中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?

1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降     

Marriage markets and nonmarital fertility in the United States

We merge census microdata with vital statistics data to examine the effect of women's marriage opportunities on nonmarital fertility rates and ratios across 75 U.S. metropolitan areas. Measures of the quantity and "quality" of marriageable men simultaneously specific for women's age, race, education, and place of residence reveal especially poor marriage prospects for highly educated black women. The effect of mate availability on nonmarital fertility is generally modest. Among white women, marriage opportunities are associated inversely with the nonmarital fertility rate, perhaps reflecting an increased likelihood that a premarital conception will be legitimated. Marriage opportunities also reduce nonmarital fertility ratios for young black and white women. The nonmarital fertility rate is lower among women whose marriage pool includes a large percentage of nonemployed males. Only a small proportion of the racial difference in nonmarital fertility appears attributable to differences in the marriage markets of black and of white women.     

Examining the need for cultural adaptations to an evidence-based parent training program targeting the prevention of child maltreatment

Evidence-based behavioral parent training programs (BPTs) have been recommended as a primary prevention strategy for child maltreatment, and use of BPTs is increasing. As these programs are implemented in new contexts and among new populations, the cultural relevance of these programs and need for adaptations or modifications must be considered. The purpose of this study was to assess the types of cultural adaptations that are being made to a widely implemented BPT, SafeCare, by providers working with families involved in the child welfare system, and to explore the need for more systematic adaptations. Eleven SafeCare providers, from six states, participated in individual, semi-structured interviews. Overall, the providers did not recommend systematic adaptations of the model for specific ethnic groups. However, they provided general and specific information regarding SafeCare components that require adaptation on a case-by-case basis, which is likely to be applicable to many BPTs. More research is needed to develop clear guidance about when and how to assess the need for cultural adaptations and how to institute adaptations that improve rather than weaken evidence-based programs. By sharing data and experiences, purveyors can contribute to the body of knowledge about adaptation.     

Does a Supplier's Operational Competence Translate into Financial Performance? An Empirical Analysis of Supplier–Customer Relationships

We conduct an empirical investigation of how a supplier's operational competence, as reflected by outcomes in the areas of quality, cost, delivery, flexibility, and new product development, translates into financial gains from a key customer. In contrast to previous research directed at the firm level, this study focuses on the supplier–customer relationship level. Using survey data from 158 suppliers in the manufacturing industry, we perform structural equation modeling to map out the paths from operational competence to financial performance—via dependencies and cooperative behaviors between suppliers and their customers. This study is the first scholarly attempt to examine the link between suppliers’ operational competencies and financial performance in interorganizational relationships. It is also an early investigation into operational competence as a source of bi‐lateral dependence. Our findings show that the supplier's operational competences increase its customer's dependence by enhancing the value of its products/services. However, the resulting increase in the supplier's power is not leveraged to shape relationship behaviors or capture value from its customer. In contrast, the customer's existing power as a major buyer plays an important role in shaping cooperative behaviors and affecting the supplier's financial performance from the customer relationship.     

Optimal Expediting Policies for a Serial Inventory System with Stochastic Lead Time

In recent supply chains, often operating multiple delivery modes such as standard freight shipping and air is an effective way of addressing both delivery lead time uncertainties and service rates. We propose a model on how to optimally operate multiple delivery modes. We consider a serial supply chain and an expediting option from intermediate installations to the downstream of the chain. The goods move stochastically among the installations and the system faces a stochastic demand. We identify systems that yield simple optimal policies, in which both regular ordering and expediting follow a variant of the base stock policy. Expediting allows the system to be leaner due to the reduced regular order amount. In addition, we provide managerial insights linking expediting, base stock levels, and expediting costs based on analytical and numerical results.     

Inter-organizational information systems visibility in buyer–supplier relationships: The case of telecommunication equipment component manufacturing industry

The concept and operation of supply chain (SC) visibility remain underexplored questions in supply chain management, as is the question of the facilitating role of inter-organizational information systems (IOIS) in achieving SC visibility. This paper seeks to elaborate on the novel concept of IOIS visibility and to explore the antecedents and consequences of IOIS visibility. Investigating SC cooperation from the perspectives of both partners (buyers and suppliers) is important, especially when channel partners depend on each other and when asymmetries in IOIS visibility can exist.     

Storytelling as a tool: A family-based intervention for newly resettled Syrian refugee children

The conflict in Syria has resulted in a humanitarian emergency and one of the largest refugee crises in history. The Canadian government has welcomed over 40,000 Syrian refugees. Stressors caused by instability, conflict, and the resettlement process put refugee children at high risk for mental health problems. Anxiety is a common problem experienced by refugee children. Thus, early intervention is crucial to promote their adequate adaptation and development. This study explores the impact and value of a culturally specific family-based storybook intervention for newly resettled Syrian refugee children. Six refugee families participated. Anxiety symptoms were measured before and after the intervention, and families shared their experiences, thoughts, and feedback regarding the intervention. The results showed a significant decrease in children's anxiety symptoms. Furthermore, qualitative analyses demonstrated that the intervention was culturally relevant to Syrian refugee families and that it was effective in promoting children's overall well-being, agency, and family connectedness.     

Migrant Interactions With Elderly Parents in Rural Cambodia and Thailand

This paper examines interactions between older adults living in rural areas of Thailand and Cambodia and their adult children. Thai data come from the Survey of the Welfare of the Elderly (N= 3,202 older adults and 17,517 adult children). Cambodia data are from the Survey of the Elderly in Cambodia (N= 777 older adults and 3,751 adult children). Results indicate that older adults in rural areas are not being abandoned, and supportive expressions such as visits and provision of material goods depend on living proximity, characteristics that relate to the needs and dependency of the older adult, and the life circumstances of adult children. These findings support an extension of an altruistic perspective that incorporates notions of vulnerability of older adults.