Negotiating the Unknown: The Role of Uncertainty in Social Exchange

This article documents the role of uncertainty in social exchange. Specifically, it reviews how social exchange theorists incorporate uncertainty when explaining psychological processes and social behaviors. After identifying and examining the structural roots of uncertainty, the article addresses how uncertainty affects actor behavior and attitude formation, from curbing power use to promoting the development of more committed, trusting and cohesive exchange partnerships. By assessing the consequences of uncertainty and risk for social exchange, this article contributes to sociological knowledge about the nature and form of relationships in an uncertain world.     

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation

We discuss the development of dynamic factor models for multivariate financial time series, and the incorporation of stochastic volatility components for latent factor processes. Bayesian inference and computation is developed and explored in a study of the dynamic factor structure of daily spot exchange rates for a selection of international currencies. The models are direct generalizations of univariate stochastic volatility models and represent specific varieties of models recently discussed in the growing multivariate stochastic volatility literature. We discuss model fitting based on retrospective data and sequential analysis for forward filtering and short-term forecasting. Analyses are compared with results from the much simpler method of dynamic variance-matrix discounting that, for over a decade, has been a standard approach in applied financial econometrics. We study these models in analysis, forecasting, and sequential portfolio allocation for a selected set of international exchange-rate-return time series. Our goals are to understand a range of modeling questions arising in using these factor models and to explore empirical performance in portfolio construction relative to discount approaches. We report on our experiences and conclude with comments about the practical utility of structured factor models and on future potential model extensions.     

Rear gunners and troubled privates: Wordplay in a dick joke competition1

A humorous competition called ‘The Adventures of Naked Man’ ran in a Wellington (New Zealand) newspaper from 1999 to 2000. The competition's protagonist is the sole naked person in a drawn setting where, because of some convenient object or body position, his penis is obscured from sight. Entrants to the competition submitted a caption to go with the drawn setting, the point being to make humour. Without explicit instruction, most entrants constructed some form of dick joke, the interesting questions being, just how, and with what variations? These questions are pursued by drawing on the full corpus of Naked Man settings and captions. Basic principles of conversation analysis, including some early work of Sacks on punning, are used to analyse the nature and popularity of the Naked Man competition. The article also offers some more speculative comments to do with gender and the organisation of language about sexuality.     

Using the 2001 census to study human capital movements affecting Britain's larger cities: insights and issues

Summary.  Human capital is increasingly being recognized as crucial to the sustained growth of British cities, and the population census is unrivalled as a source of data on the characteristics of people moving to and from cities. Taking advantage of new features in the 2001 census, the paper examines how successful 27 of Britain's largest cities and their regions are in maintaining their labour force complement, giving particular attention to young adults and people working in high level occupations. Considerable variation is apparent between city regions, but the interpretation of results is somewhat hampered by limitations in the census data, prompting recommendations for future data collection.     

Performance measurement frameworks in public and non-profit sectors

In the last decade much attention has been devoted to developing performance measurement systems (PMS), which could encompass both financial and non-financial measures. Many frameworks have been conceived in order to allow companies to better evaluate their own performance by means of collected data, but few attempts have been made to provide public and non-profit organizations with PMS devoted explicitly for their needs. The aims of this paper are to review the frameworks currently developed and implemented in public and non-profit organizations and to identify the requirements of a framework, which can be applied in this context.     

Peak performing organisations

The literature on organisational performance is riddled with measurement problems that cannot easily be solved. In contrast we argue that elite theory in terms of performance can be more easily measured by the win record of sports organisations. Accordingly, this article argues that certain organisational peak practices are key to understanding how peak performance is sustained. Through data collected from the top ten sports organisations in the world we introduce the embryonic theory of Peak Performing Organisations (PPO). Sustained PPO practices offer more robust outcomes than the genre of High Performing Organisations.     

The making of 'Home Improvements - tools for working with families in Aotearoa/ New Zealand'. Reflections on creating a video resource for teaching purposes

In this article, two social work practitioners explore, with all the wisdom of hindsight, the joys and pitfalls of venturing into video production as a medium for creating a teaching and learning resource. Their discoveries are organised under a number of key themes beginning with an idea and leading into commitment to a project involving a crew, a cast and a steep but captivating learning curve on the use of audio visual technology. Other practitioners similarly interested in the potential of this medium but without much experience, will find this article of great benefit in providing practical tips and insights, and demystifying the tasks and terminology associated with video production.