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121.
Ana Rita Salgueiro Henrique Garcia Pereira Maria‐Teresa Rico Gerado Benito Andrés Díez‐Herreo 《Risk analysis》2008,28(1):13-23
A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations. 相似文献
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123.
Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo Pablo de Pedraza José Ignacio Antón Luis Alberto Rivas 《International social security review》2011,64(1):73-93
This article aims to offer an ex ante evaluation of the impact of a parametric reform of the Spanish pension system that would involve increasing the reference period used to calculate benefits, an approach proposed many times by various actors in the socio‐economic field. Such gradual change may be categorized as a non‐structural reform of the pension system. This contrasts with reforms of a structural nature that have been very popular in Latin America and elsewhere, involving the creation of defined contribution individual account schemes. As regards the parametric reform proposed in this article, the main findings indicate that it would have a small but negative impact on pension income for pensioners and would reduce income distribution. 相似文献
124.
This study evaluates the role of imperfect competition in determining the agri-food policies impact assessment outcomes. In most impact studies, the supply chain between agricultural production and final consumption is modelled in a perfectly competitive framework. However, there is a growing attention of stakeholders for the presence of imperfectly competitive markets, with the retail sector often being under investigation. This issue is empirically analysed with an application to the dairy industry. First, the degree of market power is estimated using a multi-output demand and price transmission equation system. Then, this model is used for policy simulation with the perfect competition outcome taken as a benchmark to evaluate the impact of imperfect competition. Results show a significant degree of market power in the dairy industry with implications on the projected policy scenarios. Moreover, the imperfect competition model alters the price transmission mechanisms, generating more flexible price trends. 相似文献
125.
We critically review the Better Life Index (BLI) recently introduced by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We discuss methodological issues in the definition of the criteria used to rank the countries, as well as in their aggregation method. Moreover, we explore the unique option offered by the BLI to apply one's own weight set to 11 criteria. Although 16 countries can be ranked first by choosing ad hoc weightings, only Canada, Australia and Sweden do so over a substantial fraction of the parameter space defined by all possible weight sets. Furthermore, most pairwise comparisons between countries are insensitive to the choice of the weights. Therefore, the BLI establishes a hierarchy among the evaluated countries, independent of the chosen set of weights. 相似文献
126.
Henrique Pereira Pedro Alexandre Costa 《Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research》2016,29(2):205-217
Background: Despite growing acceptance of same-sex sexuality in Portugal, identity development of lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) individuals is still restricted by negative societal attitudes, which maintain the experience of stigmatization and discrimination. The purpose of this study is to document the frequency of discriminatory events experienced by sexual minorities and their association with indicators of physical and mental health in Portugal. Methods: A total of 610 LGB participants completed an online survey (mean age?=?34.48, SD?=?11.54). Most participants were single and self-identified as gay (73.8%). The survey included five categories of survey items: demographic information, social support, physical health, mental health, and discrimination experiences. Results: Physical and mental health results revealed that bisexual people were more likely to report higher levels of psychological distress than gay men. Overall, between one-fifth and one-fourth of the participants in this sample frequently felt the need to hide their sexual orientation to prevent discrimination experiences across the different settings. Regarding actual discrimination experiences, close to 20% reported having suffered from verbal abuse, followed by close to 10% who suffered from written threats, harassment, and physical threats. A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the effects of anticipated and actual discrimination on mental health. Possible confounding variables were added in the first block – age, sexual orientation, being in a relationship, body mass index, and HIV status. Anticipated and actual discrimination experiences were added in the second block. The first block of the analysis explained 6% of the overall variance, while the second block – discrimination experiences – explained an additional 17%. Conclusion: Portuguese culture and stigma/discrimination create discriminatory experiences which impact LGB people's health. Unless policies are changed to allow for the acceptance of LGB people, they will continue to experience violence and discrimination as a result of homophobia. 相似文献
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128.
Despites decades of research, past studies focusing on the effects of vividness on persuasion found mixed and contradictory results. In order to solve this conflicting issue, a meta-analysis was conducted on empirical studies assessing the impact of vivid (vs. pallid) communications on attitude and/or behavioral intention. Overall, 27 articles (k = 43; N = 7575) were included. Our results showed that vividness yielded significant small-to-medium effect on both attitude (d+ = .31) and behavioral intention (d+ = .39). Furthermore, meta-regression analyses indicated that memory recall, cognitive elaboration, and topic valence moderated these effects, whereas vividness/argument congruency was not significantly related to the variations of effects sizes. Finally, theoretical implications of theses finding will be discussed. 相似文献
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130.
Crude oil and natural gas depletion may be modelled by a diffusion process based upon a constrained life-cycle. Here we consider
the Generalized Bass Model. The choice is motivated by the realistic assumption that there is a self-evident link between
oil and gas extraction and the spreading of the modern technologies in wide areas such as transport, heating, cooling, chemistry
and hydrocarbon fuels consumption. Such a model may include deterministic or semi-deterministic regulatory interventions.
Statistical analysis is based upon nonlinear methodologies and more flexible autoregressive structure of residuals. The technical
aim of this paper is to outline the meaningful hierarchy existing among the components of such diffusion models. Statistical
effort in residual component analysis may be read as a significant confirmation of a well-founded diffusion process under
rare but strong deterministic shocks. Applications of such ideas are proposed with reference to world oil and gas production
data and to particular regions such as mainland U.S.A., U.K., Norway and Alaska. The main results give new evidence in time-peaks
location and in residual
times to depletion. 相似文献