On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series I. Asymptotics

Various test statistics are discussed which can be used for detecting changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series. In this first part of our study, the limiting behavior of the test statistics is derived under the null hypothesis of no change as well as under alternatives. In a forthcoming second part of our investigation, these asymptotic results will be compared to some corresponding bootstrap procedures, and a small simulation study will be conducted.     

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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold-Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization

A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al ., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683–700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France in a second-order Monte Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold-smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12,453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose-response model. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold-smoked salmon contaminated with L. monocytogenes. Under the modeling assumptions, risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step), whereas reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold chain do not seem to be promising strategies. An attempt to apply the recent risk-based concept of FSO (food safety objective) on this example underlines the ambiguity in practical implementation of the risk management metrics and the need for further elaboration on these concepts.     

Attenuating Initial Beliefs: Increasing the Acceptance of Anthropogenic Climate Change Information by Reflecting on Values

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self‐affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self‐affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts.     

Reporting to the police by Hispanic victims of violence

Though reporting violence to the police has been extensively investigated, the nature of Hispanic reporting of victimization has not. This is surprising because Hispanics are the fastest growing and largest ethnic group in the United States. Using over a decade of data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, this article investigates Hispanic reporting of victimization relative to non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, American Indians, and Asians. Findings show that Hispanics are significantly less likely to report the most serious of violence compared to non-Hispanic Whites, but are more likely than non-Hispanic Whites to report simple assaults. Few reporting differences between Hispanics and other victim groups were observed. In addition, analyses indicate a positive relationship between educational attainment and reporting by Hispanics-a predictor not shared by any other group.     

Strengths-Based Approach and Coping Strategies used by Parents Whose Young Children Exhibit Violent Behaviour: Collaboration Between Schools and Parents

This research study explores the strategies adopted by 60 parents of children between 3 and 9 years of age considered to have engaged in violent behaviour, within the meaning of the Safe Schools Act (Ontario Ministry of Education, Canada, 2000). This legal framework requires parents to be involved in the decisions concerning their children. Parents’ perceptions of their involvement lead them to develop coping strategies enabling them to play a more active role in such decision making. This article analyzes their perceptions according to a strengths-based approach and seeks to provide a mediation perspective to social work practice with families.

Far from a Burden: EU Migrants as Pioneers of a European Social Protection System from Below

At a time when the belief in a welfare crisis is being connected to a so-called “migration crisis”, in particular in the United Kingdom, it is important to look at the lived experiences of mobile EU citizens and the influence of transnational social protection practices. The article introduces the concept of a “migration-welfare corridor” – as opposed to the widespread welfare magnet hypothesis – taking into consideration the role of welfare systems in origin and destination countries at different stages of a migrant's life cycle, the changing nature of the welfare habitus as well as migrants’ attitudes towards what can be defined as welfare chauvinism. Looking specifically at the case of Spanish and Polish migrants in the UK who have reacted to this protracted environment of deterrence, particularly in respect to their welfare rights, this paper discusses several dimensions that should be taken into consideration when analyzing transnational social protection practices from below.