On the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts: evidence from South African survey data

We study the information content of South African inflation survey data by determining the directional accuracy of both short-term and long-term forecasts. We use relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, which have been applied in a variety of fields including weather forecasting and radiology, to ascertain the directional accuracy of the forecasts. A ROC curve summarizes the directional accuracy of forecasts by comparing the rate of true signals (sensitivity) with the rate of false signals (one minus specifity). A ROC curve goes beyond market-timing tests widely studied in earlier research as this comparison is carried out for many alternative values of a decision criterion that discriminates between signals (of a rising inflation rate) and nonsignals (of an unchanged or a falling inflation rate). We find consistent evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.     

Evidence-based exposure criteria for work-related musculoskeletal disorders as a tool to assess physical job demands

Despite worldwide attention, musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) remain a substantial concern at work. To support ergonomists to assess the work-related risk factors for MSDs, several instruments are available. Unfortunately, many of these instruments are not supported by evidence-based exposure criteria for particular MSDs. For effective prevention of MSDs, it is important to know to what extent work-related risk factors are present in the work situation. The Netherlands Center for Occupational Diseases (NCOD) develops evidence-based criteria documents for the assessment of work-related MSDs. The exposure criteria of these documents can be used on a group level to support ergonomists in their assessment of the physical job demands that are associated with work-related MSDs. At the moment the NCOD has exposure criteria for the assessment of 22 work-related MSDs, for instance on the work-relatedness of upper extremity disorders, non-specific low back pain or patellar tendinopathy. The use of these exposure criteria enables ergonomist to better assess the work-related risks of MSDs as a starting point for effective prevention.     

Entwicklung und Validierung eines Fragebogens zum Technikbezogenen Selbstkonzept (TSK): Eine gendersensitive Studie

In Germany, just like in most western industrialized countries, the workforce is still highly horizontally as well as vertically segregated: Women generally hold only a small proportion of managerial positions; engineering and computing can still be considered as male domains. In this article we present thetechnology-related self-concept as a new theoretical approach to analyze and understand technology-related attitudes, emotions, and behaviors, especially regarding vocational development. We developed and validated a standardized questionnaire to measure the technology-related self-concept in a differentiated, yet economical manner. To this end, we conducted a comprehensive qualitative (N?=?35) and quantitative (N ₁?=?916;N ₂?=?1142) study. Results show that the questionnaire possesses good psychometric properties. The reliability coefficients are good. The structure of the questionnaire, as postulated by the theoretical model, could be confirmed by means of confirmatory factor analysis. Correlation and regression analyses showed substantial relations with career success as external criterion. Furthermore, gender differences already known from related work were replicated in our study. Thus, construct and criterion validity can be considered satisfactory.     

Causes De Mortalité Parmi Les Adolescents Et Jeunes Adultes Dans Les Pays De La Communauté Européenne Et Évolution De 1960 À 1980

The sharp change in level characterizing adolescent mortality is analyzed using statistics from the various countries of the European Community. Causes of death for age groups 10–14, 15–19 and 20–24 are analyzed by sex for the Community as a whole and for each country separately. Trends over the period 1960–1980 are also analyzed. The marked increase in mortality rates between ages 10 and 20 is explained by the growing importance of traffic accidents. In some countries, however, traffic mortality has declined. Suicide levels though have increased everywhere.     

The social contract

The online version of the original article can be found at     

The Charged Economic Environment: Its Role in Parental Psychological Distress and Development of Children,Adolescents, and Young Adults

The current downward economic spiral has manifested in increased joblessness, unemployment, and new faces in the landscape of American poverty. More Americans are living in poverty, and vulnerable populations are experiencing psychological distress and despair. This paper addresses the psychological impact of the ongoing economic impasse. There is a call for policymakers, and practitioners to collaborate in facilitating youth and families to develop support strategies (of support) for sustaining them through these challenging times. Case examples illustrate how the economy impacts children and families. Relational/cultural theories and the life course perspective are used to understand the impact of the economy on vulnerable populations.     

Using emotion in risk communication: The Anger Activism Model

Risk communication scholars, as well as public relations scholars and practitioners, are interested in the factors that strengthen the link between people's attitudes and their behavioral intentions. The focus of this paper is to present the Anger Activism Model. Levels of anger and efficacy can be used to formulate four distinct groups; and, these groups will predict differences in behaviors. Distinct predictions can be made about each group. The activist group feels strong anger, and strong perceptions of efficacy; they are marked by very positive attitudes regarding the topic and a willingness to engage in higher commitment behaviors. The empowered group will experience low levels of anger, and strong perceptions of efficacy. These people feel that something can be done to “fix” the issue, but they do not perceive the issue to be large. Angry audiences are distinguished by strong feelings of anger, and weak feelings of efficacy. Although the angry group have positive attitudes about the topic, they will be unlikely to intend to engage in behaviors given that they do not feel that the behaviors will facilitate change. Finally, the disinterested group is marked by weak feelings of anger and weak perceptions of efficacy. They are distinguished by having positive attitudes about the topic, but, these attitudes will not translate into behaviors. Data supporting this model is presented.