Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States

We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are "catching up" on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.     

Public perceptions of the ideal number of children for contemporary families

Demographic and family dynamics have been influenced by the recent downturn in average family size. This research examines perceptions of the ideal size for contemporary families and beliefs regarding factors which have contributed to families' decisions to have fewer children. Findings reveal that the two child family is the overwhelming standard chosen by respondents, and that this preference holds for virtually all demographic categories. Three of five reasons offered for smaller families today (expense of children, wives working and better birth control) were viewed as important by over 85% of those sampled.A previous version of this paper was presented at the annual meetings of the Southern Demographic Group, Austin, Texas, October, 1985. Support for computer analyses was provided by the Office of Computer and Information Services, University of Maryland Baltimore County.     

Household structure and the tempo of family formation in comparative perspective

Summary Previous research on the relationship between extended family residence and fertility has produced conflicting findings. In the present paper, we avoid a major shortcoming of past work by focusing on residence and fertility at a given stage of the life-cycle, i.e. the stage following first marriage. Results show that residence with husband's parents reduces age at marriage. Residence with wife's parents shows no such consistent effect. No evidence was found to support the claim that extended family residence consistently affects the length of the interval between marriage and the first birth. These findings are consistent across four cultural/ethnic groups.     

A note on the time spent on the journey to work

The notions that most people travel to the center of the city to work and that the farther out they live the longer it takes are only appropriate for middle-sized cities. In larger urban areas, many people work outside the center, and it is the speed of travel which most affects the time that it takes to get to work. As a result, those who live in the central cities of the twelve largest metropolitan areas spend the longest time getting to work and back, because the closer one is to the center and the larger the urban area, the slower the travel speeds.     

Brave New Worlds: Philosophy,Politics, and Science in Human Biotechnology

Advances in biotechnology have important applications to the core demographic concerns of human reproduction and longevity, raising a number of difficult ethical issues. In the debate over those issues, however, the voices of demographers and other social scientists are nearly silent. In the United States the dominant bioethical arguments currently heard come from a conservative political and ideological position, represented, for example, by the President's Council on Bioethics and in particular by its chairman, Leon Kass. A critical discussion of Kass's writings identifies the philosophical roots of that position and highlights its logic and limits. Kass's specific arguments on cloning can be challenged by applying them to an earlier and revolutionary technology, birth control; his views on death and dying would argue for curtailing investment in life‐extending technology. Conservatism of this kind ignores social science perspectives and forecloses opportunities for social change.     

Growing up at centrepoint: retrospective accounts of childhood spent at an intentional community

A qualitative analysis of the accounts of 29 adults who grew up in a controversial New Zealand community identified positive and negative experiences and their psychological implications. In addition to highly publicized child sexual abuse that occurred at Centrepoint, children also experienced parental neglect, psychological manipulation, illegal drug use and stigma from the broader society. These factors created an adverse matrix that facilitated sexual abuse. Positive experiences included support for vulnerable families and children, recreational activities, and the opportunity to develop communication skills. While there may be positive experiences for children living in intentional communities such as this one, it is important to be aware of the potential for psychological harm to children in communities with powerful, shared systems of belief, skepticism about the broader society, and strong dynamics of dependence. These findings may have implications for other similar communities operating elsewhere in the world.     

Adventure-based programming: exemplary youth development practice

Despite functioning on the periphery of academic scholarship, theory development, and rigorous science, the better adventure-based programs are functioning at the forefront of professional youth practices. This article links the core elements and processes of adventure programs to the literature on positive youth development and quality youth programming. Contemporary work on developmental systems theory, developmental cascades, and initiative are well aligned with the historical, philosophical, and pro-grammatic roots of adventure education. In addition, adventure programs afford some powerful experiences by way of distinct features such as isolation, dosage, different physical environments, holistic approaches, social experiences, and program novelty. This combination of features often provides a microcosm for youth to live, learn, experiment, and grow. Despite the strengths in prototypical adventure programs, they remain less accessible and are not easily delivered to many youth. Although there are clearly differences in adventure program and other youth activities, many of the qualities of adventure programs can be included in a broader and more accessible spectrum of youth opportunities. This article thus explains the congruency between the literature on positive youth development and adventure programs and generalizes current tenets of adventure programs to the broader context of youth practice. It is time to recognize the important role that adventure programs play for many youth and fully embrace what these diverse and successful programs can teach the general field of positive youth development.     

Leveraging Supply Chain Integration through Planning Comprehensiveness: An Organizational Information Processing Theory Perspective

This study extends prior research on supply chain planning and integration by examining the underlying capabilities by which firms exploit the information they gain from integration activities. We use organizational information processing theory (OIPT) to develop hypotheses that identify the comprehensiveness of an organization's supply chain planning capabilities as an important mediator in the relationship between its supply chain integration activities and its operational performance. Further, our interpretation of OIPT suggests that an organization's usage of technology‐enabled supply chain management systems (SCMS) moderates these effects. Using survey data from 445 global firms, we estimate the corresponding moderated‐mediation structural model. The results indicate that usage of SCMS enables organizations to better utilize the information they gain from external integration efforts (relationships with customers and suppliers), thus improving the comprehensiveness of their supply chain planning capabilities. In contrast, the use of SCMS appears to be a partial substitute for internal integration as a driver of planning comprehensiveness. Most importantly, the results suggest that planning comprehensiveness is a significant generative means by which integration and technology investments produce superior operational performance. These findings provide a richer and more theoretically grounded explanation of relationships between supply chain integration, supply chain planning, and operational performance.     

The Roles of Supply Chain Intelligence and Adaptability in New Product Launch Success

Many new product introductions continue to be unsuccessful, and while researchers have studied product development processes, relatively few studies directly address new product launch. We do so in the present research and posit that supply chain intelligence, defined as technological and competitive knowledge sourced and integrated from suppliers, customers, and competitors, plays an important role in explaining new product launch success. We further employ the knowledge‐based view to theorize that both supply chain adaptability and product innovation capability act as important mediators of the effects of supply chain intelligence on new product launch success and firm financial performance. While the former capability refers to a firm's ability to quickly adjust its supply chain to react to market and product design changes, the latter refers to the firm's proficiency in developing innovative new products. We test hypothesized relationships among these factors utilizing data collected in a survey of 229 U.S. manufacturing firms. Results point to the central role of supply chain adaptability in capturing the benefits of supplier technological intelligence for enhanced product innovation capability, new product launch success, and firm financial performance. In contrast, product innovation capability serves as the generative means by which customer and competitor intelligence is translated into more successful new product launches, which, in turn, produce superior firm financial performance. Overall, these findings contribute to a better understanding of factors that can explain why certain product launches are more successful than others, and offer practical insights for appropriate investments in the development of related knowledge resources.     

Prioritizing and Monitoring Concurrent Project Work: Effects on Switching Behavior

Project switching occurs when a multi‐project worker shifts his/her attention from one project to another before completing the first project. In this study, we study the effects of two areas of management policy on project switching behavior, project prioritization, and work monitoring. We conduct a controlled experiment to evaluate direct and combined effects of prioritization, scheduled progress checks, and managerial progress checks on project switching behavior in a distributed, multi‐project work environment. We use computerized tasks constituting multiple projects as a means of efficiently simulating a project work setting. Working professionals served as subjects for the experiment, thereby enabling us to control for experience and other individual differences that may vary across workers in real‐world projects. We find that clarifying priorities has little overall effect on the prevalence of switching in our multi‐project setting, while the presence of managerial progress checks has significant and distinct impacts, driving up switch tendencies. Interestingly, various attributes of the timing of these monitoring events also significantly impact the likelihood that workers will switch in response to these event triggers. We discuss the implications of these findings for managerial practice and for future research.