Non-linear state space modelling of fisheries biomass dynamics by using Metropolis-Hastings within-Gibbs sampling

State space modelling and Bayesian analysis are both active areas of applied research in fisheries stock assessment. Combining these two methodologies facilitates the fitting of state space models that may be non-linear and have non-normal errors, and hence it is particularly useful for modelling fisheries dynamics. Here, this approach is demonstrated by fitting a non-linear surplus production model to data on South Atlantic albacore tuna ( Thunnus alalunga ). The state space approach allows for random variability in both the data (the measurement of relative biomass) and in annual biomass dynamics of the tuna stock. Sampling from the joint posterior distribution of the unobservables was achieved by using Metropolis-Hastings within-Gibbs sampling.     

After the wave-the Centrelink Social Work response offshore

Communities worldwide were affected by the tsunamis that struck a dozen Indian Ocean nations on 26 December 2004. More than 300,000 people were killed or left missing as a result of the tragedy. The Australian Government played a key role in the disaster response overseas and in Australia. As part of a whole-of-government response to the crisis, eight Centrelink Social Workers were deployed to tsunami-affected areas for two weeks after the initial disaster to provide personal support to Australian victims and their families. This paper presents the service delivery framework adopted offshore and delineates the role undertaken by the social workers. Drawing on their practice experience, the paper examines some of the challenges, dilemmas, learnings and implications for future service delivery.     

SIMULATED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPLIED TO NON-GAUSSIAN AND NONLINEAR MIXED EFFECTS AND STATE–SPACE MODELS

The paper presents an overview of maximum likelihood estimation using simulated likelihood, including the use of antithetic variables and evaluation of the simulation error of the resulting estimates. It gives a general purpose implementation of simulated maximum likelihood and uses it to re‐visit four models that have previously appeared in the published literature: a state–space model for count data; a nested random effects model for binomial data; a nonlinear growth model with crossed random effects; and a crossed random effects model for binary salamander‐mating data. In the case of the last three examples, this appears to be the first time that maximum likelihood fits of these models have been presented.     

Do-It-Yourself Social Policy: Searching for a New Paradigm?

One of the most significant trends of recent decades has been the growing importance of do-it-yourself social policy: i.e. individuals constructing their own welfare mix both within the public sector and in private markets. This paper argues that this challenges the traditional top-down bias of social policy studies and requires a shift of focus within the discipline. The implications for normative theory, research strategy and policy analysis are explored. Some of the arguments for and against choice as a guiding principle are sketched out; some existing research on benefit take-up and choice in education and health is reviewed and the case for moving away from the economist's simple model of rationality is put forward. Finally, we argue, there should be more emphasis in social policy on developing a better understanding of the way in which individuals take their decisions, the context of public policy within which they act and the interaction between the two.     

Activation as a Common Framework for Social Policies towards Lone Parents

This article compares recent social policy reforms in respect of lone-parent families in three different national contexts: France, the Netherlands and the UK. In all three countries there is an increasing focus on activation policies to promote employment among lone parents. The authors examine whether this common framework of activation has led to a policy convergence across these three countries.     

Improving response to an establishment survey through the use of web-push data collection methods

ABSTRACT

The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The centralized strategy included the web-push design; a carefully timed contacts; and a three-month timeline. The results of the centralized web-push method included a higher overall response rate for a three-month period (81.0% compared to 56.6%) as well as greater consistency in results across states.     

The Effectiveness of Court Appointed Special Advocates to Assist in Permanency Planning

The effectiveness of permanency planning, which refers to efforts to move children through the court system in a timely and efficient manner, was analyzed by comparing outcome measures from a group of children having a court appointed special advocate (CASA) ordered and assigned to their case, and from a group of children who had no CASA assigned to their case. It was found that those cases having CASA involvement had significantly fewer placements, tended to be more likely to achieve permanency, and spent less overall time under wardship of the court.     

Lay explanations of and solutions to unemployment in Northern Ireland

Abstract

This study investigates the structure of and relationship between lay explanations of and solutions to unemployment in an area of high unemployment. A sample of 261 subjects resident in Northern Ireland rated the importance of 20 explanations of unemployment identified by Furnham (1982) and 20 solutions to unemployment identified by Heaven (1990). Factor analysis of their responses identified three explanatory factors, viz. individualistic, societal/managerial and fatalistic/uncontrollable Factor analysis of the 20 solutions identified three primary factors which were labelled punitive, opportunity creation, and resource management. The relative importance of both the explanation and the solution factors varied little with the demographic characteristics of the subjects. A correlation analysis showed that there was a clear and meaningful pattern in the relationship between explanations of and solutions to unemployment.     

But Is It Good for Non‐Urban Women's Health? Regionalizing Maternity Care Services in British Columbia*

La Colombie‐Britannique, comme la plupart des autres provinces ou territoires canadiens, s'est orientée au cours de la dernière décennie vers une régionalisation de ses services de santé. Il en a résulté un glissement dans la planification et la prestation de services du centre vers la périphérie et un accent plus important mis sur la prise de décision locale. Cette étude explore les effets de la régionalisation sur la planification et la prestation de soins en maternitéà l'extérieur des grands centres urbains en Colombie‐Britannique. L'article fait la lumière sur la perception qu'ont les futures mères des répercussions de la régionalisation et établit des comparaisons avec les attentes des artisans de réformes à l'endroit du processus mené par le gouvernement. British Columbia, like most other Canadian provinces and territories, has in the last decade moved towards regionalization of health care services. This process has resulted in a shift in service delivery and planning from the core to the periphery, and a greater emphasis on local control and decision making. This study explores the impact of regionalization on the planning and delivery of maternity care services outside of large metropolitan areas of B.C. The paper sheds light on how birthing women perceive the impact of regionalization and compares this information to reform makers' expectations about the government‐led process.