drama and celebrates instead the ‘non-time’ of the tragedy of living in the present within a medium of communal images and practices.     

Divorce Alimony: An Estimation of its Determinants and of its Amount

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of the attribution of alimony to women after divorce, and to examine the main determinants of its amount. Three different theoretical models of marriage may influence judges'decision in attributing alimony: an investment-type marriage, a trade-type marriage or an association-type marriage. An estimation of the corresponding dichotomic variable is run using data we collected from six French courts. Results show that the probability of obtaining alimony is strongly increased if the divorce is declared to be the husband's fault; labour market participation of the ex-wife exerts a negative effect, as well as a decrease in relative wages of husband and wife. Finally, it appears that the amount of alimony is independent of the amount of child support.     

Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).     

FACILITATING INTIMACY: INTERVENTIONS AND EFFECTS

The Present study investigated by effects of two sets of marital interventions taken from Emotionally Focused Therapy (EFT) and Cognitive Marital Therapy (CMT) on level of marital intimacy, dyadic trust, and dyadic adjustment. It was hypothesized that both EFT and CMT would have a positive effect on levels of intimacy, trust, and adjustment as compared to a wait-list control group and that there would be a differential effect in favor of EFT as compared to CMT. Thirty-six couples free of marital distress and seeking to enhance theor intimate relationship were randomaly assigned to EFT, CMT, or a wai-list control group. Therapists' interventions were monitored and found to be faithfully implemented. Groups were equivalent on demographic variables and the quality of the therapeutic alliance. Both EFT and CMT group posttest means were found to be significantly higher than controls on the self-report measures of intimacy, Observational measures of intimacy revealed differential effects in favor of EFT as comopared to CMT at posttest. At a 10-week follow-up, EFT group means were significantly higher than CMT on self-reported intimacy and adjustment.     

Extremely Premature and Very Low Birthweight Infants: A Double Hazard Population?

This article evaluates the contributions of birth status (defined by gestational age and birthweight) and family adversity at birth and at age 7 to explaining behavior problems at age 7. The behaviors of 96 extremely preterm and very low birth‐weight children and 66 full‐term children were assessed in a school setting by peers, teachers and parents. The results show that a significant relationship exists between birth status and isolation and social withdrawal problems as well as between birth status and social immaturity and inattention problems. Family adversity at birth has a significant contribution to aggressive behaviors reported by the three sources whereas, at age 7, this index is associated only with aggressive behaviors and social immaturity problems reported by parents. In conclusion, the results of the present study qualify the findings of studies that suggest that at school age, the effect of prematurity decreases and that behavior problems are explained chiefly by family environment characteristics. Our results indicate that the findings must take into account the cohort studied, the environmental measures used, the type of behaviors assessed as well as the type of informants.