Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico

In many rural regions of developing countries, natural resource dependency means changes in climate patterns hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. When environmentally‐based livelihood options are constrained, migration can become an important adaptive strategy. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we model U.S. emigration from rural communities as related to community, household and climate factors. The results suggest that households subjected to very recent drought conditions are less likely to send a U.S. migrant, but in communities with drought two years prior and with strong migration histories, emigration is much more likely. In regions lacking such social networks, rainfall deficits actually reduce migration propensities, perhaps reflecting constraints in the ability to engage in migration as a coping strategy. Policy implications emphasize diversification of rural Mexican livelihoods in the face of contemporary climate change.     

Policing in Johannesburg after apartheid

This paper traces the genealogy of the “double paradigm shift” that transformed policing in Johannesburg after apartheid: from public to private and from reactive to proactive. The emergence of a market for residential security services led to the growth of a private security industry and a reconfiguration of urban governance. Responding to a growing demand for “proactive” security services, private security companies have recently begun innovating with new approaches to preventative security. These companies operate in a liminal zone of questionable legality, targeting poor black men as potential criminals to be excluded from the neighbourhoods of their clients.     

Private property and the problem of the miraculous: the kramats and the city of Cape Town

This paper seeks to explore the place of kramats the graves of Muslim saints or Auliyah – in the landscape of contemporary Cape Town. The kramat sites have been proclaimed as heritage sites because of their importance as tangible signs of Islam at the Cape. At the same time, the process of the kramats becoming heritage sites has contained moments of intense, often sensational, public contestation. Offering a reading of the discourses surrounding two contested kramats in Cape Town, this paper explores the way kramats mark out a miraculous space in the prosaic modern city and introduce into the post-apartheid evaluation of heritage, alternative conceptions of space and notions of temporality. They are sites of impossibility where, it is claimed, the laws of nature themselves are interrupted to mark the intangible particularities of the site. This paper explores what happens when this miraculous space is subject to the demands of private property and municipal law and the conflicts that arise from this collision of different conceptual and experiential modalities. It considers the effects of the entanglement of legend and history that result from the production of these sites as heritage in a market-driven economy.     

Improving utilisation of Māori land: Challenges and successes in the application of a participatory approach

Abstract

The limited impact of traditional extension techniques has resulted in the increasing use of participatory approaches to support interaction between Māori communities and scientists. This paper draws on the experience of a 5 year case study of such an approach among scientists and Māori on the East Cape. While supporting the value of a participatory approach, the paper argues that the adoption and use of such an approach must be viewed as an iterative process and one that challenges all participants, not only on operational detail, but on the ethical issues posed by such work. This paper highlights the value of a collaborative approach but questions the appropriateness of branding all such approaches as participatory research when used to support national policy initiatives. It concludes that participatory approaches challenge the scientists involved as much as the communities concerned and questions the validity of conventional measures of success in any evaluation of such work.     

Scottish sovereignty and the union of 1707: Then and now

This article discusses the history of Scottish sovereignty as a component of Scottish identity. The argument is that certain aspects of Scottish sovereignty were preserved by the union, and that these have often remained latent until the devolution settlement. The new political landscape in the UK has contributed to a redevelopment of ideas of British parliamentary sovereignty, which have served to render these elements of preserved Scottish sovereignty active, and this new state of affairs is reflected in the findings of the Calman Commission. In this context, what is independence?     

Census adjustment and the distribution of federal spending

In 1989, programs that use population counts to determine the distribution of their funds transferred $236 per capita to state and local governments. If the 1990 census were adjusted to reflect undercounting, about 40% of state and local governments would receive increased grants averaging $56 per miscounted person; other jurisdictions would lose an almost equal amount of grant money. The surprisingly small reallocations arise because 1) total funds allocated by population are essentially fixed; 2) allocations depend on other factors in addition to population; and 3) programs vary as to whether they allocate funds in direct or inverse proportion to population.     

Logistic retainment interval dose exploration design for Phase I clinical trials of cytotoxic agents

Phase I studies of a cytotoxic agent often aim to identify the dose that provides an investigator specified target dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) probability. In practice, an initial cohort receives a dose with a putative low DLT probability, and subsequent dosing follows by consecutively deciding whether to retain the current dose, escalate to the adjacent higher dose, or de-escalate to the adjacent lower dose. This article proposes a Phase I design derived using a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to this sequential decision-making process. The design consecutively chooses the action that minimizes posterior expected loss where the loss reflects the distance on the log-odds scale between the target and the DLT probability of the dose that would be given to the next cohort under the corresponding action. A logistic model is assumed for the log odds of a DLT at the current dose with a weakly informative t-distribution prior centered at the target. The key design parameters are the pre-specified odds ratios for the DLT probabilities at the adjacent higher and lower doses. Dosing rules may be pre-tabulated, as these only depend on the outcomes at the current dose, which greatly facilitates implementation. The recommended default version of the proposed design improves dose selection relative to many established designs across a variety of scenarios.