Emergency contraceptive pills: a 10-year follow-up survey of use and experiences at college health centers in the mid-Atlantic United States

The authors conducted a 10-year follow-up study using a telephone survey to investigate the availability of emergency contraceptive pills (ECPs) at college health centers in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. They also examined related issues, such as distribution procedure, existence of a written protocol, personnel involved, contraindications, follow-up procedures, methods of advertising, staff attitudes, changes in distribution over the past 10 years, and availability if ECPs become over-the-counter. Of the 119 completed responses, 58 schools (49%) reported distributing ECPs. The most common reasons schools listed for not distributing ECPs (n = 61, 51%) were religious convictions, understaffing, and lack of funding. Major changes in ECP distribution over the past 10 years related primarily to the number of schools distributing ECPs, protocol in ECP distribution, and advertising for ECP services.     

Locking the Wiener Process to its Level-Crossing Time

We consider the specific transformation of a Wiener process {X(t), t ≥ 0} in the presence of an absorbing barrier a that results when this process is “time-locked” with respect to its first passage time T _a through a criterion level a, and the evolution of X(t) is considered backwards (retrospectively) from T _a . Formally, we study the random variables defined by Y(t) ≡ X(T _a  ? t) and derive explicit results for their density and mean, and also for their asymptotic forms. We discuss how our results can aid interpretations of time series “response-locked” to their times of crossing a criterion level.     

Some Observations,a Suggestion,and Some Comments on the Conway-Roberts Article

This article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and applies them to a large-scale new Keynesian model. We approximate the DSGE model by a vector autoregression, and then systematically relax the implied cross-equation restrictions and document how the model fit changes. We also compare the DSGE model's impulse responses to structural shocks with those obtained after relaxing its restrictions. We find that the degree of misspecification in this large-scale DSGE model is no longer so large as to prevent its use in day-to-day policy analysis, yet is not small enough to be ignored.     

The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique

Doan, Litterman, and Sims (DLS) have suggested using conditional forecasts to do policy analysis with Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models. Their method seems to violate the Lucas critique, which implies that coefficients of a BVAR model will change when there is a change in policy rules. In this article, we attempt to determine whether the Lucas critique is important quantitatively in a BVAR macro model that we construct. We find evidence following two candidate policy rule changes of significant coefficient instability and of a deterioration in the performance of the DLS method.     

MDEWMA chart: an efficient and robust alternative to monitor process dispersion

Control chart is the most important statistical process control tool used to monitor changes in process location and dispersion. In this study, an EWMA control chart is proposed for efficient and robust monitoring of process dispersion. The proposed chart, namely the MDEWMA chart, is based on estimating the process standard deviation (σ) using the mean absolute deviations (MD), taken from the sample median. The performance of the proposed chart has been compared with the EWMASR chart (a dispersion EWMA chart based on sample range) and MD chart (a Shewhart-type dispersion chart based on MD), under the existence and violation of normality assumption. It has been observed that the proposed MDEWMA chart is more efficient and robust when compared with both EWMASR and MD charts in terms of run length (RL) characteristics such as average RL, median RL and standard deviation of the RL distribution.