Accommodating Uncertainty in Comparative Risk

Comparative risk projects can provide broad policy guidance but they rarely have adequate scientific foundations to support precise risk rankings. Many extant projects report rankings anyway, with limited attention to uncertainty. Stochastic uncertainty, structural uncertainty, and ignorance are types of incertitude that afflict risk comparisons. The recently completed New Jersey Comparative Risk Project was innovative in trying to acknowledge and accommodate some historically ignored uncertainties in a substantive manner. This article examines the methods used and lessons learned from the New Jersey project. Monte Carlo techniques were used to characterize stochastic uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis helped to manage structural uncertainty. A deliberative process and a sorting technique helped manage ignorance. Key findings are that stochastic rankings can be calculated but they reveal such an alarming degree of imprecision that the rankings are no longer useful, whereas sorting techniques are helpful in spite of uncertainty. A deliberative process is helpful to counter analytical overreaching.     

Traces of Norwegian influence in the development of social services in Minnesota, USA, 1890–1920

This article explores areas where Norwegian Americans contributed to the burgeoning social welfare system being established in Minnesota from 1890 to 1920. The array of services developed was due in part to the belief among native-born Americans that immigrant groups should establish their own helping networks and care for themselves. The Lutheran Church played a central part in this development by initiating and sponsoring new undertakings. Issues discussed during this period are found to be still central among both immigrant groups and 'natives' today. Concerns regarding mother tongue, religion, integration in schools and use of existing welfare systems continue to stir up 'natives' and 'settlers' alike.     

ESTIMATING THE STOCK‐FLOW MATCHING MODEL USING MICRO DATA

We estimate the stock‐flow matching model using micro‐level data from a well‐defined labor market. Using a dataset of complete labor‐market histories for both sides of the market, we estimate hazard functions for job‐seekers and vacancies. We find that the stock of new vacancies has a significant positive impact on the job‐seeker hazard, over and above that of the total stock of vacancies. There is an even stronger robust result for vacancy hazards. Thus we find evidence in favor of stock‐flow matching, even when controlling for unobserved search heterogeneity and stratifying into submarkets defined by location and occupation.     

Stability and change in levels and structure of subjective well-being: USA 1972 and 1988

It has long been recognized that more needs to be known about the dynamic behavior of measures of subjective well-being. As the Social Indicators Movement matures, it becomes possible to explore issues of stability and change in measures of perceived life quality. To contribute to this research need, this paper reports results of administering similar measures of subjective well-being to several representative samples of the adult American population assessed 16 years apart — in 1972 and in 1988. Results show that in the United States, which has experienced reasonably continuous economic prosperity and no major social disruptions during these 16 years, thestructure of the subjective well-being measures (i.e. how they relate to one another and how concern-level measures predict global-level measures) has remained remarkably constant. This is in accord with expectation and enhances confidence in the validity and usefulness of the measures. Changes were found in thelevels of some of the measures: For the total population, feelings about life-as-a-whole, oneself, and one's own health became notably more positive; evaluations of own income and the national government also gained; but assessments of one's own family life, social relationships, community, and job remained fairly stable. Some of these gross changes were general throughout the population, but others occurred only for certain age, racial, or socioeconomic groups. Younger cohorts and people with higher educations and incomes showed more gains in subjective well-being than other groups.     

Population issues and social indicators of well-being

Relating demographers' measures of various population characteristics (size, growth/decline, density, age/sex structures, migration, et cetera) to measures of well-being recently developed within the social indicators movement promises to provide new knowledge about the linkage of population and well-being that can enhance decision making about important population issues. A conceptual schema is presented that suggests specific relationships to examine at various levels of aggregation, that helps to classify research already done in this area, and that helps to identify "holes" in the knowledge base. Some special methodological features of research in this area suggest considerable time and care will be required to produce dependable new knowledge. These include: (a) the inherent multilevel nature of the relationships (involving properties of individuals and collectivities); (b) the slow rate at which population characteristics change; (c) the absence of much good well-being data from the past; and (d) the limited nature of the collectivities for which population data are available.     

25 Years On: The State and Continuing Development of LGBTQ Studies Programs

ABSTRACT

This article serves as the introduction to “25 Years On: The State and Continuing Development of LGBTQ Studies Programs.” It begins by placing the current issue in a commemorative context: marking the anniversary of a 1993 special issue of the Journal of Homosexuality dedicated to the emergence of “Gay and Lesbian Studies” and edited by Howard L. Minton. The introduction continues by providing an overview of early phases of academic transformations, primarily in the United States, with notes on particular legacies. This is followed by a brief survey of scholarship published since 1993 that pays particular attention to curricular and pedagogical concerns. It concludes by identifying themes articulated by the essays selected for this issue as well as commentary on their individual, yet richly interrelated, contributions.     

Sharing Parental Leave Among Dual-Earner Couples in Canada: Does Reserved Paternity Leave Make a Difference?

Population Research and Policy Review - In 2006, Quebec became the first Canadian province to offer non-transferable paternity leave to fathers. The availability of this five-week leave...     

Passing the Trash: Absence of State Laws Allows for Continued Sexual Abuse of K–12 Students by School Employees

ABSTRACT

“Passing the trash,” enabling teachers who sexually abuse students to pursue another job with no record of their sexual misconduct, is common practice for K–12 school district administrators who fear legal liability and tarnished reputations. The “Prohibition on Aiding and Abetting Sexual Abuse” provision in the United States Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) of 2015 aims to eliminate passing the trash. This study explores states’ progress toward developing and implementing relevant law and policy to comply with the provision. Researchers collected data from representatives of state departments of education, asking whether representatives were aware of the provision and what progress their state had made toward complying with it. Overall, researchers found that just four states had fully complied; several others were in the process of creating relevant policy and legislation and a few began the process in response to researchers’ queries. However, the overwhelming majority of states—39—had no plans to create relevant legislation or policy, either because they were unaware of the provision or because they believed, erroneously, that existing laws fulfilled the ESSA mandate. Passing the trash is clearly an unacceptable practice, yet research suggests it still occurs, and state-level laws and policies to prevent it are slow to emerge. The lack of knowledge or awareness exhibited by many state representatives suggests a need to educate policymakers and education leaders about what aiding and abetting sexual offenders consists of, what consequences it can have for vulnerable students, and what provisions states can enact to prohibit it.