An operational framework for policy modeling in the social sciences

The apparent inability (or unwillingness) of social scientists to do policy relevant, applied research is discussed. One aspect of the problem is identified as a lack of an analytic framework designed specifically with policy research in mind. Such a framework is developed from a synthesis of the assumptions of: (1) what constitutes policy and the policy research process, and (2) what should be involved in social indicator research. The policy implications of sundry structural forms assumed by the general model are discussed.     

Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility

In a set of propositions on fertility transition, Peter McDonald recently proposed that the decline from replacement‐level fertility to low fertility is associated with a combination of high levels of gender equity in individual‐oriented institutions, such as education and market employment, and low levels of gender equity in the family and family‐oriented institutions. Similarly, the “second shift,” or the share of domestic work performed by formally employed women, forms a critical piece of current cross‐national explanations for low fertility. Building on this scholarship, the authors explore whether there is empirical evidence at the individual level for a relationship between gender equity at home, as indicated by the division of housework among working couples with one child, and the transition to a second birth. Results, based on a sample of US couples, indicate a U‐shaped relationship between gender equity and fertility. Both the most modern and the most traditional housework arrangements are positively associated with fertility. This empirical test elaborates the family‐fertility relationship and underscores the need to incorporate family context, including gender equity, into explanations for fertility change.     

Immigrant earnings: Language skills, linguistic concentrations and the business cycle

This study of the determinants of earnings among adult foreign-born men using the 1990 Census of Population focuses on the effects of the respondent's own English language skills, the effects of living in a linguistic concentration area, and the effects of the stage of the business cycle at entry into the U.S. labor market. The analysis demonstrates the importance of English language fluency among the foreign born from non-English speaking countries. There is also strong evidence for the complementarity between language skills and other forms of human capital. Furthermore, there is strong evidence using selectivity correction techniques for the endogeneity between language and earnings. Received: 30 November 1999/Accepted: 6 February 2001     

Consideration of future consequences and unprotected anal intercourse among men who have sex with men

This study of men who have sex with men (MSM) examined whether tendencies to consider the future consequences of one's actions were associated with sexual behaviors that place oneself at risk for HIV infection. A total of 339 HIV-negative MSM responded to the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFC; Strathman et al., 1994) and to questions about their anal intercourse practices in the past year. In bivariate analyses, men with a stronger future orientation were less likely to engage in anal intercourse unprotected by a condom (p < .05). Multivariate analyses revealed that CFC accounted for significant variance in three of four measures of unprotected anal sex after statistically controlling for demographic covariates (education, income, ethnicity, age). CFC was a better predictor of sexual behavior and accounted for more unique variance than any of the demographic factors. Additional research is needed to confirm that CFC is an antecedent of behavior and to examine the feasibility and efficacy of focusing on CFC in HIV prevention interventions.     

Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures

Official Medicare projections forecast that the elderly population will be less healthy and more costly over the next century. This prediction stems from the use of age as an indicator of health status: increases in longevity are assumed to increase demand for health care as individuals survive to older and higher-use ages. In this paper I suggest an alternative approach, in which time until death replaces age as the demographic indicator of health status. Increases in longevity are assumed to postpone the higher Medicare use and costs associated with the final decade of life. I contrast the two approaches, using mortality forecasts consistent with recent projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration. The time-until-death method yields significantly lower-cost forecasts. The hypothetical cost savings from improved health care small, however, relative to the size of the Medicare solvency problem caused by population aging.     

Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. In this study, we examine how contextual factors influence voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives using California's Propositions 187 and 227. We argue that spatial proximity to the border is associated with voting behavior on nativist initiatives. Methods. To examine the influence of environmental factors on Anglo voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives, we utilize California Field Polls, U.S. Census data, and spatially referenced data generated using GIS software. Results. The results indicate that spatial proximity to the border is an important component in individual‐level voting on nativist initiatives and that the impact of proximity to the border on the vote for Propositions 187 and 227 varies as a function of individual‐level partisan affiliation. Conclusions. These findings hold implications for future research regarding the influence of geospatial boundaries and political behavior.     

Gender and Science in Developing Areas: Has the Internet Reduced Inequality?*

Objective. This article examines the impact of the Internet on the research careers of female scientists in three developing areas: Ghana, Kenya, and Kerala, India. Most empirical studies of gender and science focus on the developed world, yet theoretical accounts emphasize more extreme differences in developing areas. Limited evidence from Africa and Asia shows gender inequity is restricted to a few key dimensions, broadly related to differences in human and social capital. Specifically, women are less likely to acquire an advanced degree and more likely to experience educational and organizational “localism.” Such localism is related to constraints on physical mobility that are widely expected to diminish with the introduction of the Internet. Methods. Using longitudinal data on 1,147 scientists in Ghana, Kenya, and south India, we examine gender differences in human and social capital by conducting a series of t tests and chi‐square tests. Results. We show that higher education and Internet access increased dramatically, but localism has not been reduced significantly and may be increasing. Conclusions. This finding casts doubt on the presumption that the removal of communication constraints will soon reduce career differentials resulting from the mobility constraints on women professionals.     

Comparative organization analysis: Sampling and measurement

This paper employs confirmatory factor analysis to evaluate the effects of using multiple indicators and heterogeneous samples in comparative organizational research. The results show that several indicators of different dimensions of organizational structure can be unified into a single measurement model and that theoretical constructs based upon these multiple indicators are applicable to a wide variety of organizational types. The findings imply that the development of a general theory of organizational structure need not be impeded by current sampling and measurement practices.