The statistician and the computer

This paper reviews the impact of the computer on the analysis and interpretation of data. It suggests the need for professonal statisticians to recognize that almost all future analysis of data will be carried out by non-statisticians with the aid of statistical program packages. Therefore, the emphasis of statistical training for scientists, engineers, administrators and decision-makers should be on the design of data collection and the choice of appropriate methods of analysis. Both in the teaching of statistics and in the development of computer programs for statistical analysis there are important and urgent tasks to be addressed by professional statisticians.     

Comparison of the Cancer Risk of Methylene Chloride Predicted from Animal Bioassay Data with the Epidemiologic Evidence

Methylene chloride has been shown to be a lung and liver carcinogen in the mouse; yet, the current epidemiologic data show no adverse health effects associated with chronic exposure to this compound. Hearne et al. have compared the results of a large mortality study on occupational exposure to methylene chloride to the human risk predictions based on the rodent bioassay to point out the inconsistency between the animal toxicologic and human epidemiologic data. The maximum number of lung and liver cancers predicted due to methylene chloride exposure based on the rodent bioassay data was 24 compared to 14 deaths from these cancers actually observed in the Hearne et al. epidemiology study. We assess the minimum risk detectable by the human study in order to calculate the upperbound potency of methylene chloride and compare it to the potency derived from the bioassay data. Results from the epidemiology study imply an upperbound potency of 1.5 x 10(-2) per ppm, compared to 1.4 x 10(-2) per ppm calculated using the most conservative analysis of the animal data. We conclude that the negative epidemiology study of Hearne et al. is not sufficiently powerful to show that the risk is inconsistent with the human risk estimated by modeling the rodent bioassay data. Specifically, the doses to which the workers were exposed, the population studied, and the latency period were not adequate to determine that the risks are outside the bounds of the risk estimates predicted by low-dose modeling of the animal data.     

On comparing two methods for approximate conditional inference

Approximate conditional inference for a real parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters was examined from a sample-space differential viewpoint in Fraser and Reid (1988) and a conditional inference procedure was proposed. Conditional likelihood-based inference in the same setting was discussed in Cox and Reid (1987), where emphasis was placed on orthogonalizing the nuisance parameter to the parameter of interest. In this paper the sample-space partitions of the two methods are examined for the case that the minimal sufficient statistic has the same dimension as the parameter space. The methods are identical if observed and expected information gives the same orthogonality; an example indicates how they can differ more generally. A specially chosen reparameterization provides some geometrical insight to the methods and allows a comparison in terms of score functions and locally defined orthogonal parameters.     

Mixture designs for five components in orthogonal blocks

The methods developed by John and Draper et al. of partitioning the blends (runs) of four mixture components into two or more orthogonal blocks when fitting quadratic models are extended to mixtures of five components. The characteristics of Latin squares of side five are used to derive rules for reliably and quickly obtaining designs with specific properties. The designs also produce orthogonal blocks when higher order models are fitted.     

THE IMPACT OF BAD WRITING IN ECONOMICS

We find significant style differences between articles written by economists for their professional journals and articles by the same economists in the Wall Street Journal. We find no evidence that style influences the professional success of economists, which suggests that the private rewards to improving the quality of writing are low. Indeed, each community of scholars has probably adopted a "professionally correct" writing style, from which its members diverge little. However, scholars do alter their rhetorical style to communicate effectively with audiences other than the professional community. This suggests that intra- and inter-group (written) communication by economists is efficient.