A Flexible Bayesian Model for Estimating Subnational Mortality

Reliable subnational mortality estimates are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations among which the stochastic variation in death counts is relatively high, and thus the underlying mortality levels are unclear. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mortality at the subnational level. The model builds on characteristic age patterns in mortality curves, which are constructed using principal components from a set of reference mortality curves. Information on mortality rates are pooled across geographic space and are smoothed over time. Testing of the model shows reasonable estimates and uncertainty levels when it is applied both to simulated data that mimic U.S. counties and to real data for French départements. The model estimates have direct applications to the study of subregional health patterns and disparities.     

Social processes among mothers in centres for children and parents in three countries

Professionally run centres have been created in a number of countries over the past few decades to provide a place for parents and their young children to meet. They provide children with play opportunities and social contacts with peers, but they are also intended to tackle the potential negative consequences of mother–child isolation in modern societies by providing mothers with some social support. Many mothers find their participation in the centres to be supportive. This study uses ethnographic observations of mothers′ social experience in centres in France, Italy and Japan with the aim of better understanding the potential beneficial effects of attending the centres. Beyond organizational and cultural differences in the centres across countries, this joint analysis of observations highlighted important similarities in the social processes occurring among mothers in the centres and supported the hypothesis that positive social experiences are the basic potential source of psychological benefits that the centres provide to mothers.     

Assessing the value of family safety networks in child protective services: Early findings from Minnesota

The considerable number of families served continues to place systemic challenges on the child welfare system. Jurisdictions are turning to new strategies to increase family engagement in services and to leverage taxed or limited resources. Signs of Safety® is a strengths‐based and safety‐focused approach to child protection work that is grounded in partnership and collaboration. This exploratory pilot study with a referred participant sample used interviews with 26 parents and 32 safety network members to explore respondents' perceptions and use of a safety plan and safety network, core components of the Signs of Safety framework. Findings from this pilot investigation include insights about how safety plans and safety networks are established, how they function, and opportunities for enhancing their use with families with the goal of providing supports that increase the likelihood of continued safety for children after case closure. Preliminary results also suggest these tools may contribute to reduced re‐reports to child protection.     

A Study of Individual‐Level Social Capital and Health Outcomes: Testing for Variance between Rural and Urban Respondents

This study examines associations between social capital and health outcomes with data from the 2010 Brazos Valley Health Survey (Texas) (N = 3,176). Multivariate adjusted logistic regression analysis demonstrated that poor and fair health status was inversely predicted by both high trust (adjusted OR = .67 [CI = .50–.92]) and high informal social ties (adjusted OR = .68 [CI = .49–.94]), as well as being predicted by the interaction of urban‐rural and community participation (adjusted OR = 1.20 [CI = 1.02–1.40]). Mental distress was inversely predicted by high trust (adjusted OR = .51 [CI = .29–.89]) and the interaction of urban/rural and informal social ties (adjusted OR = .77 [CI = .61–.97]). Thus, whereas social capital poses general benefits in regard to improving health status and mental distress, the former benefits are greater for rural respondents, while the latter benefits are greater for urban respondents.     

The Problem of Pseudoscience in Social Work Continuing Education

The National Association of Social Workers requires social workers to obtain continuing education (CE) after they receive their social work degrees. A large and profitable industry that has emerged catering to this need for CE that is particularly focused on the needs of licensed social workers. Quality control mechanisms in place to monitor the content and delivery of CE approved by the field of social work is relatively lax, and as a result a considerable number of social work CE programs convey content that can be labeled as pseudoscientific. We provide illustrations of currently approved social work CE courses that provide training in a variety of bizarre and unsupported assessment methods and treatments that are pseudoscientific.     

Differences in the prevalence of risk behaviors between heterosexual and lesbian,gay, bisexual,and questioning (LGBQ) female adolescents in the juvenile justice system

Little is known about the behavioral risk factors for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among female youths who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or questioning (LGBQ) and who are involved in the juvenile justice system. We examined the sexual and drug use risk profiles of heterosexual and LGBQ female adolescents in the justice system. Greater prevalence of alcohol and substance use was found among female LGBQ adolescents compared to their female heterosexual counterparts. Conversely, female LGBQ youths reported more consistent condom use for both vaginal and anal sex compared to heterosexual females. These data may be useful in tailoring interventions for justice-involved LGBQ youths.     

Urban bird conservation: presenting stakeholder-specific arguments for the development of bird-friendly cities

Following the call from the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity “Cities & Biodiversity Outlook” project to better preserve urban biodiversity, this paper presents stakeholder-specific statements for bird conservation in city environments. Based upon the current urban bird literature we focus upon habitat fragmentation, limited habitat availability, lack of the native vegetation and vegetation structure as the most important challenges facing bird conservation in cities. We follow with an overview of the stakeholders in cities, and identify six main groups having the greatest potential to improve bird survival in cities: i) urban planners, urban designers and (landscape) architects, ii) urban developers and engineers, iii) homeowners and tenants, iv) companies and industries, v) landscaping and gardening firms, vi) education professionals. Given that motivation to act positively for urban birds is linked to stakeholder-specific advice, we present ten statements for bird-friendly cities that are guided by an action perspective and argument for each stakeholder group. We conclude with a discussion on how the use of stakeholder-specific arguments can enhance and rapidly advance urban bird conservation action.     

Couple‐Level Economic and Career Concerns and Intimate Partner Violence in Young Adulthood

Family scholars have demonstrated that economic conditions influence marital quality and relationship instability. Similarly, researchers have identified low income and poverty as important risk factors for intimate partner violence (IPV). Yet limited work has examined how economic factors influence the use of violence in the romantic context, particularly during young adulthood. Using the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (n = 928), the authors examined the influence of economic and career concerns as specific sources of conflict on IPV among a sample of young adults. Findings suggest that these areas of disagreement within romantic relationships are associated with IPV risk, net of traditional predictors. The implications of our findings for intervention and prevention efforts are discussed.     

Kernel density estimation on the torus

Kernel density estimation for multivariate, circular data has been formulated only when the sample space is the sphere, but theory for the torus would also be useful. For data lying on a d-dimensional torus (d?1), we discuss kernel estimation of a density, its mixed partial derivatives, and their squared functionals. We introduce a specific class of product kernels whose order is suitably defined in such a way to obtain L₂-risk formulas whose structure can be compared to their Euclidean counterparts. Our kernels are based on circular densities; however, we also discuss smaller bias estimation involving negative kernels which are functions of circular densities. Practical rules for selecting the smoothing degree, based on cross-validation, bootstrap and plug-in ideas are derived. Moreover, we provide specific results on the use of kernels based on the von Mises density. Finally, real-data examples and simulation studies illustrate the findings.     

对西部大开发战略内涵的再认识:一个非线性观点

采用非线性观点,对西部大开发战略的内涵进行再探讨,并在此基础上提出了推进西部大开发战略的实施应着重处理好五个方面的关系。