E-optimal designs for three treatments

E-optimality is studied for three treatments in an arbitrary n-way heterogeneity setting. In some cases maximal trace designs cannot be E-optimal. When there is more than one E-optimal design for a given setting, the best with respect to all reasonable criteria is determined.     

A new mixture model for capture heterogeneity

Summary.  We propose a mixture of binomial and beta–binomial distributions for estimating the size of closed populations. The new mixture model is applied to several real capture–recapture data sets and is shown to provide a convenient, objective framework for model selection. The new model is compared with three alternative models in a simulation study, and the results shed light on the general performance of models in this area. The new model provides a robust flexible analysis, which automatically deals with small capture probabilities.     

The weight of the rich: improving surveys using tax data

The Journal of Economic Inequality - Household surveys often fail to capture the top tail of income and wealth distributions, as evidenced by studies based on tax data. Yet to date there is no...     

The Identification of Behaviour Disorder within the Community

In the absence of a clinical definition of Behaviour Disorder, those termed ‘Behaviourally Disordered’ are often considered unsuitable for psychiatric servicing and many end up inappropriately contained by the correctional system. The working definitions of 213 South Australian health and welfare professionals from six client areas (child/adolescent, psychiatric, intellectually disabled, brain-damaged, correctional and general) were surveyed. Respondents generally saw Behaviour Disorder as a recognisable disorder, involving both aggressive, disruptive behaviour and deficits in social adaptation. Perceptions of its presentation varied across client groups and across professional roles. The results highlighted a need for specialised community servicing for this group.     

Three-stage designs for monitoring clinical trials

Optimal three-stage designs with equal sample sizes at each stage are presented and compared to fixed sample designs, fully sequential designs, designs restricted to use the fixed sample critical value at the final stage, and to modifications of other group sequential designs previously proposed in the literature. Typically, the greatest savings realized with interim analyses are obtained by the first interim look. More than 50% of the savings possible with a fully sequential design can be realized with a simple two-stage design. Three-stage designs can realize as much as 75% of the possible savings. Without much loss in efficiency, the designs can be modified so that the critical value at the final stage equals the usual fixed sample value while maintaining the overall level of significance, alleviating some potential confusion should a final stage be necessary. Some common group sequential designs, modified to allow early acceptance of the null hypothesis, are shown to be nearly optimal in some settings while performing poorly in others. An example is given to illustrate the use of several three-stage plans in the design of clinical trials.     

Strategic Planning for Support Services for Children with a Parent or Close Relative in Prison

It has long been recognized that children with a parent or close relative in prison are more likely to experience educational difficulties, emotional distress, family breakdown and a substantial reduction in family income (Boswell 2002; Smith et al. 2007; Morgan et al. 2013b; Morgan and Gill 2013). Consequently, children with a parent in prison are more likely to require support from statutory services, especially education and social care. However, statutory support for this group of children is sparse, and children of prisoners tend not to be identified as a priority group. The demand on local authorities to spend their limited budgets wisely means tough decisions have to be made. These decisions are not taken in a vacuum: they are taken in a context of local need, consumer representation, central and local politics; underpinned by the values and attitudes of individual members as well as by the ethos or culture of the local authority itself. In this article we apply Axford's typology (2009) of the different cultures which underpin local authority service provision to data from a research study carried out in 2011 in one local authority which explored support provision in schools for children of prisoners. We examine the contradictions and gaps within the local authority's attempts to synergize the different modules of service delivery into a coherent pattern of provision, and we explore how changes in strategic culture might lead to improvements being made in terms of service delivery to this group of ‘vulnerable’ children.     

Mood and Audience Effects on Video Lottery Terminal Gambling

Little is known about the situational factors associated with gambling behavior. We induced 180 male participants (mean age: 21.6) into a positive, negative, or neutral mood prior to gambling on a video lottery terminal (VLT). While gambling, participants were observed by either a male peer, female peer, or no one. Induced mood had no effect on gambling behavior. Participants induced into a negative mood prior to gambling, however, reported more positive moods after gambling, whereas those with positive and neutral moods reported more negative moods after gambling. Participants observed by either a male or female peer spent less time gambling on the VLT compared to those not observed. Participants observed by a female peer lost less money relative to the other observer conditions. Degree of problem gambling in the last year had little influence on these effects. Some practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys

The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974–1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.