Poverty Reduction and Growth Interactions: What Can Be Learned from the Syrian Experience?

The aim of this article is to analyse in depth the interactions of growth and poverty in Syria, which undertook reforms to reduce the government's involvement in the economy. During the 1996–2004 period, growth was pro‐poor in ‘weak absolute’ terms but not in either relative or ‘strong absolute’ terms, owing to the increase in inequality. This can be explained partly by tax policies, but also by an unequal distribution of investment at the regional level. There was also a widening of the gap between urban and rural areas, mainly owing to a pattern of growth in which oil played an increasing role and agriculture a decreasing one. Agricultural and land‐policy reforms could have had a negative impact on poverty, despite their positive effect on productivity.     

Moving Up the Savings Hierarchy: Examining Savings Motives of Older Malay Muslim

Continuation ratio analysis of data from the 2004 Economic and Financial Aspects of Aging in Malaysia was conducted to assess likelihood of Malay Muslims aged 55–75 moving up in a hierarchical model of savings motives. Results indicate that more than half of older Malay Muslim has no savings. Many are barely surviving economically. Family size, educational level, health perception, income quintiles and income adequacy were important predictors of advancing from a lower level to a higher level in the savings motive hierarchy. Saving for Hajj was an important self-actualization savings motive.     

A new test of discordancy in cylindrical data

ABSTRACT

Cylindrical data are bivariate data from the combination of circular and linear variables. However, up to now no work has been done on the detection of outlier in cylindrical data. We introduce a definition of outlier for cylindrical data and present a new test of discordancy to detect outlier in this type of data, based on the k-nearest neighbor’s distance. Cut-off points of the new test statistic based on the Johnson-Wehrly distribution are calculated and its performance is examined using simulation. A practical example is presented using wind speed and wind direction data obtained from the Malaysian Meteorological Department.     

Estimation of p(y<x) in the burr case: a comparative study

This paper provides a simulation study which compares three estimators for R = P(Y<X) when Y and X are two independent but not identically distributed Burr random variables. These estimators are the minimum variance unbiased, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators. Moreover, the sensitivity of Bayes estimator to the prior parameters is considered.     

Simple computation of a bivariate normal integral arising from a problem of misclassification with applications to the diagnosis of hypertension

The joint distribution of the true and observed values of a variable that is subject to measurement error is bivariate normal.An important special case occurs when we want the joint probability of the true value being below a cutoff point and the observed value above it.In that case the required integral can be simply evaluated using a Gaussian quadrature formula, which can easily be evaluated using a calculator.This formula is used to estimate the probabilities of misclassification of participants in screening programs for hypertension.It shows that basing a diagnosis on a single visit, at which a single measurement was made leads to a very high risk of misclassification.The probability of a subject having a blood pressure below the cutoff point, given that the observed pressure is above it, would be 0.45.Increasing the number of visits to three, and measuring the blood pressure twice at each visit, as advocated by Rosner and Polk (1979), would bring the probability down to 0.29.     

Statistics for a New Test of Discordance in Circular Data

This article considers the derivation of approximate distributions for two types of statistics that can be used in developing new tests of discordance in circular samples from the von Mises distribution. An alternative test of discordance is proposed based on the circular distance between sample points. The advantage of the test is that it allows users to detect possible outliers in both univariate and bivariate circular data. For illustration, the test is applied to two real circular data sets.     

Public policies promoting the informal sector: Effects on incomes,employment and growth in Burkina Faso

Since the 1990s, Burkina Faso has intensified the implementation of supporting policies to enhance the access to capital and liquidity in the informal sector. This paper analyzes the effects of these public policies on incomes, employment and economic growth by taking into account the interactions between the informal sector, the formal sector and the agricultural sector. For that purpose, policy shocks are simulated through the Partnership for Economic Policy Network's static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which is adapted to the structure of a 2008-based social accounting matrix developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute. Our results highlight mixed effects including a paradoxical contraction of the informal sector, the formal sector and economic growth as well as an improvement of the informal households and the farmers’ incomes.