Bayesian and frequentist confidence intervals via adjusted likelihoods under prior specification on the interest parameter

Suppose a prior is specified only on the interest parameter and a posterior distribution, free from nuisance parameters, is considered on the basis of the profile likelihood or an adjusted version thereof. In this setup, we derive higher order asymptotic results on the construction of confidence intervals that have approximately correct posterior as well as frequentist coverage. Apart from meeting both Bayesian and frequentist objectives under prior specification on the interest parameter alone, these results allow a comparison with their counterpart arising when the nuisance parameters are known, and hence provide additional justification for the Cox and Reid adjustment from a Bayesian-cum-frequentist perspective, with regard to neutralization of unknown nuisance parameters.     

Adolescents' Daily Assistance to the Family in Response to Maternal Need

Although children's provision of family assistance is a common routine, little is understood about the day‐to‐day variability that may exist in children's assistance behaviors. Guided by a family systems framework, the current study examined whether Mexican American adolescents' provision of family assistance was contingent on daily maternal need. Adolescents (N = 354, 49% males, M_age = 14.96 years) and their mothers (M_age = 41.55 years) each completed reports on 14 consecutive days. The results indicated that adolescents generally responded to maternal need, being more likely to help their families on days when their mothers worked or felt fatigued. This daily contingency was modified by family and adolescent characteristics, with adolescents thought to generally engage in low levels of assistance (i.e., youngest males and those in families with little economic strain) increasing their help when their mothers were fatigued. In contrast, daily maternal work did not appear to stimulate greater assistance among families with low levels of economic strain.     

The Effectiveness of Educational Programs to Improve Recognition and Reporting of Elder Abuse and Neglect: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Health professionals often lack adequate protocols or knowledge to detect, manage, and prevent elder maltreatment. This systematic review describes and evaluates existing literature on the effectiveness of educational interventions to improve health professionals' recognition and reporting of elder abuse and neglect. Fourteen articles described 22 programs ranging from brief didactics to experiential learning and targeted a variety of health and social service audiences. Most evaluations were limited to satisfaction measures. These programs may result in increased awareness, collaboration, and improved case finding. However, using the published literature to guide new program planning is constrained by lack of details and limited evaluations.     

Health Professionals' Responses to Disclosure of Child Sexual Abuse History: Female Child Sexual Abuse Survivors' Experiences

This study reports on a postal questionnaire, conducted in 2004, with female survivors of historic child sexual abuse. The questionnaire explored their experiences of health professionals' responsiveness to disclosure of child sexual abuse history. Of 61 participants, aged between 22 and 65, 69% had disclosed to health professionals. Those who had not disclosed reported that they would have liked to but were not asked about child sexual abuse. Thirty-five percent of participants suggested routine questioning about child sexual abuse. Most participants related a fear of common medical examination procedures to their experience of child sexual abuse, and 64% said this stopped them from attending regular health checks. The current study suggests the development of guidelines for dealing with possible child sexual abuse survivors would be useful for health professionals.     

Activities, engagement, and emotion in after-school programs (and elsewhere)

Experiences that are deeply engaging and enjoyable, engender full concentration, and present a balance between challenge and skill promote children's development. This chapter describes a study that sought to identify the kinds of settings and activities that foster engagement and, by extension, positive youth development. The after-school experiences of 191 ethnically diverse youth living in three states, some of whom participated in after-school programs and some of whom did not, were studied. Youth were equipped with logbooks and watches that were programmed to signal at random times. When signaled, youth recorded their location, social partners, activity, and feelings. The study found pervasive differences in the experiences at programs and elsewhere. Youth spent more time in academic and arts enrichment, organized sports and physical activities, community service, and homework at programs versus elsewhere, and they spent less time eating and watching TV at programs. They also reported higher levels of motivation, engagement, and positive affect at programs. At the same time, there were few differences in activities, emotions, effort, or motivation of program participants and nonparticipants when both groups were elsewhere. The similarities in these experiences while elsewhere suggest that the program context, not differences in youth characteristics or interests, was responsible for the feelings of engagement that were reported at programs.     

SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGE AND HOMICIDE IN A TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY

Durkheim argued that rapid social change would produce anomic conditions which, in turn, would lead to increases in criminal and deviant behavior. Russia provides a unique opportunity to test this theory given the large-scale fundamental socioeconomic changes occurring in the nation. Russian homicide rates more than doubled in the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and are now among the highest in the world. The pace and effects of the socioeconomic transition vary widely throughout Russia, however, as do rates of and changes in violent crime. In this study, we took advantage of the unique natural experiment of the collapse of the Soviet Union to examine the association between socioeconomic change and homicide. We measured the negative effects of socioeconomic change by creating an index of changes in population size, unemployment, privatization, and foreign investment. Using data from Russian regions (n = 78) and controlling for other structural covariates, regression results indicated that regions that more strongly experienced the negative effects of socioeconomic change were regions where homicide rates increased the most between 1991 and 2000. Further analysis of the individual components of this index revealed that regions with greater increases in (1) unemployment experienced greater increases in homicide rates and (2) privatization experienced smaller increases in homicide rates.     

Impaired Probability Estimation and Decision-Making in Pathological Gambling Poker Players

Poker has gained tremendous popularity in recent years, increasing the risk for some individuals to develop pathological gambling. Here, we investigated cognitive biases in a computerized two-player poker task against a fictive opponent, among 12 pathological gambling poker players (PGP), 10 experienced poker players (ExP), and 11 inexperienced poker players (InP). Players were compared on probability estimation and decision-making with the hypothesis that ExP would have significantly lower cognitive biases than PGP and InP, and that the groups could be differentiated based on their cognitive bias styles. The results showed that ExP had a significantly lower average error margin in probability estimation than PGP and InP, and that PGP played hands with lower winning probability than ExP. Binomial logistic regression showed perfect differentiation (100%) between ExP and PGP, and 90.5% classification accuracy between ExP and InP. Multinomial logistic regression showed an overall classification accuracy of 23 out of 33 (69.7%) between the three groups. The classification accuracy of ExP was higher than that of PGP and InP due to the similarities in probability estimation and decision-making between PGP and InP. These impairments in probability estimation and decision-making of PGP may have implications for assessment and treatment of cognitive biases in pathological gambling poker players.     

中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?

1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降