Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures

Official Medicare projections forecast that the elderly population will be less healthy and more costly over the next century. This prediction stems from the use of age as an indicator of health status: increases in longevity are assumed to increase demand for health care as individuals survive to older and higher-use ages. In this paper I suggest an alternative approach, in which time until death replaces age as the demographic indicator of health status. Increases in longevity are assumed to postpone the higher Medicare use and costs associated with the final decade of life. I contrast the two approaches, using mortality forecasts consistent with recent projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration. The time-until-death method yields significantly lower-cost forecasts. The hypothetical cost savings from improved health care small, however, relative to the size of the Medicare solvency problem caused by population aging.     

Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. In this study, we examine how contextual factors influence voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives using California's Propositions 187 and 227. We argue that spatial proximity to the border is associated with voting behavior on nativist initiatives. Methods. To examine the influence of environmental factors on Anglo voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives, we utilize California Field Polls, U.S. Census data, and spatially referenced data generated using GIS software. Results. The results indicate that spatial proximity to the border is an important component in individual‐level voting on nativist initiatives and that the impact of proximity to the border on the vote for Propositions 187 and 227 varies as a function of individual‐level partisan affiliation. Conclusions. These findings hold implications for future research regarding the influence of geospatial boundaries and political behavior.     

Gender and Science in Developing Areas: Has the Internet Reduced Inequality?*

Objective. This article examines the impact of the Internet on the research careers of female scientists in three developing areas: Ghana, Kenya, and Kerala, India. Most empirical studies of gender and science focus on the developed world, yet theoretical accounts emphasize more extreme differences in developing areas. Limited evidence from Africa and Asia shows gender inequity is restricted to a few key dimensions, broadly related to differences in human and social capital. Specifically, women are less likely to acquire an advanced degree and more likely to experience educational and organizational “localism.” Such localism is related to constraints on physical mobility that are widely expected to diminish with the introduction of the Internet. Methods. Using longitudinal data on 1,147 scientists in Ghana, Kenya, and south India, we examine gender differences in human and social capital by conducting a series of t tests and chi‐square tests. Results. We show that higher education and Internet access increased dramatically, but localism has not been reduced significantly and may be increasing. Conclusions. This finding casts doubt on the presumption that the removal of communication constraints will soon reduce career differentials resulting from the mobility constraints on women professionals.     

Comparative organization analysis: Sampling and measurement

This paper employs confirmatory factor analysis to evaluate the effects of using multiple indicators and heterogeneous samples in comparative organizational research. The results show that several indicators of different dimensions of organizational structure can be unified into a single measurement model and that theoretical constructs based upon these multiple indicators are applicable to a wide variety of organizational types. The findings imply that the development of a general theory of organizational structure need not be impeded by current sampling and measurement practices.     

Considerations in determining the content of the 1970 census

This paper describes some of the factors that are being considered in planning the content of the 1970 Census. The key factor, is the conclusion by the top Bureau officials that the major needs for data in 1970 can be met by a schedule whose content is similar to that used in 1960. Although there will be some disagreement with this conclusion, it is based on a widespread sampling of opinion in which all interested parties were invited-indeed urged-to present their views.This framework places serious limitations on the opportunity to introduce innovations in schedule content. Since there appears to be no good reason-technical or otherwise-to drop items that were included in 1960, it is not likely that new items will be traded off for old ones. There also does not appear to be any good prospect that it will be possible for new items to be financed by savings in field procedures such as the mail-out mail-back approach. According to the best current estimates, this procedure may produce better coverage and a substantial capital improvement in the form of an address reqister; but it is not likely to result in any major savings in cost.The major innovation in the results produced by the 1970 Census will probably be in the greater availability of data for more small areas. It does not seem likely at present that there will be significant changes in content.     

SOME OF THE UNDERLYING SELECTION CRITERIA FOR MIDDLE MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN FINANCIAL POSITIONS: A FACTOR ANALYTIC STUDY

A sample of middle managers were asked to make ratings regarding the importance of thirteen variables they considered when making decisions to select candidates into the ranks of middle management. These thirteen selection variables were developed based on previous research on managerial selection by Edwin Miller and on research conducted at General Electric by another investigator. The set of decision variables was then subjected to factor analysis in an effort to recover the fundamental structure of the decision space used to select middle managers. The analysis yielded encouraging results due to the distinctness with which certain factors were indicated. Three fundamental decision criteria were suggested: (1) a leadership-administrative skills factor, (2) a technical competence factor, and (3) a capability-willingness to work factor. These three factors were discussed in terms of their relevance to previous research on managerial selection.     

EVALUATING THE TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN IDLING AND SHUTTING DOWN PRODUCTION LINES IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES

The costs of starting-up and shutting down production lines (and plants) in a process industry are often quite high. Therefore, when a plant's capacity significantly exceeds its forecast demand over an annual planning horizon, a manufacturer must either plan temporary production line shutdowns during the year, or plan to temporarily idle production lines without formally shutting line(s) down. The trade-offs between these two strategies can be complex. In this paper, we propose a methodology to evaluate the impact of both strategies on a plant's production costs by developing an analytical model based on the authors' experience with several process industries.     

Unpacking the circular economy: A problematizing review

Transitioning to a circular economy (CE) model has been proposed to solve many grand environmental challenges. While research on CE has been extensively reviewed, less is known about the implicit underlying assumptions of this work. Understanding these assumptions is critical as they typically go unchallenged yet play a significant role in shaping research fields. In this paper we conduct a problematizing review to critically analyse and make explicit the in-house, root metaphor and ideological assumptions that inform the framing of CE. Firstly, we demonstrate various in-house assumptions about CE, such as an emphasis on the business case for CE and the relationship between CE and corporate sustainability. Secondly, root metaphor assumptions include circularity and industrial relationships resembling biological metabolisms. Finally, the dominant ideological assumptions-neoliberalism and ecological modernization-guide scholarly thinking about growth, consumption and profit maximization. Based on our analysis and drawing on the ongoing CE debates within broader environmental studies, we suggest new agendas for future research. We contribute to the growing literature on CE in business, management and organization studies by identifying assumptions that may be misleading or limiting for future CE research, as well as to the conversations on grand challenges by discussing the implications of how challenges and solutions are framed.