Analysis in support of strategic policy making

Policy making involves choice between alternatives in situations that are usually very complex. The process of choice in such situations is not such that a straightforward analytical procedure can be prescribed yielding a uniquely rational solution. However, decision problems arising in policy making situations can be investigated using methods based on recent developments in game and metagame theory. This methodology can form the basis of a rational decision structure of the type envisaged by Diesing that can be incorporated in the day-to-day work of most organizations.     

Risk-Based Zoning for Toxic-Gas Pipelines

Implicit in the operation of a toxic-gas pipeline is the possibility of an accidental release, which could have serious consequences if upwind of a nearby populated area. Concern for public safety leads to the establishment of isolation corridors or buffer zones to reduce and control the hazard to human settlements. Although "worst case" or "average case" are often used in the determination of safe distances, a probabilistic approach (risk analysis) is superior because it identifies important factors, it makes maximum use of available data, it allows comparison of alternatives, and it quantifies intuitive risk considerations. To illustrate the method, a risk model developed for sour gas pipelines in the Province of Alberta, Canada is outlined and an actual risk-distance curve is presented. The current zoning regulations in Alberta are summarized.     

Paradoxes in Aboriginal Welfare

Welfare is frequently seen as simply a question of providing aid to needy. In formulating welfare policy, however, the issue is not as clear cut, because with every handout comes a consequent loss to the dignity of the recipient. In this paper three such key paradoxes which confront the administrator, social worker or community agent operating in the field of Aboriginal welfare are discussed.     

Site-Specific Updating and Aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network Models for Multiple Experts

A method for combining multiple expert opinions that are encoded in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is presented and applied to a problem involving the cleanup of hazardous chemicals at a site with contaminated groundwater. The method uses Bayes Rule to update each expert model with the observed evidence, then uses it again to compute posterior probability weights for each model. The weights reflect the consistency of each model with the observed evidence, allowing the aggregate model to be tailored to the particular conditions observed in the site-specific application of the risk model. The Bayesian update is easy to implement, since the likelihood for the set of evidence (observations for selected nodes of the BBN model) is readily computed by sequential execution of the BBN model. The method is demonstrated using a simple pedagogical example and subsequently applied to a groundwater contamination problem using an expert-knowledge BBN model. The BBN model in this application predicts the probability that reductive dechlorination of the contaminant trichlorethene (TCE) is occurring at a site--a critical step in the demonstration of the feasibility of monitored natural attenuation for site cleanup--given information on 14 measurable antecedent and descendant conditions. The predictions for the BBN models for 21 experts are weighted and aggregated using examples of hypothetical and actual site data. The method allows more weight for those expert models that are more reflective of the site conditions, and is shown to yield an aggregate prediction that differs from that of simple model averaging in a potentially significant manner.     

Technology‐Based Communication and the Development of Interpersonal Competencies Within Adolescent Romantic Relationships: A Preliminary Investigation

This study investigated longitudinal associations between adolescents’ technology‐based communication and the development of interpersonal competencies within romantic relationships. A school‐based sample of 487 adolescents (58% girls; M_age = 14.1) participated at two time points, one year apart. Participants reported (1) proportions of daily communication with romantic partners via traditional modes (in person, on the phone) versus technological modes (text messaging, social networking sites) and (2) competence in the romantic relationship skill domains of negative assertion and conflict management. Results of cross‐lagged panel models indicated that adolescents who engaged in greater proportions of technology‐based communication with romantic partners reported lower levels of interpersonal competencies one year later, but not vice versa; associations were particularly strong for boys.     

Quirky kids: fathers’ stories of embracing diversity and dismantling expectations for normative play with their children with autism spectrum disorder

Abstract

Anchored in critical disability studies, we used a narrative methodology to study fathers’ stories of play interactions with their children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Three narratives convey how father–child interactions unfold and how patterns of interaction respond to, redefine and resist societal norms. Narratives of action demonstrate fathers’ responses to societal norms, while narratives of adjustment depict how fathers have redefined expectations of their children in the context of play. Narratives of acceptance demonstrate fathers’ attunement to, and acceptance of, their children’s preferred play interests and a resistance to play norms. We argue that fathers’ stories represent a step towards emancipating play for children with ASD in that fathers’ appreciation of their children’s quirky play accentuates the relational and social capabilities of children, thus countering deficit interpretations of the abilities of children with autism more broadly.     

Public Policy toward Employee Benefits in the United States,Canada and Taiwan:Lessons for European Integration

Abstract. Most governments intervene in the labor market to promote the provision of certain merit goods such as retirement income and health insurance. As economic integration has progressed within the European Community, questions have arisen concerning the harmonization of such benefits. Using case studies from three non-EC countries—the US., Canada, and Taiwan—the authors show that benefit structures and decisions reflect institutions which are difficult to change and whose patterns do not seem to reflect a simple economic determinism. The U.S. and Canada, two similar countries with integrated product markets, have adopted very different health insurance policies, but similar pension policies. Taiwan, despite its different stage of development, has a Canadian-style health insurance system and is currently grappling with how to arrange its pensions. A key outcome of the benefit-decision process is whether entitlements are external to the firm or contingent on maintaining a specific job attachment. An important factor in modifying benefit arrangements is the degree of social concertation present in national political systems. Benefits systems are best designed or reformed when institutions permit discussion of macro pressures. EC countries, now considering harmonization of economic institutions, have the opportunity to modernize their benefit arrangements. A related paper was presented to the Ninth World Congress of the International Industrial Relations Associations and its associated Study Group on Economic Policy and Social Concertation, Sydney, Australia, August 30-September 4, 1992.