Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects

In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural‐technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold‐up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes.     

Flexible modeling of conditional distributions using smooth mixtures of asymmetric student t densities

A general model is proposed for flexibly estimating the density of a continuous response variable conditional on a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates. The model is a finite mixture of asymmetric student t densities with covariate-dependent mixture weights. The four parameters of the components, the mean, degrees of freedom, scale and skewness, are all modeled as functions of the covariates. Inference is Bayesian and the computation is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. To enable model parsimony, a variable selection prior is used in each set of covariates and among the covariates in the mixing weights. The model is used to analyze the distribution of daily stock market returns, and shown to more accurately forecast the distribution of returns than other widely used models for financial data.     

Risk taking on behalf of others: The role of social distance

Individuals take decisions on behalf of others in many different contexts. In this paper, we focus on lotteries with negative expected value and study if (and how) risky choices made on behalf of another person differ i) compared to decisions which do not affect anyone else, and ii) depending on the social distance between who makes the decision and who is affected by it. Our results show that social distance (i.e., whether the person affected by one’s decision is an unknown stranger or a friend) is an important determinant when people decide on behalf of others. Moreover, when deciding on behalf of a friend rather than only for themselves or a stranger, average individual behavior is closer to expected value maximization, exhibiting less risk taking. These findings suggest that responsibility for others’ outcome and the empathy gap affect the decision making process, particularly when the social distance is shortened. The results are robust to different feedback frequencies. Controlling for order effects shows that experiencing a decrease in social distance is crucial in activating this mechanism.     

Likelihood-based risk estimation for variance-gamma models

Although the variance-gamma distribution is a flexible model for log-returns of financial assets, so far it has found rather limited applications in finance and risk management. One of the reasons is that maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters is not straightforward. We develop an EM-type algorithm based on Nitithumbundit and Chan (An ECM algorithm for skewed multivariate variance gamma distribution in normal mean–variance representation, arXiv:1504.01239, 2015) that bypasses the evaluation of the full likelihood, which may be difficult because the density is not in closed form and is unbounded for small values of the shape parameter. Moreover, we study the relative efficiency of our approach with respect to the maximum likelihood estimation procedures implemented in the VarianceGamma and ghyp R packages. Extensive simulation experiments and real-data analyses suggest that the multicycle ECM algorithm gives the best results in terms of root-mean-squared-error, for both parameter and value-at-risk estimation. The performance of the routines in the ghyp R package is similar but not as good, whereas the VarianceGamma package produces worse results, especially when the shape parameter is small.     

The use of informal networks in Italy: Efficiency or favoritism?

A large body of literature considers the advantages of using informal networks to match workers to jobs. However, family ties may interfere with a genuine process of worker selection, favoring people with connections over more talented workers. We offer a simple model of favoritism to explain these risks and show firms’ trade-off in using informal channels. We then investigate empirically the determinants and consequences of using informal networks in Italy by using the Bank of Italy Survey. We find that informal networks tend to be used by low-educated individuals, in small firms, in low-productivity jobs and in less developed regions. Finally, we show that informal networks have a negative impact on wages, controlling for individual and firm characteristics.     

Occupational stress and biomechanical risk in a high fashion clothing company

Psychosocial discomfort may amplify job-related risk factors. The aim of this study is to evaluate job stress in a high fashion clothing company with upper limb biomechanical overload due to repetitive and forceful manual activities. Biomechanical risk was analyzed and in part reduced using the OCRA Check list. A total of 518 workers (433 females and 85 males) were investigated to determine anxiety (by STAI 1 and 2), occupational stress (using the Italian version of the Karasek Job Content Questionnaire) and perception of symptoms. Final biomechanical assessment did not reveal high risk jobs, except for cutting. Although the perception of anxiety and job insecurity was within the normal range, all the workers showed a high level of job strain (correlated with the perception of symptoms) due, probably, to very low decision latitude. It was suggested that job strain may increase the perception of symptoms. Moreover, the result of this study indicates that musculoskeletal overload has to be further analyzed since its low level is not in agreement with the level of discomfort due to the repetitive tasks.     

Disturbing the AcademicConferenceMachine: Post‐qualitative re‐turnings

Author 1:

They say they want to disturb the AcademicConferenceMachine.

Author 34:

What is an AcademicConferenceMachine?

Author 2:

Please do not go in that direction. Ask, for example, what does an AcademicConferenceMachine do?

Author 51:

Ok, so what does it do?

Author 6:

AcademicConferenceMachines are becoming so regulated and standardized that they might lose the possibility to produce different knowledge and to produce knowledge differently.

Author 227:

Do you think they succeeded?

Author 9999:

I do not know.

     

Honesty and Dishonesty Don’t Move Together: Trait Content Information Influences Behavioral Synchrony

Emerging evidence revealed that honesty and trustworthiness are important drivers of the impression-formation process. Questions remain, however, regarding the role of these moral attributes in guiding real and concrete behaviors. Filling this gap, the present study investigated the influence of honesty on a nonverbal behavior that regulates social interactions: behavioral synchrony. Movements were recorded while participants interacted with a partner who was depicted as honest (versus dishonest) or as friendly (versus unfriendly). Results showed that synchrony was affected only by the honesty of the partner. Specifically, the more the interaction partner lacked honesty, the lower the perceived similarity between the self and the interaction partner, which in turn diminished the promptness to engage in behavioral synchrony. Our findings connected the literature on behavioral synchrony with that on the implication of morality for social perception, revealing the key role of the honesty facet of moral character in shaping nonverbal behaviors.     

Job strain in different types of employment affects the immune response

The immune system, in cooperation with neuroendocrine functions, defends from cancer and infections mainly by the activity of blood natural killer (NK) cells. Blood NK activity may be influenced by the type of employment since work is the central part of life; moreover, job stress is a situation affecting both neuroendocrine and immune systems. This study examines anxiety (by STAI 1 and 2), job strain (by the Karasek's JCQ) and blood NK activity (by an in vitro radio-isotopic method) of 134 male workers. These men, over 38 years old with stable employment, were working in factories, in construction yards, in offices, as hospital attendants or as self-employed craftsmen. Workers in factories and in construction yards, with high job strain, showed lower NK activity, while office employees, with low job demand, and craftsmen with low anxiety and elevated decision latitude, showed higher NK activity; the level of NK activity of the hospital attendants was between the other groups. In conclusion, this study confirms that the type of employment, related to job stress, affects blood NK activity. Moreover, blood NK activity may be used in the bio-monitoring of workers at high risk.     

Values on Paper,in the Head,and in Action: On Max Weber and Value Freedom Today

This article starts out with a summary of Weber's views on value freedom, by emphasizing: (1) that value freedom constitutes a special constellation of values; and (2) that value freedom makes it possible for the social scientist to theorize on the basis of new and more extensive knowledge than if she had simply stated her own values and focused the analysis around these. The latter point emerges most clearly in Weber's instructions for how a social scientist should proceed when carrying out an analysis of her own preferred social policy. After the section on Weber's views on value freedom, an attempt is made to update his views. This is done by arguing that the impact of values (and value freedom) differs, depending on where these can be found: on paper, in the head of the social scientist, or in her actions. “Actions,” in the context of value freedom, refer to the research process and especially to the element of theorizing. Value freedom helps to guide the research into new and fruitful directions and to steer it clear of propaganda.