A MACRO SOCIAL ANALYSIS OF CHANGE IN POLICE FORCE SIZE, 1972–1982

Recently, Liska, Lawrence, and Benson (1981) and Greenberg, Kessler, and Loftin (1985) have examined the effects of static measures of social and economic characteristics of cities on changes in police force size. In brief, they report that these measures have small and inconsistent effects on changes in police force size during the previous three decades. This study extends this research by examining the influence of static and dynamic measures of social structure on the change in police force size among cities during the 1970s. The results indicate that three dynamic measures of social structure significantly affect change in police size and thereby support the contention that the failure to control for processes of change may have led to specification bias in previous attempts to model changes in police size.     

Perception of Risk and Credibility at Toxic Sites

This study integrates previous research methodologies to compare the risk perceptions and responses to risk messages of agency personnel and neighbors of Superfund sites in Michigan. The integration attempted and the focus on risk messages are shaped by a critical review of the social amplification conceptual framework. The study involved all four agency groups and three groups of site neighbors actively involved in Superfund planning across the state. The first part of the study utilized the psychometric techniques of hazard rating and hazard profiles that had not previously been used in studies involving stakeholders. While agency personnel responded similarly to experts in previous studies, the responses of individuals in the neighbor groups reflected experience with toxic sites and were dissimilar to previous ratings by the general public. The second part of the study consisted of a hypothetical toxic site scenario that focused on specific risk messages at different times in the site history. Results indicate that the difference in perception of risk occurs after the first testing at a site, and that dramatic differences arise between agency and resident groups regarding the credibility of information sources and the need for independent testing. A general lack of trust in the Superfund program was demonstrated by all groups. The results indicate that problems of institutional credibility and program adequacy cannot be addressed by better risk communication.     

Bayesian Methods for Model Uncertainty Analysis with Application to Future Sea Level Rise

This paper addresses the use of data for identifying and characterizing uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. The Bayesian Monte Carlo method is formally presented and elaborated, and applied to the analysis of the uncertainty in a predictive model for global mean sea level change. The method uses observations of output variables, made with an assumed error structure, to determine a posterior distribution of model outputs. This is used to derive a posterior distribution for the model parameters. Results demonstrate the resolution of the uncertainty that is obtained as a result of the Bayesian analysis and also indicate the key contributors to the uncertainty in the sea level rise model. While the technique is illustrated with a simple, preliminary model, the analysis provides an iterative framework for model refinement. The methodology developed in this paper provides a mechanism for the incorporation of ongoing data collection and research in decision-making for problems involving uncertain environmental change.     

Effects of immigration on selected health risk behaviors of Black college students

The authors administered the National College Health Risk Behavior Survey to 1,219 college students who were attending a historically Black college located in New York City. They assessed the US-born Black students and Black students who emigrated to the United States for differences in risky sexual behaviors, risky dietary behaviors, and physical inactivity. They used bivariate and multiple regression analyses to analyze the data and observed significant differences between the US-born and non-US-born students in the behavioral domains of risky sexual behaviors (p = .003), risky dietary behaviors (p = .001), and physical inactivity (p = .010). They conclude that immigration is associated with health protective behavior in the domains of sexual behavior and physical activity among the Black college students attending this particular institution. However, in the domain of dietary intake, immigration status was associated with increased risk in these Black college students.     

The Impact of Self-advocacy on Families

The impact of self-advocacy on families of people with learning difficulties has rarely been instigated. A participatory research project is currently studying this question. This paper argues that adulthood is central. The meanings attached to self-advocacy by people with learning difficulties are examined to support this, and the family context explored to discover the likely experiences and influences which will condition the reception for self-advocacy. The early findings of the research-from discussions with self-advocacy groups-are presented. We should expect self-advocacy to impact on families and for this impact to exhibit itself in a variety of ways, but because of the experiences and conditioning of families, and of people with learning difficulties, the impact will be complicated. It is this real experience of self-advocacy and families which the research is investigating.