Ein empirischer Validit?tsvergleich zwischen Adaptive Self-Explicated Approach (ASE), Pairwise Comparison-based Preference Measurement (PCPM) und Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA)

The increasing complexity of many products makes high demands on methods used for measuring consumer preferences. In such cases, practitioners frequently use Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA). However, compositional approaches also proved to be efficient. Recently, Srinivasan and Netzer (2011) suggested a promising compositional technique called the Adaptive Self-Explicated Approach (ASE), which significantly outperformed ACA regarding its predictive validity. Another advantageous approach, called Pairwise Comparison-based Preference Measurement (PCPM), was introduced by Scholz et al. (2010). This paper contrasts the popular ACA with these two new compositional approaches and discusses the validity results of an empirical study in the leisure industry. For two out of three criteria PCPM partly leads to a significantly higher predictive validity and a halving of the survey time. As products and services become more complex, multi-attribute preference meas urement techniques have to cope with a large number of attributes. Particularly Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA) and compositional approaches are often applied to complex products. Two new alternative compositional approaches have been recently proposed, the Adaptive Self-Explicated Approach (ASE, Srinivasan und Netzer 2011) as well as Pairwise Comparison-based Preference Measurement (PCPM, Scholz et al. 2010). In first empirical applications, the authors found that the predictive validity of ASE and PCPM was significantly higher than that of ACA. In an empirical study involving theme parks, we compare ASE and PCPM as well as the benchmark ACA with respect to several criteria of validity. We find that the predictive validity is significantly higher for the PCPM with respect to two (out of three) criteria. Moreover, the PCPM survey was about half the length of the ACA survey.     

Can Marriage Reduce Risky Health Behavior for African-Americans?

This paper estimates whether marriage can improve health outcomes for African-Americans through changes in risky health behaviors like smoking, drinking, and drug use. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study on Adolescent Health and propensity score matching methodology to account for the potential selection bias, the results show that marriage does lead to a reduction in risky health behaviors, specifically drinking and drug use. This question has important policy implications because if marriage has the same benefits for African-Americans as it does for the general population, social welfare programs can be re-evaluated to incorporate marriage promotion, and further support can be given to programs that decrease adverse health behaviors.     

Translating family-focused prevention science into public health impact

Underage drinking is a pervasive problem in the United States, with serious consequences for youth, families, communities, and society as a whole. Family-focused preventive interventions for children and adolescents have shown potential for reducing underage drinking and other problem behaviors. Research findings indicate that clear advances have been made, in terms of both the number of evidence-based interventions available, and in the quality of the methods used to evaluate them. To fully reap the benefits of such preventive interventions and achieve public health impact, the findings of family-focused preventive intervention science must be translated into real-world, community practices. This type of translation can be enhanced through four sets of translational impact factors-effectiveness of interventions, extensiveness of their population coverage, efficiency of interventions, and engagement of eligible populations, with sustained quality intervention implementation. Findings from studies conducted by researchers at the Partnerships in Prevention Science Institute and other empirical work highlight the importance of these factors. A model for community- university partnerships has been developed that potentially can facilitate the dissemination and public health impact of universal interventions to prevent underage drinking and other problem behaviors. This model fits well within a comprehensive strategic framework for promoting effective prevention.     

Fighting in the legal grey area: an analysis of the German Federal Court of Justice decision in case preimplantation genetic diagnosis

According to the German Embryo Protection Act, PGD has been banned in Germany since 1990; one reason is the legislature’s avoiding to insert a revision clause regarding medical advance into the law. The ruling of the German Federal Court of Justice of July 2010 shows the problems resulting out of this approach and declares PGD to be permitted in certain cases. The article discusses the necessity for, as well as the problems of, an interdisciplinary dialogue in the field of reproductive medicine.     

Verbindliche und unverbindliche Grundschulempfehlungen und soziale Ungleichheiten am ersten Bildungs��bergang

While the influence of numerous individual and family characteristics on social disparities in educational achievement is examined in several studies, the relevance of institutional conditions on the attainment of different social groups is comparatively unclear. The present study adds to this debate and analyses the effect of mandatory and non-mandatory teacher recommendations on social disparities in educational participation after primary school. This is done by using unique data from North Rhine-Westphalia, where the degree of obligation of the teacher recommendation varied in terms of a natural experiment. Two transition cohorts are considered, one before and one after the change of a non-mandatory to a mandatory setting of the teacher recommendation in 2006. The results reveal that a mandatory teacher recommendation reduces the influence of social origin on the transition from primary to secondary school. This effect is especially apparent when families choose between the medium and the highest track in the German educational system, the Realschule and the Gymnasium.     

On Development,Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course.This paper is a personal assessment of what is occurring with respect to the subject of global warming and climate change. Nevertheless it is an attempt to examine the topic objectively. The paper tries to concentrate on the essentials—from both the social and the environmental sciences—and, quite deliberately, it presents basic data on the subject for the reader's own consideration. The paper's subtitle is taken from a television program broadcast in January 2005 as part of UK Channel Four's War on Terra season. I thank Tim Forsyth, Chris Wilson, and especially Brian O'Neill for their help and advice. However, and most certainly, the usual disclaimer applies.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

The role of income in marriage and divorce transitions among young Americans

The paper investigates the importance of income in young Americans decisions to form and dissolve households. Using data on young American men and women from the NLSY, an important role for income in both these transitions is found. There are significant differences between young men and women. High earnings capacity increases the probability of marriage and decreases the probability of divorce for young men. High earnings capacity decreases the probability of marriage for young women, and has no impact on divorce.Thanks are due to seminar audiences at Bristol and the Royal Economic Society, two anonymous referees and the Editor for useful comments, and to Matt Dickson for preparation of the tables. Any errors are those of the authors. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

The Role of Housing Space in Determining Freedom and Flourishing in Older People

This paper takes as its central thesis Martha Nussbaum’s normative proposition that social arrangements should be evaluated primarily according to the extent of freedom people have to promote or achieve functionings they value. Using this as a lens the paper explores the housing circumstances of older people in the UK. The paper makes three points. Firstly, given that people use their homes to structure and manage their lives, the design, quality and standard of their home is therefore a critical factor in determining their “doings and beings” [Sen: 1992, Inequality Re-examined (Clarendon Press, Oxford) p. 40]. Since older people are more likely to spend greater time within the home through lower income, lessening mobility or loss of companions, this may be of greater significance to them than other age groups. Secondly the paper argues that the design of “specialist” dwellings for older people where there is a shifting balance between housing and care has played a part in shaping the thinking about the position and status of older people as well as providing a material context in which older people live [Laws: 1994, Environment and Planning A 26: pp. 1787–1802]. This paper suggests that this context may alter or deny many aspects of life that may be meaningful to individuals and therefore may inhibit rather than promote human flourishing. The paper draws mainly on a small qualitative study in which older people spoke of their home and its meaning. Quotations from this work are given in italics.