A Bayesian mixture of experts approach to covariate misclassification

This article considers misclassification of categorical covariates in the context of regression analysis; if unaccounted for, such errors usually result in mis-estimation of model parameters. With the presence of additional covariates, we exploit the fact that explicitly modelling non-differential misclassification with respect to the response leads to a mixture regression representation. Under the framework of mixture of experts, we enable the reclassification probabilities to vary with other covariates, a situation commonly caused by misclassification that is differential on certain covariates and/or by dependence between the misclassified and additional covariates. Using Bayesian inference, the mixture approach combines learning from data with external information on the magnitude of errors when it is available. In addition to proving the theoretical identifiability of the mixture of experts approach, we study the amount of efficiency loss resulting from covariate misclassification and the usefulness of external information in mitigating such loss. The method is applied to adjust for misclassification on self-reported cocaine use in the Longitudinal Studies of HIV-Associated Lung Infections and Complications.     

Compulsory income management: Combatting or compounding the underlying causes of homelessness?

Compulsory Income Management (CIM) is a form of conditional welfare that involves the mandatory quarantining of a portion of welfare recipients’ social security payments. Quarantined funds are accessible via a government-issued debit card, with restrictions surrounding where and on what funds can be spent. Official justifications of CIM have framed these policies as attempts to combat substance abuse and gambling problems, and to thus secure better outcomes for welfare recipients and their families. Central to this narrative has been the argument that welfare quarantining will ensure more money is spent on ‘essentials’, including accommodation. No existing studies, however, have specifically interrogated the impacts of CIM on housing security. This article responds to this gap in the literature by reviewing existing research concerning CIM's impacts and locating this research within broader debates regarding the causes of homelessness and the efficacy of individualised policy interventions. In doing so, it highlights CIM's potential to exacerbate housing insecurity not only through technical issues such as rental transfer failures, but also by contributing to underlying stressors such as economic disadvantage; relationship difficulties, poor health and addiction; and social stigma. The article concludes that – far from addressing the structural causes of homelessness – CIM has enflamed them.     

Marital Aspirations,Sexual Behaviors,and HIV/AIDS in Rural Malawi

We explore how marital aspirations are related to the sexual behaviors of adolescents and young adults in Malawi, where HIV/AIDS prevalence among adults exceeds 10%. We also consider whether the specter of AIDS is shaping ideals about marriage. By combining survey data (N = 1,087) and in‐depth interviews (N = 133) with young Malawians from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project, we show that looking for and finding a suitable spouse are linked to sexual behaviors and, thus, HIV risks. Moreover, concerns about contracting HIV are closely tied to the ideal characteristics of a future spouse. Our findings draw long‐overdue attention to the importance of marital aspirations in understanding adolescent sexual behaviors and risks in the era of AIDS.     

Strategic alliances in fast-moving markets

The pace of technological change and market shifts is forcing organizations to reconsider their strategies for creating sustainable competitive advantage. Strategic alliances focused on destabilizing market values are currently the most effective source of sustainable competitive advantage. The purpose of this article is to explain how successful strategic alliances can be arranged in fast-moving markets.     

Malaria eradication and its effect on mortality levels: A comment

Abstract In his article 'Malaria eradication and its effect on mortality levels' (Population Studies d21, 3, November 1967) Dr. S. A. Meegama criticised the approach followed by Professor Peter Newman in an earlier investigation of the effects of malaria eradication in Ceylon. In the present series of comments and rejoinders, Professor Newman and Dr. Meegama discuss in detail their interpretations of the data and the methods they have used in assessing the role of malaria eradication.     

Opportunity theory and adolescent school-based victimization

While school-based adolescent victimization has received a great deal of public attention, there exist relatively few theoretically driven studies aimed at explaining this phenomenon. We address this paucity by providing a test of a criminal-opportunity model of school-based victimization using data on over 3,000 students from 40 different Kentucky middle and high schools. The effects of opportunity-related concepts are estimated for both violent and property victimization, and comparisons are made for each victimization type across middle- and high-school student subsamples. Findings suggest that criminal opportunity theory is relevant to the understanding of school-based victimization. In particular, indicators of exposure to crime and target antagonism appear to be robust predictors. Further, there appears to be substantial generalizability in the effects of opportunity-related variables across violent versus property victimization as well as across middle-school versus high-school contexts.     

Illinois's child welfare research agenda: an approach to building consensus for practice-based research

This article presents a consensus-building initiative to develop a statewide research agenda that responds to the needs of Illinois's child welfare community. Researchers conducted this process through a university-community partnership to engage those interested in child welfare services. The process and findings resulted in a living document that will guide child welfare research throughout the state. Findings of the inquiry suggest that the development of best practice models may be one of the most important contributions research can make to practice.