基于网络搜索数据的房地产价格预测

本文以北京、上海、天津、重庆等16个大中城市的二手房价格和新房价格为研究对象,以来自我国最大搜索引擎的百度搜索指数为数据基础,使用6种计量模型分别对16个城市的二手房价格和新房价格进行了拟合和预测,得到预测二手房和新房价格变动情况的最优模型.结果显示:网络搜索数据不但能够较好地预测房价指数,而且能够分析经济主体行为的趋势与规律,有一定的时效性.预测的月度房地产价格能够比官方数据发布提前约两周时间.     

Errors of misclassification associated with the inverse gaussion distribution

Errors of misclassification and their probabilities are studied for classification problems associated with univariate inverse Gaussian distributions. The effects of applying the linear discriminant function (LDF), based on normality, to inverse Gaussian populations are assessed by comparing probabilities (optimum and conditional) based on the LDF with those based on the likelihood ratio rule (LR) for the inverse Gaussian, Both theoretical and empirical results are presented     

An Ecological Approach to Racial Environments and Their Relationship to Mental Health

Although research has demonstrated that aspects of racial environments such as racial experiences and racial diversity can relate to psychological health and well-being, few studies have examined what specifically happens when individuals move from one racial environment to another. The present study asked 179 African Americans transitioning to a predominantly white institution (freshmen or junior transfers) about racial diversity (percentage of African Americans) at their prior institution, racial experiences at their prior institution, and racial experiences at the current institution and examined how these characteristics related to self-reported depression. Overall, we found that more negative previous racial experiences predicted greater depressive symptoms in college. Results also revealed a significant three-way interaction such that more positive current racial experiences predicted less depressive symptoms, but only for those students coming from predominantly negative racial environments—low racial diversity and more negative racial experiences. Our findings highlight the complex role of past and present racial environmental factors in influencing psychological health. Implications for African American college students’ success and well-being are discussed.     

空间变革下的生计策略与养老保障 ——基于易地搬迁老年移民养老方式的考察

易地搬迁作为国家精准扶贫的重要手段,旨在通过行政手段有计划地实行移民搬迁以解决“一方水土养不活一方人”的地区发展困境。易地搬迁中的老年移民因健康状况、文化程度、语言能力、生计方式和收入水平等因素,在安置地面临着更多困境与挑战。在市场化与新型城镇化渗透的后乡土社会,搬迁老年移民不仅面临着新家园的社会适应与融入问题,还面临着生计方式、代际支持与养老模式的变动。随着人口流动的频繁与搬迁上楼后远离土地的现实,移民社区空心化现象严重,老年移民脱离土地和代际支持而转向追求自我保障和社会支持的养老策略。家庭结构的核心化使养老空间逐渐进入从家庭到自我、家庭到社区、社区到社会的衍变与扩展。因此,需要拓展老年移民收入保障渠道、完善老有所养的社会保障政策和服务体系、建立阻断返贫的监测机制与可持续发展长效机制,实现对老年移民脱贫致富的共建共享,促进老年移民的养老保障与社会融入。     

句子结构分析与翻译优化

提出句子深层结构意义分析有助于英语语篇理解及英汉翻译.理解层面不同,翻译效果各异.优秀的译文能使语篇中词、句的本位意义(即深层意义)和文化意义(即语境意义)实现统一和契合.     

“案例报告式”方法在“信息分析与决策支持”课程教学中的实践与探索

针对信息管理与信息系统的专业特色和培养目标,从＂信息分析与决策支持＂课程在信管专业中的重要位置出发,引入了＂案例报告式＂教学方法,对其应用进行了实践与探索。针对现有教学模式的缺点,分析了＂案例报告式＂教学法的优点,从案例准备、＂案例报告式＂教学的组织和实施入手,对＂案例报告式＂教学法的效果进行评价。指出＂案例报告式＂教学方法响应了教育部推行理论与实践相结合的号召。     

反思"热点"现象

社会生活中的“热点”现象值得我们反思。在社会生活中,热点总是与一定时空范围内的重要事物、重大事件、关键问题等等有关,实际上是在一定时空范围内公众的利益、兴趣和趋向的集中反映和表现。一个热点的演化往往经历几个阶段:(1)潜热点;(2)准热点;(3)正热点;(4)余热点;(5)不热点。由社会热点引出思想热点、学术热点,使社会问题在理论层面的理解促进在实践层面的解决,这是现代社会健康发展的重要机制。哲学的热点是社会热点、思想热点、学术热点更集中的反映。从哲学的高度反思“热点”本身,可以使我们的“热点”热得更加自觉,更加有理性。     

Ageing and the changing role of the family and the community: An African perspective

Global ageing, the major social issue of the twenty-first century, will have greater social repercussions for developing countries. The fastest increase of older persons in terms of ratio in relation to younger people is happening in developing countries, and in Africa segregation of older people in rural areas will become manifest. While beneficial changes for women have accompanied modernization in many of the developing countries, the situation of older women appears to be particularly precarious. Social changes brought about by modernization are also profoundly affecting the traditional systems of care for older people. Even though most older people requiring care are still looked after within the informal structures of the family, this can no longer be taken for granted as we move into the new century. This paper critically reviews social protection systems and the resource constraints which characterize developing countries and warns against blind development of social security systems based on those of the industrialized countries. The paper argues for the design of intergenerational support back into mainstream social relations so that older persons are not marginalized and put at risk through social protection programmes which reinforce physical vulnerability stereotypes and stress welfare needs over and above older people's social and economic contributions to society     

组织结构视角下农业社会化服务模式研究

基于组织结构的视角,以第一批全国农业社会化服务典型案例为研究对象,可以将我国现有的优秀农业社会化服务模式大致分为层级型、平台型和网络型三大类.研究发现,平台型和网络型服务模式在带动小农户、拓展服务内容、降低服务成本等方面,明显强于层级型服务模式.但是,平台型和网络型服务模式中的服务内容复杂繁多、所涉及资源要素偏多,往往需要实力较强的龙头企业带动;而层级型服务模式中,很少需要龙头企业等工商资本介入,其对农业社会化服务主体整合服务资源的能力要求偏低,便于农民自发组织开展,在我国很多农村地区更具有推广的可行性.