From the Third Sector to the Big Society: How Changing UK Government Policies Have Eroded Third Sector Trust

This article draws on concepts of trust to analyse recent policies affecting public/third sector relationships, examining competition, ‘command and control’ mechanisms and the community turn in shaping cultures of relationships. Drawing on examples from empirical studies in two English inner-city areas we explore ways in which power and controls exerted through dominant organisational cultures and arrangements undermine independent approaches, innovation and organisational learning across sectors. State bodies have taken trust in their actions as given while shifting responsibilities for service delivery and risks of failure to others. We argue that increasing market cultures and regulation have damaged cross-sector trust promoting divisive interests and risk-averse behaviours, restricting the local autonomy, innovation and community action presumed in the Big Society agenda. We conclude by highlighting issues that need to be addressed to ensure future collaboration with community-based providers; these include a focus on the processes and relational spaces which enable alternatives.     

Auswirkungen von Macht auf das ��berleben in Extremsituationen: Ein Vergleich der Titanic und Lusitania Schiffskatastrophen

Comparing the Titanic and Lusitania disaster the impact of financial and physical power as well as the emergence of social norms on survival during life-and-death situations is analyzed. Despite the fact that some maritime disasters have become famous, a quantitative understanding of survival in life-and-death situations is still lacking. In a quasi-natural experiment multivariate probit estimations are conducted based on publicly available data. The paper suggests that in life-and-death situations differences in time restrictions are crucial. When time is scarce individual self-interested fight-or-flight behavior will predominate and result in a stronger competition for survival. In contrast, altruism and adherence to social norms emerge when there is sufficient time to reflect on the event and circumstances: Social norms require time to evolve, and they loose against physical strength in a shorter window of opportunity.     

Review

For the time being: ethnography of everyday life By Richard Quinney. New York: State University of New York Press, 1998. 198 pages. $20.95 paper. ISBN: 079143852x.     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

Remarried Couples in Premarital Education: Does the Content Match Participant Needs?

Although premarital education has been found to reduce risk factors of divorce, the use of premarital education has primarily been examined in first marriages, or in groups combining both first and later marriages. In this qualitative study, 8 remarried couples’ perceptions of the premarital education they received were explored. The coexisting core categories of the desire to create a loving relationship yet fear of repeated marital failure emerged. The results implied that remarried couples carried an additional fear of marital dissolution, which in conjunction with the complex tasks associated with stepfamily formation, promoted attachment insecurities. Clinical applications are included.     

Demographic Influences on Risk Perceptions

Over the past 15 years, psychologists have empirically investigated how people perceive technological, consumer, and natural hazards. The psychometric-attitudes to risk being summarized by three factors: "dread," whether the risk is known, and personal exposure to the risk. The results have been used to suggest that certain types of hazards are viewed very differently from other hazards. The purpose of this paper is somewhat different, in that it investigates whether individual demographic characteristics influence psychometric perceptions of risk. This paper makes use of a large, professionally conducted, survey of a wide cross-section of the residents of metropolitan Chicago. One thousand adults were interviewed in a random-digit dial telephone survey, producing a useable dataset of about 800. Data on the three risk factors mentioned above were obtained on 7-point scales for four common hazards: aviation accidents, fires in the home, automobile accidents, and stomach cancer. The survey also collected demographic data on respondents'age, schooling, income, sex, and race. Regressions were then conducted to relate the demographic characteristics to risk perceptions. Some strong general conclusions can be drawn. The results suggest that women, people with lower levels of schooling and income, younger people, and blacks have more dread of hazards. The exception being age-related illnesses which, not unnaturally, are feared by older people. Unlike previous literature, we cannot substantiate the argument that these groups of people are less informed about hazards and thus less accepting of them. The most likely leading explanation of the relationship between demographic factors and dread of a hazard is the perceived personal exposure to the hazard. People with greater perceived exposure to a hazard are more fearful.