Ridge regression: A multivariate analysis of criminal activity

The objective of the paper is to apply the statistical procedure of ridge regression to a multivariate model of criminal activity. The explanatory variables are of an economic, apprehension, and seasonal nature. The Time Shared Reactive On Line Laboratory (TROLL) computer package was used in estimating all regression coefficients and other pertinent statistics. The economic variables, which included per capita personal income, hours worked, and plant closing dummy variable, were found to be statistically related to criminal activity. In addition, police expenditures as well as the three seasonal dummy variables were statistically associated with the dependent variable. A comparison is made between the results obtained from the ordinary least squares procedure and the ridge regression approach.     

Marriage Caretaking and Territorial Justice in an Australian State

Australian Marriage Guidance Councils are rarely considered avant garde. Yet contemporary emphasis on the importance of citizen participation in social service delivery programmes¹ unexpectedly shows them in the vanguard of the new art of mobilizing participatory community services. For more than a quarter of a century now they have been operating as expert guides and counsellors in the difficult territory of marital therapy, mainly using staffs of part-time counsellors drawn from the general community. The magnitude of this feat of maintaining the participatory character of this community service in a potentially rich field for professional exploitation goes largely unacknowledged. It has been pointed out that the professional, “because of his status, commitment and knowledge”,² is in most cases successful in converting citizen participation programmes into the service of his own professional interest. This has always been one of the most intractable problems of any participatory scheme. So far the Marriage Guidance Councils have stayed right on top of this problem.     

Analysis of a factorial quantal response assay using inverse regression

An inverse regression approach to analyzing quantal response assays with one quanritative independent- variable and any number of qualitative independent variables is presented. A general factorial model ror LQC- inverted relationship and methods of testing hypotheses estimating qulitative Interest are developed. This naper provides a modified method of analysis which is easier to apply than previously existing methods.     

An Empirical Analysis of Backlog,Inventory, Production,and Price Adjustments: An Application of Recursive Systems of Log-Linear Models

This article presents an empirical analysis of firms' order backlogs, inventories, production, and price adjustments to unanticipated demand shocks. The data are obtained from quarterly INSEE Business Survey Tests on firms' realizations, expectations, and appraisals of some various economic variables. The analysis is based on the formulation and the estimation of a recursive system of conditional log-linear probability models.     

The implementation of the bayesian paradigm

Routine implementation of the Bayesian paradigm requires an efficient approach to the calculation and display of posterior or predictive distributions for given likelihood and prior specifi- cations. In this paper we shall review some of the analytic and numerical approaches currently available, describing in detail a numerical integration strategy based on Gaussian quadrature, and an associated strategy for the reconstruction and display of distributions based on spline techniques.     

Noninformative priors for the normal variance ratio

In this paper, we consider noninformative priors for the ratio of variances in two normal populations. We develop first and second order matching priors. We find that the second order matching prior matches alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and is also a HPD matching prior. It turns out that among the reference priors, only one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a second order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the one-at-a-time reference prior performs better than other reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. This work is supported by Korea Research Foundation Grant (KRF-2004-002-C00041).     

Consequences of work force reduction: Some employer and union evidence

Despite the popularity of workforce cutbacks in the 1990s, largescale empirical stud-ies at the bargaining unit level are rare. I explore some of the consequences of per-manent work force reduction using data from both employer and union respondents. About 56 percent of employer participants and 57 percent of local union officials reported a permanent reduction of bargaining unit employees. In comparing bargain-ing units that experienced a permanent reduction of union members, results obtained from both employers and union officials indicated a significant negative impact on over-all employee satisfaction and labor climate. Additional analyses with union respon-dents revealed that the reduction of bargaining unit employees was also associated with a higher rate of grievances and absenteeism and poorer relations between union members and their supervisors.     

Prior distribution assessment for a multivariate normal distribution: an experimental study

A variety of methods of eliciting a prior distribution for a multivariate normal (MVN) distribution have recently been proposed. This paper reports an experiment in which 16 meteorologists used the methods to quantify their opinions about climatology variables. Our results compare prior models and show, in particular, that it can be better to assume the mean and variance of an MVN distribution are independent a priori, rather than to model opinion by the conjugate prior distribution. Using a proper scoring rule, different forms of assessment task are examined and alternative ways of estimating parameters are compared. To quantify opinion about means, it proved preferable to ask directly about the means rather than individual observations while, to quantify opinion about the variance matrix, it was best to ask about deviations from the mean. Further results include recommendations for the way parameters of the prior distribution are estimated.