Estimates of trade-related adjustment costs in Syria

The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscore the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in the domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in the proposed EU-Syria Association Agreement, and border tax-related changes affecting the domestic import regime. We find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario are likely to be low if an appropriate stepwise implementation of the agreement can be ensured; our analysis of the second scenario suggests that all border taxes can be eliminated, and the number of tariff bands reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, if a VAT of a reasonable size is introduced.     

From Narcissistic Exploitativeness to Bullying Behavior: The Mediating Role of Approval‐of‐aggression Beliefs

This study examined the role of approval‐of‐aggression beliefs in the relationship between narcissistic exploitativeness and bullying behavior in an Asian sample (N = 809) comprising elementary children and middle school adolescents. Narcissistic exploitativeness was significantly and positively associated with both bullying behavior and approval‐of‐aggression beliefs, and approval‐of‐aggression beliefs was significantly and positively associated with bullying behavior. Additionally, findings indicated that approval‐of‐aggression beliefs was a statistically significant mediator and 53 percent of the total effect of narcissistic exploitativeness on bullying behavior was mediated by approval‐of‐aggression beliefs. Approval‐of‐aggression beliefs did not moderate the association between narcissistic exploitativeness and bullying behavior. There are important theoretical implications as well as implications for prevention and intervention efforts targeting aggressive, bullying behavior among children and adolescents.     

A GEE approach to estimating accuracy and its confidence intervals for correlated data

In this paper, we provide a method for constructing confidence interval for accuracy in correlated observations, where one sample of patients is being rated by two or more diagnostic tests. Confidence intervals for other measures of diagnostic tests, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, have already been developed for clustered or correlated observations using the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method. Here, we use the GEE and delta‐method to construct confidence intervals for accuracy, the proportion of patients who are correctly classified. Simulation results verify that the estimated confidence intervals exhibit consistent/appropriate coverage rates.     

Experiences of trafficked and sexually exploited boys transitioning from shelter programmes into the community: Findings from a longitudinal study

This article explores the perspectives of Cambodian boys who have experienced human trafficking and sexual exploitation on their experiences transitioning out of shelters and re‐entering the community. We used an interpretive phenomenological approach to analyse 81 interviews and narrative summaries of interviews drawn from Chab Dai's 10‐year longitudinal study with survivors in Cambodia (n = 22). Themes included: minimal involvement in planning for re/integration; conflicted feelings about life in the community; challenges completing school and securing employment; importance of community‐based services; unfulfilled expectations; violence in the community; and a desire to return to the shelter.     

Urban E-Government Initiatives and Environmental Decision Performance in Korea

Although e-government initiatives have been credited as enginesof government reform, empirical evidence is insufficient todetermine their effects on public sector performance. To explorethe impact of e-government on local governance, this articleexamines how e-government initiatives influence the perceivedperformance of environmental decision making in an urban contextand what organizational and contextual factors affect Web-aideddecision performance. Data were collected from the content analysisof city government Web sites and a nationwide survey of cityofficials in Korea. Findings from path analysis show that (1)information technology leadership of senior management and Website quality are key to decision intelligence, quality, andspeed and (2) e-government Web divide, a gap in the capabilityof city Web sites to support public service delivery and democraticinteraction, translates into disparities in environmental decisionperformance across cities. Additionally, environmental activismis a significant factor shaping the impact of e-government onenvironmental decision making. E-government initiatives contributeto local governance performance, but their impacts vary, dependingon Web site quality and the entrepreneurial leadership of publicmanagers.     

A Model for Measuring Supplier Risk: Do Operational Capability Indicators Enhance the Prediction Accuracy of Supplier Risk?

The purpose of this study was to develop a supplier risk assessment model for buyers to estimate supplier risk. It is one of the few empirical studies that considers both operational capability indicators and financial indicators; a standard logit model with five key variables (switching cost, operating profit margin, asset turnover ratio, quality capability and technological capability) was suggested as a practical tool. This model not only enhanced the accuracy of supplier risk assessment, but also served as a core element of a new supply chain management tool, ‘supplier management at risk’. More practically, the model enables purchasing firms to assess supplier risk and take proactive measures against the estimated risk.     

Order test for high-dimensional two-sample means

We propose a new method to test the order between two high-dimensional mean curves. The new statistic extends the approach of Follmann (1996) to high-dimensional data by adapting the strategy of Bai and Saranadasa (1996). The proposed procedure is an alternative to the non-negative basis matrix factorization (NBMF) based test of Lee et al. (2008) for the same hypothesis, but it is much easier to implement. We derive the asymptotic mean and variance of the proposed test statistic under the null hypothesis of equal mean curves. Based on theoretical results, we put forward a permutation procedure to approximate the null distribution of the new test statistic. We compare the power of the proposed test with that of the NBMF-based test via simulations. We illustrate the approach by an application to tidal volume traces.     

DPR Debate: Growth Identification and Facilitation: The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change

This DPR Debate is based on the contribution by Justin Lin, Chief Economist at the World Bank, and his colleague Célestin Monga, on ‘Growth Identification and Facilitation: The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change’. The article under consideration is important and timely as it articulates a number of new policy implications from Justin Lin's earlier work on New Structural Economics, which was discussed in a previous DPR debate (Lin and Chang, 2009). This symposium contains the article and comments on it from five distinguished specialists, and closes with a rejoinder by Lin and Monga. This introduction discusses the article, the comments and the rejoinder. The historical record indicates that, in all successful economies, the state has always played an important role in facilitating structural change and helping the private sector sustain it across time. This article puts forward a new approach to help policy‐makers in developing countries identify those industries that may hold latent comparative advantage, and recommends ways of removing binding constraints to facilitate private firms' entry into those industries. Two types of government interventions are distinguished: first, policies that facilitate structural change by overcoming information, co‐ordination and externality issues, which are intrinsic to industrial upgrading and diversification; and second, policies aimed at protecting certain selected firms and industries that defy the comparative advantage determined by the existing endowment structure.     

Scheduling of raw-material unloading from ships at a steelworks

Formulating a schedule for unloading raw material from ships at the seaport of a steelworks is a difficult task. Even in its simplest possible form, finding an optimum solution for the problem is nondeterministic polynomial time (NP)-hard. The problem at a steelworks gets more complicated due to several factors, such as the difference in capacities of unloading equipment, the requirement of keeping ships balanced and the dynamic nature of berthing eligibility of each ship, as governed by the weight of the remaining payload. Moreover, the raw material must be transported through a network of belt conveyor units to designated storage yards while being discharged from ships. The combinatorial nature of this belt conveyor operation is analysed in this article. A heuristic approach to the raw-material unloading problem is proposed and its effectiveness was tested with real-world examples.     

Testing for climate warming in Sweden during 1850-1999, using wavelets analysis

This paper describes an alternative approach for testing for the existence of trend among time series. The test method has been constructed using wavelet analysis which has the ability of decomposing a time series into low frequencies (trend) and high-frequency (noise) components. Under the normality assumption, the test is distributed as F. However, using generated empirical critical values, the properties of the test statistic have been investigated under different conditions and different types of wavelet. The Harr wavelet has shown to exhibit the highest power among the other wavelet types.

The methodology here has been applied to real temperature data in Sweden for the period 1850-1999. The results indicate a significant increasing trend which agrees with the 'global warming' hypothesis during the last 100 years.