Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets

This paper considers a general equilibrium model in which the distinction between uncertainty and risk is formalized by assuming agents have incomplete preferences over state‐contingent consumption bundles, as in Bewley (1986). Without completeness, individual decision making depends on a set of probability distributions over the state space. A bundle is preferred to another if and only if it has larger expected utility for all probabilities in this set. When preferences are complete this set is a singleton, and the model reduces to standard expected utility. In this setting, we characterize Pareto optima and equilibria, and show that the presence of uncertainty generates robust indeterminacies in equilibrium prices and allocations for any specification of initial endowments. We derive comparative statics results linking the degree of uncertainty with changes in equilibria. Despite the presence of robust indeterminacies, we show that equilibrium prices and allocations vary continuously with underlying fundamentals. Equilibria in a standard risk economy are thus robust to adding small degrees of uncertainty. Finally, we give conditions under which some assets are not traded due to uncertainty aversion.     

Digital Peer Interactions Affect Risk Taking in Young Adults

Digital interactions are an increasingly common communication method among young adults, but little is known about whether such remote exchanges influence riskiness. The current study examined whether observing and interacting with, versus simply observing, a digital peer affect risk taking in young adults aged 18–25. Participants who remotely viewed risky behavior by a peer or computer increased risk taking; however, compared to a control condition, only exposure to risk‐encouraging messages from a digital peer resulted in sustained risk‐taking behavior. These findings suggest that short text‐based messages from a risk‐encouraging digital peer can influence risk‐taking behavior in young adults. Given the rapid proliferation of digital communication among this age group, these results highlight a potentially important source of peer influence on risky behavior.     

War against War!: pictures as means of social struggle in post-First World War Europe

Germany 1925: Ernst Friedrich, a young anarchist and anti-militarist activist, publishes one of the first independent books composed only of photographs and captions: War against War! His stated goal is to employ classified pictures of the First World War (WWI) to unmask nationalistic propaganda and expose the false narratives of militaristic rhetoric. Published on the eve of the golden age of photojournalism, this book is the first grassroots attempt to use photography as a means of social and cultural change on a large scale. Through in-depth analysis of some key pictures, I will investigate the relation this series of images establishes with the beholder and the role it plays in shaping his visual experience. Emphasis will be placed on 24 close-ups of disfigured faces which constitute the last set of this visually driven narrative. As I will seek to demonstrate, the complex array of pictures created by Ernst Friedrich testifies to a fundamental yet still embryonic change in the social perception of photography in the post-WWI Europe.     

Modeling Longitudinal Obesity Data with Intermittent Missingness Using a New Latent Variable Model

We propose a latent variable model for informative missingness in longitudinal studies which is an extension of latent dropout class model. In our model, the value of the latent variable is affected by the missingness pattern and it is also used as a covariate in modeling the longitudinal response. So the latent variable links the longitudinal response and the missingness process. In our model, the latent variable is continuous instead of categorical and we assume that it is from a normal distribution. The EM algorithm is used to obtain the estimates of the parameter we are interested in and Gauss–Hermite quadrature is used to approximate the integration of the latent variable. The standard errors of the parameter estimates can be obtained from the bootstrap method or from the inverse of the Fisher information matrix of the final marginal likelihood. Comparisons are made to the mixed model and complete-case analysis in terms of a clinical trial dataset, which is Weight Gain Prevention among Women (WGPW) study. We use the generalized Pearson residuals to assess the fit of the proposed latent variable model.     

Resettled Refugee Youth Leveraging Their Out-of-School Literacy Practices to Accomplish Schoolwork

This ethnographic study explores how three resettled refugee teens leveraged their out-of-school literacy practices to accomplish their schoolwork. As teens drew upon their out-of-school literacy practices, such as translanguaging and social media practices to make sense of homework, they created third spaces wherein they strategically merged their literacies to achieve their goals. This research provides implications for how educators can design learning environments that enable teens to do this type of complex work.     

Acceptance of Global Positioning System (GPS) Technology Among Dementia Clients and Family Caregivers

The purpose of this study was to examine the acceptance of Global Positioning System (GPS) used to help people with dementia, who are at risk for wandering in their communities. We used a mixed methods research approach that included use logs, pre and post paper-based questionnaires, and focus groups. Forty-five client-caregiver pairs (dyads) were included to use one of the GPS devices for an average of 5.8 months over a 1-year period. GPS acceptance was high; dyads were likely to continue using the GPS. According to the participants, the GPS provided caregivers peace of mind and reduced anxiety in dyads when clients got lost.     

Not Necessarily Solidarity

Since the idea of “women's rights as human rights” emerged, there has been a wave of international donors, organizations and transnational feminist activists successfully delivering pressure and resources in the struggle to mitigate violence against women worldwide. Through these transnational networks, decisions regarding which local problems to address and how to manage them are often made at the international level. Most scholarship has rightly celebrated the advances for women's rights that have been made possible due to the impact of international organizations and transnational advocacy networks. However, there are many dilemmas that arise from this North-centric approach to assigning and managing priorities – especially among development aid organizations. Coordination with international donors is often necessary and has been a major source of advances. However, there are still some potentially harmful impacts of having to engage in these networks in order to address violence against women – including a disproportionate focus on short-term results while neglecting long-term goals. This article articulates these dilemmas and explains how international feminist human rights norms can be more successfully translated into a stronger sense of solidarity across borders and more sustainable advances for women. Examples are drawn from the Central American countries of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.     

Toddler Emotion Regulation With Mothers and Fathers: Temporal Associations Between Negative Affect and Behavioral Strategies

The present study investigated temporal associations between putative emotion regulation strategies and negative affect in 20‐month‐old toddlers. Toddlers’ parent‐focused, self‐distraction, and toy‐focused strategies, as well as negative affect, were rated on a second‐by‐second basis during laboratory parent–toddler interactions. Longitudinal mixed‐effects models were conducted to determine the degree to which behavioral strategy use predicts subsequent negative affect and negative affect predicts subsequent strategy use. Results with mother–toddler and father–toddler dyads indicated that parent‐focused strategies with an unresponsive parent were followed by increases in negative affect, whereas toy‐focused strategies were followed by decreases in negative affect. Results also indicated that toddler negative affect serves to regulate behavioral strategy use within both parent contexts.     

Gender differences in substance use and initiation of sexual activity

Even though widespread efforts have focused on educating young adults about HIV and AIDS, many individuals continue to engage in behaviors that place them at risk. These behaviors include frequent experimentation with alcohol and other drugs prior to sex, engaging in sexual activity with different partners, and inconsistent safe sex practices (Butcher et al. 1991). The combination of these risky behaviors causes increased concern about the spread of HIV among those of college age. This study focused on two behaviors by examining the relationship between substance use during adolescence and early initiation of sexual activity in a sample of 950 subjects aged 19–21 in a mid-sized southern city. Results indicate that early use of alcohol and marijuana relates to earlier initiation of sexual activity and subsequent risky sexual behavior among young adults. Also, gender differences were observed for frequent users of marijuana and alcohol with males engaging in riskier sexual practices. Recommendations for interventions are made.     

Female Employment and Reproductive Behavior in Taiwan, 1980

The impact of female employment on fertility preferences and behavior is examined with data from a 1980 national sample of Taiwanese women. The guiding hypothesis is that the greater the involvement of women in the impersonal market sector, the lower the fertility preferences, the longer the first birth interval, and the lower the actual fertility. Findings reveal that female employment in Taiwan is only weakly related to reproductive behavior. Even with increased participation of women in the modern market sector, female employment apparently has little impact on fertility preferences or behavior. Implications are drawn for policies aimed at lowering fertility.