Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide-Tolerant Oilseed Crops

One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems.     

European River Floods in a Changing World

Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains.     

What is society? Social thought and the arts of government

Following conservative politicians, neoliberal philosophers and radical critics, different strands of social science, including those using Foucault's governmentality approach, joined the questioning of the salience of 'society' and ideas of 'the social' over the last decades. When the social reappeared, it was often in the moral domains of community and civil society. This argument re-evaluates the contribution of Foucauldian histories, or 'genealogies', of the social to these fundamental questions. Drawing upon them, it attends to their arguments concerning the place of social thought on the modern episteme in relation to economics, the emergence of the idea of 'society' with the modern arts of government of the state, and the formation of the 'social question'. The argument here allows that preconditions of formation of 'society' lie in the legal and political techniques of the territorial sovereign state. However, the literature under investigation indicates the implicit normativity of an idea of 'society' as a 'problematic unity' and the enduring necessity of a social domain in a law-governed state with a relatively independent economic sphere. This discussion thus seeks to contribute to the wider revaluation and redeployment of these terms in today's context.     

Same-sex domestic partnerships and lower-risk behaviors for STDs, including HIV infection

To determine the association between domestic partnership status and risk behaviors for sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection, we analyzed data from a population-based interviewer-administered telephone survey of 2,881 gay men in San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Chicago conducted in November 1996 to February 1998. Men in domestic partnerships had a statistically significantly lower prevalence of multiple partnerships, "one-night stands," and unprotected anal intercourse with a non-primary partner than either men with steady partners not identified as domestic partners or men without a steady partner. These findings were independent of age. Men in domestic partnerships had decreased risk behaviors for sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection, suggesting but not proving, that conferring legal status to same-sex unions might decrease sexual risk behavior.     

Attempted suicide among transgender persons: The influence of gender-based discrimination and victimization

To determine the independent predictors of attempted suicide among transgender persons we interviewed 392 male-to-female (MTF) and 123 female-to-male (FTM) individuals. Participants were recruited through targeted sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and agency referrals in San Francisco. The prevalence of attempted suicide was 32% (95% CI = 28% to 36%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis younger age (<25 years), depression, a history of substance abuse treatment, a history of forced sex, gender-based discrimination, and gender-based victimization were independently associated with attempted suicide. Suicide prevention interventions for transgender persons are urgently needed, particularly for young people. Medical, mental health, and social service providers should address depression, substance abuse, and forced sex in an attempt to reduce suicidal behaviors among transgender persons. In addition, increasing societal acceptance of the transgender community and decreasing gender-based prejudice may help prevent suicide in this highly stigmatized population.     

“No One Acknowledged My Loss and Hurt”: Non-death Loss,Grief, and Trauma in Foster Care

How do youth in foster care experience non-death loss? Drawing upon the theories of ambiguous loss, symbolic loss, and disenfranchised grief, this applied theoretical article integrates research findings to address how youth experience loss, grief, and trauma in foster care. Youth’s reports illustrate experiences of non-death loss, the impact of non-death loss on psychological and emotional well-being, and how non-death losses are disenfranchised and enfranchised within the foster care system. Recommendations are made that child welfare agencies consider how their practices and policies can be enhanced to meet the needs of grieving youth in foster care.