A DIAGNOSTIC ROUTINE FOR THE DETECTION OF CONSEQUENTIAL HETEROGENEITY OF CAUSAL EFFECTS

Least squares regression estimates of causal effects are conditional-variance-weighted estimates of individual-level causal effects. In this paper, we extract from the literature on counterfactual causality a simple nine-step routine to determine whether or not the implicit weighting of regression has generated a misleading estimate of the average causal effect. The diagnostic routine is presented along with a detailed and original demonstration, using data from the 2002 and 2004 waves of the Education Longitudinal Study, for a contested but important causal effect in educational research: the effect of Catholic schooling, in comparison to public schooling, on the achievement of high school students in the United States.     

RUNAWAYS: JURISDICTION, DYNAMICS, AND TREATMENT

New research indicates more clearly than ever that running away from home is indeed a family affair. Understood as such, the implications for society's jurisdictional response and for effective treatment planning are deep and far-reaching. The "status offender" legal jurisdiction over runaways needs to be changed and new alternatives for dealing with runaways and their families developed. The planning and implementation of these alternatives need to be informed with the perspectives of a family therapeutic approach sensitive to the intergenerational forces of loyalty, legacy, and trust operating within families.     

Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States

We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are "catching up" on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.     

Public perceptions of the ideal number of children for contemporary families

Demographic and family dynamics have been influenced by the recent downturn in average family size. This research examines perceptions of the ideal size for contemporary families and beliefs regarding factors which have contributed to families' decisions to have fewer children. Findings reveal that the two child family is the overwhelming standard chosen by respondents, and that this preference holds for virtually all demographic categories. Three of five reasons offered for smaller families today (expense of children, wives working and better birth control) were viewed as important by over 85% of those sampled.A previous version of this paper was presented at the annual meetings of the Southern Demographic Group, Austin, Texas, October, 1985. Support for computer analyses was provided by the Office of Computer and Information Services, University of Maryland Baltimore County.     

Household structure and the tempo of family formation in comparative perspective

Summary Previous research on the relationship between extended family residence and fertility has produced conflicting findings. In the present paper, we avoid a major shortcoming of past work by focusing on residence and fertility at a given stage of the life-cycle, i.e. the stage following first marriage. Results show that residence with husband's parents reduces age at marriage. Residence with wife's parents shows no such consistent effect. No evidence was found to support the claim that extended family residence consistently affects the length of the interval between marriage and the first birth. These findings are consistent across four cultural/ethnic groups.