On the historicity of social ontology

The question I raise is whether the basic features of mind, social categories, and society are unchanging or changing. Some understandings of ontology would seem to suggest that social ontology is a branch of metaphysics. However, as the history of concepts such as metaphysical and ontology indicate, our concepts and knowledge are historical. It is widely held that society is concept- and activity-dependent. I examine critically two strands of social ontology in terms of their answers to this problematic: (1) John Searle’s theory of the construction of social reality and (2) critical realist theory of mind and society as interlaced emergent layers of reality. Apart from emergence in natural systems, there is also emergence beyond nature as consciousness, agency and society cannot be completely explained in terms of biological realities; but how and when did this emergence occur? We need an account of the emergent order of language, reflectively conscious mind, and institutions not only for its own sake, but also because the process whereby new objects and properties emerge may be on-going, path-dependent, diverse, and open-ended. The main argument is that the object of study of social theorists is geo-historically specific, liable to diversity within any given world-historical epoch, and open to further changes and new forms of emergence in the future.     

An Empirical Bayes Inference for the von Mises Distribution

This paper develops an empirical Bayesian analysis for the von Mises distribution, which is the most useful distribution for statistical inference of angular data. A two-stage informative prior is proposed, in which the hyperparameter is obtained from the data in one of the stages. This empirical or approximate Bayes inference is justified on the basis of maximum entropy, and it eliminates the modified Bessel functions. An example with real data and a realistic prior distribution for the regression coefficients is considered via a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm.     

The Merton Theorem Revisited and Restated: Conservatism and Fascism as Functional Analogues

The paper revisits and restates the Merton Theorem of American religious conservatism (Puritanism) and European fascism (Nazism) as functional analogues. The original formulation the Merton Theorem identifies and describes them as functional analogues in nativism or nationalism through exclusion of and aggression against non-native out-groups. The paper offers an extended restatement of the Merton Theorem in which American conservatism and European fascism function as functional analogues in that both represent the model of a closed, or the antithesis to an open, society, of which nativism is a special case. In the extended Merton Theorem they are functional analogues specifically in terms of such indicators or dimensions of a closed society as political absolutism, closure and oppression, religious absolutism and nihilism, moral absolutism and repression, and extremism.     

Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks

We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma‐ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work.     

Perceived Nuclear Risk, Organizational Commitment, and Appraisals of Management: A Study of Nuclear Power Plant Personnel

This study examined to what extent nuclear risk perceptions, organizational commitment (OC), and appraisals of management are associated with each other among nuclear power plant personnel. The sample consisted of 428 nuclear power plant workers who completed a questionnaire at their workplace. Perceived nuclear risk and OC were most closely related to the appraisals of the top management of the organization. As the trust in and satisfaction with the top management increased, perceived nuclear safety and acceptance of the organizational goals and values heightened. This result is discussed in the context of industrial safety management.     

Attaining specified reliability in component design: a stochastic approximation approach

In the design, manufacture and maintenance of components, particular attention is paid to component reliability R, the probability that the strength X of a component will exceed a stress Y to which it will be subjected. The problem addressed here is the design (or redesign) of a compoFent to meet a specified reliability R*. While certain characteristics of the random variables X and Y are assumed (symmetry of X about a unique median for example) it is not assumed that the form of the distribution of (X,Y) is known, nor that X and Y are independent. A design is recomnended based on a variation of the stochastic approximation procedure due to Dupac and Kral (1972) which in general estimates recursively the root of a regression curve assuming both independent and dependent regression variables are subject to experimental error.     

The impact of internal communication satisfaction dimensions on job satisfaction dimensions and the moderating role of LMX

This paper presents the results of the research on the predictive role of internal communication satisfaction dimensions on job satisfaction dimensions of middle managers from 131 companies in Serbia and the moderating influence of the leader member exchange relationship between middle managers and their supervisors (LMX) on that role. The research has shown that some internal communication satisfaction dimensions have statistically positive impact on job satisfaction dimensions and the moderating effect of LMX has also been noticed.     

‘This is just so unfair!’: A qualitative analysis of loss-induced emotions and tilting in on-line poker

Poker is a game of skill and chance, where players often experience significant monetary losses. Detrimental out-of-control poker decision-making due to negative emotions is known as tilting. A qualitative assessment of losing and tilting was conducted by analysing stories about significant monetary losses, written by Finnish on-line poker players (N = 60). Thematic and narrative analyses uncovered five themes and a narrative structure underlying the aetiology and phenomenology of tilting. Tilting, in the narratives, was often instigated by dissociative feelings (‘unreality’, disbelief) following a significant monetary loss. Thereafter, moral indignation was experienced, followed by chasing behaviour, in an attempt to restore a ‘fair balance’ between wins and losses. In the aftermath of tilting, self-focused feelings of disappointment, depression and/or anxiety, and sleeping problems were experienced. It was also observed that experienced players, as compared to inexperienced ones, exhibited in their narratives a more mature disposition towards encountering ‘bad luck’, and losing in general. The results are relevant in better understanding psychological processes related to losing in the multifaceted game of poker, thus contributing also to existing knowledge on detrimental gambling behaviour.