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The impact of forecast error magnification on supply chain cost has been well documented. Unlike past studies that measure forecast error in terms of forecast standard deviation, our study extends research to consider the impact of forecast bias, and the complex interaction between these variables. Simulating a two‐stage supply chain using realistic cost data we test the impact of bias magnification comparing two scenarios: one with forecast sharing between retailer and supplier, and one without. We then corroborate findings via survey data. Results show magnification of forecast bias to have a considerably greater impact on supply chain cost than magnification of forecast standard deviation. Particularly damaging is high bias in the presence of high forecast standard deviation. Forecast sharing is found to mitigate the impact of forecast error, however, primarily at higher levels of forecast standard deviation. At low levels of forecast standard deviation the benefits are not significant suggesting that engaging in such mitigation strategies may be less effective when there is little opportunity for improvement in accuracy. Furthermore, forecast sharing is found to be much less effective against high levels of bias. This is an important finding as managers often deliberately bias their forecasts and underscores the importance of exercising caution even with forecast sharing, particularly for forecasts that have inherently large errors. The findings provide a deeper understanding of the impact of forecast errors, suggest limitations of forecast sharing, and offer implications for research and practice alike. 相似文献
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One of the fundamental issues in analyzing microarray data is to determine which genes are expressed and which ones are not for a given group of subjects. In datasets where many genes are expressed and many are not expressed (i.e., underexpressed), a bimodal distribution for the gene expression levels often results, where one mode of the distribution represents the expressed genes and the other mode represents the underexpressed genes. To model this bimodality, we propose a new class of mixture models that utilize a random threshold value for accommodating bimodality in the gene expression distribution. Theoretical properties of the proposed model are carefully examined. We use this new model to examine the problem of differential gene expression between two groups of subjects, develop prior distributions, and derive a new criterion for determining which genes are differentially expressed between the two groups. Prior elicitation is carried out using empirical Bayes methodology in order to estimate the threshold value as well as elicit the hyperparameters for the two component mixture model. The new gene selection criterion is demonstrated via several simulations to have excellent false positive rate and false negative rate properties. A gastric cancer dataset is used to motivate and illustrate the proposed methodology. 相似文献
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Statistical control charts are widely used in the manufacturing industry. The Shewhart-type control charts are developed to improve the monitoring process mean by using the double quartile-ranked set sampling, quartile double-ranked set sampling, and double extreme-ranked set sampling methods. In terms of the average run length, the performance of the proposed control charts are compared with the existing control charts based on simple random sampling, ranked set sampling and extreme-ranked set sampling methods. An application of real data is also considered to investigate the performance of the suggested process mean control charts. The findings of the study revealed that the newly suggested control charts are superior to the existing counterparts. 相似文献
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Joseph G. Ibrahim 《The American statistician》2013,67(4):333-337
Utilizing the notion of matching predictives as in Berger and Pericchi, we show that for the conjugate family of prior distributions in the normal linear model, the symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence between two particular predictive densities is minimized when the prior hyperparameters are taken to be those corresponding to the predictive priors proposed in Ibrahim and Laud and Laud and Ibrahim. The main application for this result is for Bayesian variable selection. 相似文献
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Based on a sample from an absolutely continuous distribution F with density f, and with the aid of the Bahadur (Ann. Math. Statist. 37( 1966 ), 577-580) representation of sample quantiles, the asymptotic joint distribution of three statistics, the sample pth and qth quantiles (0 < p < q < l) and the sample mean, is obtained. Using the Cramer-Wold device, asymptotic distributions of functions of the three statistics can be derived. In particular, the asymptotic joint distribution of the ratio of sample pth quantile to sample mean and the ratio of sample qth quantile to sample mean is presented. Finally, consistent estimators are proposed for the variances and covariances of these limiting distributions. 相似文献