Knox meets Cox: Adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies

Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However, demographers have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox’s space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset of fertility decline in Brazil over 1960–2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects.     

Portuguese Scientists’ Migration: a study on the 2008 crisis aftermath

In the economic and social aftermath of the 2008 crisis there has been an important and growing new wave of highly qualified Portuguese emigration comprising scientists. No or very few public policies have been designed to reverse this phenomenon, risking the consequences of brain drain. International literature argues that professional reasons are central to scientists’ decision to migrate, even after the 2008 crisis. Spending some time in a foreign country to study, research, or teach, is perceived as a common step in an individual academic trajectory and an advantage for a successful professional career in academia. It is also encouraged by European Union policies. Twelve individual portraits of Portuguese scientists living in central Europe reveal how important other factors are to the migration decision‐making process. These factors include the economic crisis, student mobility programmes, and the current Portuguese scientific system revision.     

Introduction: decolonising the “undecolonisable”? Portugal and the independence of Lusophone Africa

In 2015, Lusophone Africa celebrated 40 years since independence. Portuguese colonies in Africa became independent in the aftermath of two orders of interlinked events. The first was the fierce-armed opposition to the colonial order – through the action of nationalist movements and nationalist thinkers such as Amílcar Cabral – which escalated after 1960 when French and English colonies in Africa were achieving independence. The second was the Carnation Revolution, in 1974, which, despite having taken place in Lisbon, had powerful reverberations across Portuguese Africa. Here, I argue that the Carnation Revolution was a by-product of the emergence of nationalist movements in Africa, when it became apparent that popular uprisings there could not be won by conventional armed struggle. Or, to put it slightly different, anticolonial struggle in Africa opened the way not only for the end of Portuguese rule on the continent, but also for the demise of dictatorship in Portugal itself.     

Factors Preventing Gridlock in Chilean Couples’ Relationships Based on the Discourse of Couples Therapists and Highly Adjusted Couples

The term gridlock describes the occurrence of rigid patterns in couples’ conflict. This study aimed to describe strategies of conflict resolution and gridlock prevention from the perspectives of couples and couple therapists. Participants were couple therapists and highly adjusted couples scored by the dyadic adjustment scale (DAS), distributed according to traditional and non‐traditional position in life and duration of relationships. Conflict gridlock scenarios were used to create video stimulus that were presented to participants. A qualitative methodology was used to analyse couples’ and therapists’ commentaries on the scenarios. Results showed differences in preventing conflict gridlock among sub‐groups of couples. Long‐term traditional couples focused on loyalty to a common project and value sacrificing to a higher good; long‐term non‐traditional couples prioritised caring and validating the bond in the relationship. Short‐term traditional couples focused on mutual love and the relief of hurt while short‐term non‐traditional couples supported the value of equity.     

The Impact of Remittances on Nutritional Status of Children in Ecuador1

This work analyzes the impact of remittances on nutritional status of children aged <5 years old in Ecuador in 2006. Using a set of anthropometric indicators constructed according to the new World Health Organization standards, the last household survey available for this country, and an instrumental variables strategy controlling for endogeneity of remittances, this study finds a positive and significant effect of remittance income on short-term and middle-term child nutritional status; nevertheless, no significant impact on long-run anthropometric indicators.     

Social Competence in Preschool Children: Replication of Results and Clarification of a Hierarchical Measurement Model

This study tested assumptions and conclusions reached in an earlier confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) study of the social competence (SC) construct for preschool children. Two samples (total N = 408; a new Portuguese sample and one from US samples that had participated in the original study) contributed data. Seven SC indicators were tested for mean differences across age, sex, and sample. Significant sex differences were found for peer acceptance (favoring girls) and for initiating affectively neutral interactions (boys had higher rates), and the sex by sample interaction also was significant for initiating interactions (i.e., effect significant only in the Portuguese sample). In CFAs, the hypothesized structure of SC fits the data and was invariant across sample and age within sample in both measurement and structural tests. The model was invariant at the measurement level for sex within sample tests, but not at the structural level. The results replicate and extend understandings of SC reported in the original study.     

The voter who wasn’t there: Referenda,representation and abstention

We analyze single binary-choice voting rules and identify the presence of the No-Show paradox in this simple setting, as a consequence of specific turnout or quorum conditions that are included in actual rules. Since these conditions are meant to ensure a representative outcome, we formalize this concern and reach our main result: no voting rule can ensure representation if abstention is possible, unless restrictive assumptions are made on the preference domain of abstainers. We then focus on the main referendum systems and show that appropriate restrictions do make them compatible with representation. The main purpose of our paper is, however, to provide a tool for referendum design: rather than imposing arbitrary restrictions on the preference domain of non-voters, we recommend instead that a conscious choice be made on how abstention is to be interpreted and that this choice be used to derive the corresponding referendum rule.The idea for this paper started with some jocose but insightful notes written by José João Marques da Silva at the time of the first referendum held in Portugal (1998). When José João passed away in August 2000, ISEG lost a bright, interested and friendly scholar. May we dedicate this paper to his memory. This paper was presented at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society and Economic Science Association, San Diego, CA and a preliminary version was presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society, Paris. We would like to thank Mathew Braham, Moshé Machover, Eric Maskin, Vincent Merlin, Hannu Nurmi, Katri Sieberg, Frank Steffen, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual proviso applies.     

Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal

Confidence in general and consumer confidence in particular are subject to increasing interest by many agents, including central banks and governments at the national level, and supranational entities, such as the European Commission of the European Union. Although the academic community shares this interest, the extant literature focuses on the use of consumer confidence to predict variables that describe aspects of the business cycle, such as consumption. Unlike this body of work, the objective of our paper is to analyse the evolution of consumer confidence in Portugal and examine the factors that underpin its formation. Using monthly and quarterly data over the period January 1987 to December 2009, we find that consumer confidence in Portugal is essentially explained by the economic performance, the entrance in the Euro zone and electoral circumstances.