From the Third Sector to the Big Society: How Changing UK Government Policies Have Eroded Third Sector Trust

This article draws on concepts of trust to analyse recent policies affecting public/third sector relationships, examining competition, ‘command and control’ mechanisms and the community turn in shaping cultures of relationships. Drawing on examples from empirical studies in two English inner-city areas we explore ways in which power and controls exerted through dominant organisational cultures and arrangements undermine independent approaches, innovation and organisational learning across sectors. State bodies have taken trust in their actions as given while shifting responsibilities for service delivery and risks of failure to others. We argue that increasing market cultures and regulation have damaged cross-sector trust promoting divisive interests and risk-averse behaviours, restricting the local autonomy, innovation and community action presumed in the Big Society agenda. We conclude by highlighting issues that need to be addressed to ensure future collaboration with community-based providers; these include a focus on the processes and relational spaces which enable alternatives.     

Review

For the time being: ethnography of everyday life By Richard Quinney. New York: State University of New York Press, 1998. 198 pages. $20.95 paper. ISBN: 079143852x.     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

On the use of partial confounding for the construction of alternative regular two-level blocked fractional factorial designs

In this paper, we consider experimental situations in which a regular fractional factorial design is to be used to study the effects of m two-level factors using n=2^m−k experimental units arranged in 2^p blocks of size 2^m−k−p. In such situations, two-factor interactions are often confounded with blocks and complete information is lost on these two-factor interactions. Here we consider the use of the foldover technique in conjunction with combining designs having different blocking schemes to produce alternative partially confounded blocked fractional factorial designs that have more estimable two-factor interactions or a higher estimation capacity or both than their traditional counterparts.     

Remarried Couples in Premarital Education: Does the Content Match Participant Needs?

Although premarital education has been found to reduce risk factors of divorce, the use of premarital education has primarily been examined in first marriages, or in groups combining both first and later marriages. In this qualitative study, 8 remarried couples’ perceptions of the premarital education they received were explored. The coexisting core categories of the desire to create a loving relationship yet fear of repeated marital failure emerged. The results implied that remarried couples carried an additional fear of marital dissolution, which in conjunction with the complex tasks associated with stepfamily formation, promoted attachment insecurities. Clinical applications are included.     

Target detection from a classical and a Bayesian viewpoint

Two approaches have been used for designing spatial surveys to detect a target. The classical approach controls the probability of missing a target that exists; a Bayesian approach controls the probability that a target exists given that none was seen. In both cases, information about the likely size of the target can reduce sampling requirements. In this paper, previous results are summarized and then used to assess the risk that Roman remains could be present at sites scheduled for development in Greater London.