Integrated logistics-call in the revolutionaries!

This paper argues that the ability of logistics to achieve its aim of efficient and effective interfunctional co-ordination is hindered by the particular paradigm to which it unwittingly adheres. We begin by defining and setting out the objectives of both ‘traditional’ and ‘non-traditional’ forms of logistics, and demonstrate that there is doubt about whether even the newer form can achieve proper interfunctional co-ordination or gain widespread acceptance in the practitioner community. In order to understand why, it is suggested that an analysis is required of the theoretical assumptions upon which contemporary logistics is based. Despite recent developments in logistics it may be that it is some unquestioned paradigm, upon which all logisticians hitherto have relied, which is preventing genuine progress being made. A paradigm analysis is conducted which reveals that both traditional and non-traditional logistics are ‘functionalist’ in nature. It is argued that the main problems faced by logistics derive from this. Logistics suffers from the failings of functionalist thinking and its ambitions will continue to be frustrated unless it is able to achieve an ‘epistemological break’ from functionalism. Logisticians must look towards other paradigms in order to progress. Logistics is in need of its own revolutionaries.     

Age structure and income distribution policy

The dependence of earnings on age is a firmly established empirical fact. A simple microeconomic model of educational choice, being consistent with this observation, is designed. The model lends itself readily to aggregation over individuals and age groups. Thus, relations can be set up between economic variables influencing the aggregate distribution of labor incomes and demographic variables determining the age structure of the population. The main results of the present study are: 1) overall earnings inequality is shown to be an increasing function of life expectancy and a decreasing function of fertility. 2) The effectiveness of redistributive policies is sensitive to the age composition. In particular, the inequality-reducing effect of a 1% income tax rise is shown to be smaller the older the population.     

Consistency,asymptotic unbiasedness and bounds on the bias of s2 in the linear regression model with error component disturbances

The OLS estimator of the disturbance variance in the linear regression model with error component disturbances is shown to be weakly consistent and asymptotically unbiased without any restrictions on the regressor matrix. Also, simple exact bounds on the expected value of s² are given for both the one-way and two-way error component models.     

The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels,Recent Trends,and the Impact of the Financial Crisis

While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004–2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 years for females. The recession had a tremendous impact on the Spanish labor market, but the effects differed considerably by gender and occupational category. Men working in skilled non-manual jobs were less affected, while men working in unskilled manual jobs lost close to 14 years of working life expectancy. Women were less affected than men. With working life expectancy decreasing, the average proportion of lifetime spent in unemployment and outside the labor market increased markedly, whereas the average number of years spent in retirement changed only a little. When we decompose losses in working life expectancy by age group, we find that economic fluctuations affect both older and younger workers. This result suggests that policies that focus on retirement ages only are incomplete. We also compare our findings to the results obtained by Sullivans method, which is based on prevalence rates rather than the incidence-based working life table approach. We find that the use of Sullivans approach does not accurately reflect the levels of and the trends in working life expectancy.     

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques

When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. To alleviate the problem, White (2006 White, H. (2006). Approximate nonlinear forecasting methods. In: Elliott, G. Granger, C. W. J. Timmermann, A. eds. Handbook of Economic Forecasting, volume 1, Amsterdam:Elsevier, pp. 459–512.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) presented a solution (QuickNet) that converts the specification and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. We shall compare its performance to that of two other procedures building on the linearization idea: the Marginal Bridge Estimator and Autometrics. Second, one must decide whether forecasting should be carried out recursively or directly. This choice is investigated in this work. The economic time series used in this study are the consumer price indices for the G7 and the Scandinavian countries. In addition, a number of simulations are carried out and results reported in the article.     

The longitudinal development of employee well-being: a systematic review

This article reports a systematic review of findings on the long-term development of employee well-being, taking into account the effects of time lag, age, and job change. High-quality quantitative empirical studies focusing on employee affective well-being based on the circumplex model and utilizing measurements at more than two points in time were searched from eight databases. The systematic analysis of the 40 studies revealed that the level of employee well-being was generally high but not fixed – instead changes in mean levels over time were typical. In addition, the stability of well-being was found to be relatively low, as the explained variances were below 50%. Age and change of job were the major factors influencing stability: younger employees and job changers tended to display larger across time changes in well-being than older employees and job stayers, both at the mean level and in terms of their position relative to others. The findings of this review suggest that the indicators of employee affective well-being studied here (i.e. burnout, engagement, and job satisfaction) can meaningfully be applied in future research in measuring changes in employees’ well-being. In conclusion, based on the designs, methodologies, and main findings of the reviewed studies, seven avenues for future longitudinal research on employee well-being are proposed.