A Bayesian discovery procedure

Summary.  We discuss a Bayesian discovery procedure for multiple-comparison problems. We show that, under a coherent decision theoretic framework, a loss function combining true positive and false positive counts leads to a decision rule that is based on a threshold of the posterior probability of the alternative. Under a semiparametric model for the data, we show that the Bayes rule can be approximated by the optimal discovery procedure, which was recently introduced by Storey. Improving the approximation leads us to a Bayesian discovery procedure, which exploits the multiple shrinkage in clusters that are implied by the assumed non-parametric model. We compare the Bayesian discovery procedure and the optimal discovery procedure estimates in a simple simulation study and in an assessment of differential gene expression based on microarray data from tumour samples. We extend the setting of the optimal discovery procedure by discussing modifications of the loss function that lead to different single-thresholding statistics. Finally, we provide an application of the previous arguments to dependent (spatial) data.     

Measuring living standards with proxy variables

Very few demographic surveys in developing countries have gathered information on household incomes or consumption expenditures. Researchers interested in living standards therefore have had little alternative but to rely on simple proxy indicators. The properties of these proxies have not been analyzed systematically. We ask what hypotheses can be tested using proxies, and compare these indicators with consumption expenditures per adult, our preferred measure of living standards. We find that the proxies employed in much demographic research are very weak predictors of consumption per adult. Nevertheless, hypothesis tests based on proxies are likely to be powerful enough to warrant consideration.     

Can't do it alone: housing collaborations to improve foster youth outcomes

Research documents that youth transitioning out of the foster care system experience a variety of negative outcomes, including homelessness. Housing collaborations, which aim to comprehensively address resource and service needs for transitioning youth, including permanent connections, education, and employment, have resulted in innovative programming and forged new relationships among child welfare, social service and housing developers, and providers. This article describes the partners, models, and resources several collaborations used and their progress and outcomes; shares insights gained; and explores productive directions for future work.     

Technology spillover and regional convergence process: a statistical analysis of the Italian case

Recent literature broadly highlight the importance of modelling technological innovation effects on economic growth. This paper develops a methodology that allows to measure technology contribution to economic convergence; the choice of a regional framework also allows to underline interregional knowledge transmission as a the major channel of technological progress. Moreover, the specification of a dynamic growth model enables to evaluate both the regional convergence and the effect of innovation on long-run labour productivity without resorting to any technology index measurement. We contribute to the methodological literature also by comparing different dynamic panel data estimation procedures and by detecting both the presence of small sample bias and the existence of a nearly unit root autoregressive process in labour productivity series. The results of an empirical analysis on Italian regions show how most of innovation resources derives from relevant spillover mechanisms. Furthermore, technology spillover intensity seems to be strongly affected by geography and productive structure of regions.Financial support by Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Rimini and Uniturim S.p.A. is gratefully acknowledged.     

The Utility of Allport's Conditions of Intergroup Contact for Predicting Perceptions of Improved Racial Attitudes and Beliefs

We test the predictive power of perception as it relates to Allport's (1954/1979) classic articulation of the conditions of contact conducive to reducing intergroup prejudice and increasing tolerance. After summarizing theories of prejudice and models of prejudice reduction, as well as recently published reviews of evidence relating to the Contact Hypothesis, we present results of an evaluation of a prejudice reduction program that trains and places college student facilitators in middle and high school classrooms to lead discussions about race. We show that a composite of five classroom climate conditions that the Contact Hypothesis suggests are conducive to prejudice reduction predicts teachers' and college student facilitators' perceptions of change in three aspects of middle and high school student racial attitudes. Students' perceptions of the school interracial climate are modestly predictive of their changes in these three aspects of racial attitudes. However, teacher and facilitator estimates of student outcomes are uncorrelated with actual student outcomes. Implications of these results for prejudice reduction theory and practice are discussed.     

A Social Psychology of National and International Group Relations

This concluding article provides a framework for a social psychological analysis of intergroup conflict and conflict resolution. The framework highlights the individual and intergroup factors that shape the nature of perceptions of intergroup relations and group representations, and describes how these perceptions lead to cognitive, affective, and behavioral responses toward groups. Included in the framework are the metatheoretical, theoretical, and practical contributions of the articles in this issue toward understanding intergroup relations. The potential and responsibility of social psychologists to move beyond the laboratory to applied national and international issues is also discussed.     

Teaching Three Year-Olds to Pass False Belief Tests: A Conversational Approach

A training procedure was developed for teaching three year-old children to pass a standard false belief task. A series of 4 video sequences was developed, in each of which a child showed surprise following the unexpected transfer of an object. A group of 23 three year-olds who failed a standard false belief task took part in 8 discussions of the 4 video clips, over a period of two weeks, and were compared with a control group of 23 task-failers who had 8 story reading sessions over the same time period. The training involved (a) interactive recall of the initial events in each sequence, (b) factual questioning about the events and (c) an explanation of the thoughts and actions of the video protagonists. The emphasis was on positive elaboration of children's answers rather than on negative feedback as counter evidence. The training group performed significantly better at an immediate post-test, and at a follow-up test two weeks later, on a similar as well as a generalisation task. Task success was unrelated to vocabulary (BPVS) score, but was significantly related to success of responses during the training. The results indicate learning in the Training group of a discursive format for talking about events useful for describing false beliefs.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Egalitarianism and Affective Bias: Avenues to Reducing Prejudice Among Adolescents

In an era during which affirmative action in education is in jeopardy, it is important to understand how the ideologies of high-status ethnic group members maintain (or reduce) social inequality. We examine the extent to which the relationship between egalitarianism and prejudice among European American and Asian American adolescents can be explained by outgroup orientation (i.e., how much one values interacting with members of other ethnic groups) and strength of identification with one's ethnic group. Using structural equation modeling, we tested whether these two variables mediate the relationship between egalitarianism and intergroup prejudice. Results revealed that outgroup orientation was a mediator, but ethnic identity was not. Implications for mutual acculturation theory, prejudice-reduction programs, and affirmative action in education are discussed.