Timing and Sequence of Events: HIV Status Disclosure,Condomless Anal Sex,and Sexual Agreement Formation Among Same-Sex Male Couples

Despite the implications for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and sexual health, little is known about the timing and chronological order of when same-sex male couples disclose their HIV serostatus, establish a sexual agreement, and first engage in condomless anal sex (CAS) in their relationships. Dyadic data from 357 dyads were used to describe when these respective events occurred; whether members of a couple concurred about when the events happened; and the chronological order of these events. For many, disclosure and CAS happened within the first month, whereas an agreement tended to occur much later (if at all). Couples’ concordance of when disclosure and agreement formation happened differed by their serostatus, whereas there was little difference by serostatus for CAS. The chronological order of these events revealed interesting patterns and varied substantially. Although two-thirds of partners reported disclosure had occurred first, some reported events happening on the same day. These findings reveal that the first few months in a same-sex male couple’s relationship is a critical time period for when information and decisions about sexual health occur. Suggestions are provided for how current and future HIV prevention efforts could assist couples with their sexual health needs.     

Young Adult Migration from a Northern Plains Indian Reservation: Who Stays and Who Leaves

We evaluated how ambitions, community ties, monetary sufficiency, employment, and alcohol consumption related to whether young American Indian adults had moved from their Northern Plains reservation. Of 518 Northern Plains reservation residents in 1993, we located 472 in 2003–2005 and found that 89 lived more than a four-hour drive from the reservation. Coding the 472 as to whether they had stayed on/near the reservation or moved away, we ran logistic regressions on data they reported in 1996 to determine which demographic and attitudinal variables were associated with having moved. We found ambitions and goals were more associated with moving away than were ties to the community, which in turn were more related than monetary and personal characteristics that promote independence and prosperity. The more importance they placed on getting a good education or carrying on the tribe’s traditions, the more likely they were to have moved away. We found too that the odds of moving away decreased with greater alcohol consumption. Tribal council members and college administrators therefore may wish to promote policies that increase opportunities for young adults to achieve higher education goals while remaining on reservation to carry on tribal traditions. Benefits may also come from encouraging and assisting reservation members studying off-reservation to return after completing their education. These findings would argue too for greater investment in alcohol services for reservation-dwelling populations.     

Cumulative Risk for Early Sexual Initiation Among American Indian Youth: A Discrete‐Time Survival Analysis

Approximately 3 million teens are diagnosed with a sexually transmitted disease (STD) annually; STDs rates for American Indian young adults are among the highest of any racial/ethnic group. An important risk factor for STDs is early initiation of sex. In this study, we examined risk for early initiation with 474 American Indian youth ages 14–18, using 11 risk factors from three developmentally important microsystems (family, school, peers) along with several individual characteristics; a cumulative risk index was also calculated. Discrete‐time survival analyses showed that predictors of early initiation differed by gender. For young men, younger initiation of sex was predicted by lower grades, liking school less, having peers with less prosocial attitudes, a greater likelihood of having used alcohol or drugs at first sex, and having higher sensation‐seeking. For young women, earlier initiation was related to having mothers who had their first child at an early age and who had less formal education, to having parents who had divorced, dropping out of high school, using alcohol/drugs at first sex, and higher sensation‐seeking. Higher cumulative risk was associated with elevated risk of sexual initiation, although the degree of added risk varied with age for women. Cumulative risk deserves broader attention in understanding the early initiation of sexual intercourse.     

On the presidential campaign trail: Apologia of association

During the 2008 presidential primary campaign, the supporters of Senators Clinton, McCain, and Obama made a number of controversial public statements. After these remarks became public and a focus of media attention, the candidates and their surrogates/supporters engaged in what we term apologia of association. This study examines this previously unexplored apologetic form.     

R2 Bounds for Predictive Models: What Univariate Properties Tell us About Multivariate Predictability

ABSTRACT

A long-standing puzzle in macroeconomic forecasting has been that a wide variety of multivariate models have struggled to out-predict univariate models consistently. We seek an explanation for this puzzle in terms of population properties. We derive bounds for the predictive R² of the true, but unknown, multivariate model from univariate ARMA parameters alone. These bounds can be quite tight, implying little forecasting gain even if we knew the true multivariate model. We illustrate using CPI inflation data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Economic view of CIM system architecture

The synergistic advantage of systems integration for Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) has been a powerful thrust behind the productivity advancement in recent decades. However, the dependency among components, the intangible benefits and complexity of the system have been a barrier for system developers and the business community. This paper reports a systematic approach to assess economic merits of the CIM system. It projects CIM system designs on a multiple layer architecture with consideration of project life cycle. It introduces a modelling formalism to present a structured view of the economic aspect of the CIM system. The multiple criteria's aspect of CIM justification was treated with the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) method. The complexity of various cost factors is reduced through application of the ABC (Activity Based Costing) method. The benefits of low level activities, both tangible and intangible, are then hierarchically aggregated into higher level system objectives. It also provides the necessary linkages between the economic and other views. A simple example was used to illustrate the approach.     

Deconstructing place identity? Impacts of a “Racino” on Elora,Ontario, Canada

The heritage-scape is a socially constructed place that provides locally crafted products, cuisine, and experiences to satisfy consumers’ desire for authenticity. In this paper we question if the introduction of a functionally non-conforming structure causes an existing heritage-based place identity to dismantle (i.e. deconstruct). In 2003, a pari-mutuel racetrack and gaming parlour (a “racino”) was introduced to the historic village of Elora, Ontario, Canada. Through content analysis we unravel (i.e. deconstruct) the social processes that lay behind this development. We find that this profit-oriented venue was widely contested by preservation-minded residents, who expressed concern that this structure would compromise Elora’s heritage image. Our survey finds, however, that the majority of visitors believe that the Grand River Raceway and Slots has not impacted Elora’s existing place-based identity. Key informants further reveal that image management, spatial placement and visual coherence are largely responsible for its maintenance. We conclude that a heritage-based place identity may be retained, and even enhanced, in the presence of a hegemonic discourse that is underlain by a long-standing preservationist ideology.     

Organisational buying behaviour in changing times

In a recent paper, Johnston and Lewin (1996) analyse the stream of research on organisational buyer behaviour published over the past 25 to 30 years isolating eight propositions which they encapsulate in their ‘Risk Continuum'. Our paper, reports a comparison between Johnston and Lewin's analysis of the extant literature and current buying practices as revealed by interviews with senior UK buyers. We found that business practice has changed in the intervening years. New, process-driven management styles are changing the way in which UK buyers and suppliers interact, yet work reflecting this change (by, for instance, the European based IMP Group) is under-represented in textbooks and teaching. We question the continuing predominance of the established risk management view of organisational buyer behaviour based upon research conducted in the USA 30 years ago.