SELECTING PARAMETERS FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

The objective of this paper is to discover which of three forecasting modes used to select parameters for four short-term forecasting techniques minimizes errors. The study also examines whether the amount of historical data used to find parameters contributes to forecasting success. The results show the traditional one-ahead search routine works well in some, but not all, forecasting situations. Also, forecasting errors appear to decline when more historical data are included in the parameter search.     

AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTER-ASSISTED DECISION ANALYSIS*

Decision analysis tools often are used in semistructured and ill-structured situations. While some researchers have argued that computerized decision analysis programs may improve decision quality in such situations, research support for this assertion is weak. In this laboratory study, business students used a computerized decision-analysis program with short strategic-management cases to prepare decision reports. Independent raters' perceptions of aided and unaided decision performance were contrasted, attitudes of students toward the program were assessed, individual differences were correlated with attitudes, and the program's impact on students' perceptions of their decision processes and performance was examined. Student attitudes toward the computerized aid were favorable, and individual differences in reactions generally were as predicted. However, the program did not improve the independent ratings of students' decision reports and recommendations. These findings suggest that computerized decision aids should be adopted cautiously. If such aids result in positive user affect and heightened decision confidence without corresponding improvements in decision quality, they may be dysfunctional. Rigorous research methodologies which incorporate independent evaluations of analyses and decisions are recommended for use in future research on computerized decision-analysis programs.     

Comparing several independent correlations with a standard correlation

The Dunnett procedure for comparing several treatments with a control is applied to the problem of comparing several independent correlations with a standard correlation. Appropriate critical values are specified and an example is provided.     

Consumer Privacy: Balancing Economic and Justice Considerations

Consumer privacy is at the center of an ongoing debate among business leaders, privacy activists, and government officials. Although corporations face competitive pressures to collect and use personal information about their customers, many consumers find some methods of collection and use of their personal information unfair. We present a justice theory framework that illustrates how consumer privacy concerns are shaped by the perceived fairness of corporate information practices. We describe a set of global principles, fair information practices, which were developed to balance consumer privacy concerns with an organization's need to use personal information. We conclude by discussing three alternatives for implementing fair information practices with particular attention to the Internet: government regulation, industry self-regulation, and technological solutions .     

Professional Social Science: Responsible as Well as Respectable?

Acceptable professional behaviour for social scientists has strayed from traditional ideals. Among other reasons, the predominantly middle-class world view of most social science professionals has contributed to a narrow perspective on social matters which often leaves prevailing societal assumptions unchallenged. The emerging vision of a socially responsible role for social scientists calls into question many currently accepted aspects of professionalism, and the paper argues for a change of emphasis within social science to accommodate this new vision within the fold of professional respectability.     

Information management support for international negotiations

This paper examines the information processing requirements that surround the international negotiations process. General problem-solving models and generic task taxonomies are explored to provide insight into this process, a process that can be characterized as iterative options analysis. The paper also identifies a set of existing and emerging information technologies that can support the negotiation process, technologies that range from electronic mail to group decision support systems. The premise of the paper is that cost-effective information technology can support many important negotiation tasks and that existing technology has been vastly under-exploited by negotiators and their staffs. A program for introducing and evaluating information technology is also proposed.     

The Stability of Social Groups in Childhood and Adolescence: The Role of the Classroom Social Environment.

This study provides a developmental analysis of childhood and adolescent social relationships within the school context. The social groups of 220 fourth graders and 475 seventh graders were tracked over a one year interval. The initial results indicated that approximately 30% of the social groups were identified as stable in that they maintained at least 50% of their membership over the one year interval. However, the stability in group affiliations was a function of the stability of the composition of the classroom. When schools did not promote classrooms as a unit, only 6.8% of social groups were stable, as compared to 55% of groups being stable when the school did promote classrooms as a unit. This school effect in group stability was demonstrated by a high correlation (rs = .97) between classroom stability and group stability. Even in unstable classrooms, individuals were more likely to maintain affiliations when group members were assigned to the same classroom. This work suggests that stable environments promote stable relationships, which in turn, may promote greater continuity in the organization of behavioral patterns.